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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | What the Centre really needs to do if it wants to tackle the economic slowdown -Amiya Kumar Bagchi

What the Centre really needs to do if it wants to tackle the economic slowdown -Amiya Kumar Bagchi

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published Published on Sep 17, 2019   modified Modified on Sep 17, 2019
-TheWire.in

Both the Modi government and former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh are ignoring one crucial aspect of reviving the economy: raising effective demand.

Only a few weeks ago, the central government was talking grandly about India reaching a $5-trillion economy and refusing to recognise the severe slowdown India is going through. (This is not such a grand ambition when compared with China, which is often portrayed as India’s competitor, because by 2025, China’s economy is expected to achieve a GDP of $29 trillion).

Then reality, at last, struck the proud citadels of the Prime Minister’s Office and North Block, at which point finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced a slew of measures. These included retracting the only progressive feature of her budget: the additional surcharge on incomes of the super-rich, reducing the interest on housing loans for government employees, a Rs 20,000 crore stress fund for real estate and sops for exporters.

Recently, these sops have been increased further. Rs 50,000 crore has been allocated for exemptions and support for insurance of exporters. Interest rates for all housing loans have been brought down. At the same time, the government capped foreign investment in digital media at 26% and allowed 100% foreign investment for coal mining, associated infrastructure and sales of fuel.

However, so far, foreign investment has flowed into non-manufacturing sectors such as PayTM, into shopping malls, food and beverages, and so on. So it does not help the government’s ‘Make in India’ project. In fact, in the recent slowdown, the decline in manufacturing  has been a leading factor. Moreover, foreign investment flows tend to hold up the exchange rate of the rupee. As ex-Prime Minister Manmohan Singh pointed out, India should allow the rupee to be devalued.

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TheWire.in, 16 September, 2019, https://thewire.in/political-economy/economic-slowdown-consumption-demand


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