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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | India’s external sector during the pandemic -CP Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

India’s external sector during the pandemic -CP Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

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published Published on Dec 29, 2020   modified Modified on Dec 30, 2020

-NetworkIdeas.org

The complete absence of any meaningful fiscal response from the Indian government in the face of one of the biggest economic crises ever faced, cries out for explanation. One argument has been that the central government is concerned about its external vulnerability: a large increase in public spending could generate higher imports, thereby worsening the trade deficit at a time when volatile capital flows have already made the balance of payments vulnerable.

Is this fear justified? It is certainly true that India’s external sector has been weak and vulnerable for some time now, and a dramatic exodus of foreign capital from all emerging markets including India in April 2020 was yet another indication of the fickle behaviour of international capital markets. Figure 1 shows that the weakness on the trade front continues, with exports, which slumped in March and April, recovering thereafter but still in October 2020 remaining below the levels of the previous year. However, imports also slumped, largely reflecting the contraction of the domestic economy and the collapse of demand, along with declining world prices for some major imports like oil. As a result, the trade deficit shrunk substantially in the period April to September, with a minor increase in October 2020 as imports grew again while exports fell.

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NetworkIdeas.org, 29 December, 2020, https://www.networkideas.org/featured-articles/2020/12/indias-external-sector-during-the-pandemic/?fbclid=IwAR1_RQ4t4Ro1KIiJNybBJjj2SrOK6NX6jLKf3NnKr3kRaoWz35zoSwkwQaU


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