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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Rebel 'retirement' -- the ground reality -Rumela Sen

Rebel 'retirement' -- the ground reality -Rumela Sen

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published Published on Apr 25, 2018   modified Modified on Apr 25, 2018
-The Hindu Business Line

Informal networks play a key role in building a trust mechanism that dispels the fear in rebels to quit insurgency groups

How do rebels quit armed groups and return to the same political processes they had once sought to overthrow? A lot has been written on why men and women rebel. But we know very little about why and how rebels quit. This is, however, a predominant concern among policy-makers now, from Nepal to Colombia.

In my forthcoming book, I examine this question in the context of the ongoing Maoist insurgency in India. Data show that between 2005 and 2012, 781 rebels quit the Maoist insurgency in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana. By contrast, only 54 rebels in Jharkhand and 39 in West Bengal quit the same insurgent group during the same period.

Moreover, rebel retirement is concentrated in certain districts and not others. For example, retirement in Telangana is very high in Warangal and Khammam districts. Similarly, in Jharkhand it is concentrated in Ranchi and Khunti districts and not others. Factors like policing, development, industrialisation, or insurgent organisation are frequently used to explain why rebels quitting hardly varies between adjacent districts. A negative binomial regression also refutes these conventional explanations.

Instead, membership in civic associations (data obtained from the Indian Human Development Survey) turns out statistically significant in explaining variation in rebel retirement. But what are the causal mechanisms that relate grassroots associational life to rebel retirement?

The term “retirement” was born in the conflict zones of North and South India in 2013-14. The term captures the protracted process of rebel exit better than “surrender” that focusses on the act of relinquishing arms while obfuscating the prolonged bargaining that precedes it.

My central finding is that rebels retire through informal exit networks that grow in the shadow of civic associations in the state-insurgency interface. A lot of Maoists quit in the South due to the emergence of what I call “harmonic” exit networks that weave together multiple stakeholders in an amalgam of roles and alliances to build momentum for exit and manage a myriad of uncertainties of reintegration. By contrast, retirement is very low in the North due to the development of a “discordant” exit network that exacerbates mistrust and fear among key players, deterring retirement significantly.

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The Hindu Business Line, 24 April, 2018, https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/rebel-retirement-the-ground-reality/article23660859.ece?homepage=true


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