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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | The myth of India’s import dependence -Rathin Roy

The myth of India’s import dependence -Rathin Roy

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published Published on Jul 3, 2020   modified Modified on Jul 3, 2020

-Business Standard/ NIPFP

In the wake of the growing military tension on the India-China border, there have been calls for boycott of Chinese products. These have little impact on strategic reality. Equally, the plea that India cannot afford to do without Chinese imports is not a truism.
 
If bilateral tensions escalate, then there may be a scenario in which India and China cease to trade. How would the Indian economy be hit in such a situation? That would depend on the extent to which India is able to do without Chinese imports and investment.
 
In this extreme circumstance, the situation is not dire. First, thanks to the Covid pandemic, global trade is declining and India’s exports and imports are falling, the latter more than the former.  So, we are importing less of everything, including from China. Second, organic chemicals are the biggest single import from china; but these can be procured easily, albeit more expensively, from other countries. Imports of electrical machinery from China, the other major strategic good have been declining since 2017 and a combination of falling trade activity, alternative sourcing plus increased domestic production, will enable us to weather any shock. The rest— plastics, smartphones, automobile parts, fast moving consumer goods and toys, among others – essentially feed the consumption of India’s elites and no great harm will be done in a crisis if we consume much less of these. Finally, Chinese inward investment is not large, and the optics of investment in start-ups obscures the fact that they are in strategically insignificant areas like financial services and food delivery operations. It is true that two-thirds of inputs for India’s pharma industry are sourced from China but most of these can easily be made in India, albeit more expensively.

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Business Standard/ NIPFP, 3 July, 2020, https://www.nipfp.org.in/blog/2020/07/03/myth-indias-import-dependence/


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