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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Indian Economy is in a Vicious Spiral; Only Way Out is by Empowering Working People -Prabhat Patnaik

Indian Economy is in a Vicious Spiral; Only Way Out is by Empowering Working People -Prabhat Patnaik

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published Published on Jan 30, 2022   modified Modified on Jan 31, 2022

-Newsclick.in

India needs a larger government expenditure on transfers to the working people. For such larger expenditure, resources have to be raised through greatly increased taxation of the rich- a reversal of the perverse fiscal strategy the government has pursued so far.

The Indian economy is currently caught in a vicious spiral of inflation, stagnation and a widening of the fiscal deficit. And this spiral is set to become even more vicious because inter alia of the developments in the world economy.

Even before the current omicron wave, the rate of GDP growth projected by official estimates for 2021-22 over the previous year was 9.2%; but the previous year itself had witnessed a 7.3% contraction because of the pandemic. Hence even if the official projection turns out to be true, the GDP in 2021-22 would be higher than in 2019-20 by only 1.22%, i.e., India would barely recapture its 2019-20-level GDP in 2021-22; but because of the omicron virus, even this would not happen and our current year GDP is likely to still remain below that of 2019-20.

Moreover, whatever recovery of real expenditure over 2019-20 has occurred in the current year has not been in the sphere of household and government consumption, which means that there have been additions to capacity in the interim, even as consumption has remained lower than in 2019-20. This must entail a decrease in the degree of capacity utilisation, in which case the current tempo of investment will not be sustained. 

Hence the level of the investment itself will decline, which will further accentuate the decline in consumption (because of the multiplier) so that even this level of GDP growth relative to 2019-20 will not be sustained.

Thus, the recovery we are witnessing, apart from being utterly meagre, is not even sustainable. Some call it a K-shaped recovery as opposed to a V-shaped one, but whatever it is called, it is clearly a recovery constricted by reduced purchasing power in the hands of the people.

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Newsclick.in, 30 January, 2022, https://www.newsclick.in/indian-economy-vicious-spiral-only-way-out-empowering-working-people?fbclid=IwAR2UPG689AHFqvgTOHQDm-zVh_4FLP5c199Gvadf6Rw3GWVk3RXmZ78tO94


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