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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Jaitley's Tax Argument Isn't a Good Indicator of India's Economic Health -Suyash Rai

Jaitley's Tax Argument Isn't a Good Indicator of India's Economic Health -Suyash Rai

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published Published on Jan 18, 2017   modified Modified on Jan 18, 2017
-TheWire.in

Using tax collection numbers as signifiers of robust economic activity may be highly optimistic.

One of the most interesting questions in Indian macroeconomics today is – how are we faring since late 2016? In this article, I seek to analyse data on tax revenues and obtain some clues about the performance of the economy.

In a press release published on January 9, the central government reported the following increases in tax collections during April-December 2016 compared to the corresponding period of the previous year:

* Central excise duty: 43%
* Service tax: 23.9%
* Customs duty: 4.1%
* Corporation tax: 4.4%
* Income tax: 24.6%

These are large values. Holding other things constant, they suggest buoyant economic activity. However, when looking at tax data, we have to look at the extent to which other things are indeed constant. When analysing tax data, in order to read the state of the macroeconomy, we need to adjust for the part of the tax revenues which are on account of Additional Revenue Mobilisation (ARM). Two kinds of ARM are:

* An increase in tax rate: additional revenues due to higher rate do not indicate the robustness of the underlying activity.

* An administrative measure: additional revenues from one-time administrative measures (eg. a tax amnesty scheme) may not reflect the underlying economic activity.

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TheWire.in, 17 January, 2017, https://thewire.in/100745/jaitleys-tax-argument-isnt-good-indicator-indias-economy-health/


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