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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | India’s great poverty debate: Season 2 -Roshan Kishore

India’s great poverty debate: Season 2 -Roshan Kishore

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published Published on Apr 9, 2022   modified Modified on Apr 9, 2022

-Hindustan Times

Almost two and a half years after the 2017-18 Consumption Expenditure Survey (CES) was scrapped, the ‘great Indian poverty debate’ seems to have resurrected itself. The second season of this debate, interestingly, has started from Washington DC, not India.

Poverty statistics in India have always been the subject of controversy. The country saw a big debate on the trend in poverty and the veracity of poverty estimates in the 2000s. Such was the intensity of the debate and the polemics involved that the episode was termed as the “great Indian poverty debate”. It continued through the decade and into the next, but was interrupted when the current government decided to junk the findings of the 2017-18 National Sample Survey’s (NSS) Consumption Expenditure Survey (CES) in November 2019. CES is the official source of data for calculating poverty numbers in India. The latest available CES data is for 2011-12.

Almost two and a half years after the 2017-18 CES was scrapped, the ‘great Indian poverty debate’ seems to have resurrected itself. The second season of this debate, interestingly, has started from Washington DC, not India. Two new working papers, one published by the World Bank and another by IMF, have given drastically different estimates of extreme poverty – it is compatible with the World Bank’s $1.9 purchasing power parity (PPP) poverty line – in India. The World Bank paper puts it at 10%, while the IMF one puts it at 0.86%.

What explains this wide discrepancy? Here are three charts which explain the issues involved in detail.

What are the summary findings of the IMF and World Bank papers?

First, the disclaimer. While these papers have been published by the IMF and the World Bank, they are to be considered as views of the authors and not the institutions.

The World Bank paper’s title is self-explanatory. “Poverty in India has declined over the last decade but not as much as previously thought”, Sutirtha Sinha Roy and Roy van der Weide argue in their paper. The paper gives estimates of poverty in India until 2019 using recalibrated data from the Consumer Pyramid Household Surveys (CPHS) – many economists have argued that the really poor are underrepresented in the CPHS – conducted by the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE). At 10.2%, extreme poverty is 12.3 percentage points lower in 2019 than in 2011, the paper argues.

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Hindustan Times, 9 April, 2022, https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/indias-great-poverty-debate-season-2-101649270552832.html


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