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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Union Budget 2022: The Concerns and Numbers Don’t Square Up -Arun Kumar

Union Budget 2022: The Concerns and Numbers Don’t Square Up -Arun Kumar

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published Published on Feb 1, 2022   modified Modified on Feb 2, 2022

-TheWire.in

Much was expected from the Union Budget 2022 which has come at a time when the Indian economy is facing an economic turmoil due to the coronavirus pandemic and battling widespread unemployment and inflation.

High hopes were pinned on this year’s budget as the country saw young people protesting for Railway jobs, farmers protesting for the government to address their loss of incomes, micro-sector producers as they faced closures and PSU workers as they fear loss of jobs due to privatisation. It was expected that the Union Budget would give some relief to these sections by promoting employment in these sectors.

Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman in her speech promised to take care of all these issues, however, the budget numbers suggest that the promises are unlikely to be kept. Allocations have to justify the pronouncements.

At Rs 39.45 lakh crore, the budget expenditure is 15.3% of the projected GDP of Rs 258 lakh crore. For the current year, the revised expenditure of Rs 37.7 lakh crore is 16.2% of the estimated GDP of Rs 232.15 lakh crore. In other words, the expenditures will be proportionately less than what they currently are slated to be.

The budget number of Rs 39.45 lakh crore is based on an 11.1% increase in GDP. But, if the growth projected for the next year is 8.5%, that implies that the inflation rate would be just 2.6%. This is most unlikely given that the inflation is currently at about 5.5% and, it may jump if increased prices in the health and education sector are to be factored in. It is also likely to remain at elevated levels due to high energy prices globally. In other words, the figure of total expenditures is not credible.

The finance minister has also announced a 35% increase in capital expenditure from the budget estimate of Rs 5.5 lakh crore in 2021-22. The revised estimate for the current year is Rs 6.03 lakh crore, which is slated to go up to Rs 7.5 lakh crore. That is an increase of 25%. This is the planned increase over the current year but it is unlikely to materialise given that in the current year, up to November 2021, less than 50% of the planned expenditure had been incurred under this head. To expect that the remainder would be spent in the balance four months is unlikely. So, neither Rs 6.03 lakh crore nor Rs 7.5 lakh crore is expected to be spent.

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TheWire.in, 1 February, 2022, https://thewire.in/government/union-budget-2022-numbers-contradictions-jobs-education-health


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