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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Low Incomes Haunt India’s Growth -Subodh Varma

Low Incomes Haunt India’s Growth -Subodh Varma

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published Published on Sep 18, 2022   modified Modified on Sep 19, 2022

-Newsclick.in

Three transformative steps could dramatically change this dire situation – provided Modi Govt. has the will to take them.

Wage growth of households has declined from 8.2% in 2012-2016 to 5.7% in 2017-2021, according to a fresh study by a ratings agency. It will actually be even lower – around 1% - if inflation is taken into account. This slowing down of wage growth has happened in both rural and urban areas. In rural areas, wages grew at a meagre 2.8%, while in urban areas, the increase was 5.5%. Once adjusted to prevailing inflation, these growth rates turn negative. In rural areas, inflation-adjusted wage growth was reportedly (-) 3.7%, while in urban areas, it was (-) 1.6%. This means that real wages declined during 2017-21.

Despite the celebration of higher economic growth in recent months, declining incomes mean that people at large do not have sufficient buying power in their hands. These households contribute substantially to economic output, making up 44-45% of Gross Value Added (GVA). Persistent low incomes mean their contribution to aggregate demand is going to be very low. This, in turn, means that the chances of any economic recovery are dim because there will not be sufficient demand in the economy.

Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s homilies to India’s corporate sector to invest more (and thus create more jobs) are going to fall on deaf ears because the corporate sector is enjoying all the concessions and tax cuts that the Modi government has offered without having to invest more. It will not invest more because who will buy? People just don’t have the buying power in their hands.

SCARCE REGULAR SALARIED JOBS

The government has discontinued the publication of consumer expenditure surveys that would be a proxy for household incomes. However, the Periodic Labour Force Surveys (PLFS) do give estimates of the earnings of the three basic types of workers based on their recall of the preceding week’s work status. These three categories are regular salaried workers, casual daily wage earners and self-employed persons.

The latest PLFS annual report published in June this year covers the period April 2020 to March 2021. According to this report, in rural areas, the predominant share of households (55%) is self-employed, largely in agriculture. This is followed by casual labour (24%), which is often seasonal and irregular work on daily wages. Regular, salaried workers make up just 13% of rural households. 

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Newsclick.in, 18 September, 2022, https://www.newsclick.in/Low-Incomes-Haunt-India-Growth?fbclid=IwAR3hQEcHQF0BuCMCvmNRvy5cQeLjgB22hTomQ-TWNBvINv3x0eOwcjhWXqI


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