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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Why Recovery at Cost of Worker Immiserisation Won’t Last Long -Prabhat Patnaik

Why Recovery at Cost of Worker Immiserisation Won’t Last Long -Prabhat Patnaik

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published Published on Nov 21, 2020   modified Modified on Nov 22, 2020

-Newsclick.in

GDP recovery from the lockdown-induced abyss is accompanied by significant labour displacement and squeeze on wages, which will impact aggregate demand.

Ministers from Narendra Modi to Nirmala Sitharaman are talking about a recovery of the Indian economy from the pandemic-induced crisis. Even the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), which estimated the second quarter GDP growth to have been -8.6%, has seen signs of recovery in October.

Of course, there had to be a recovery from the deep abyss to which the lockdown had pushed the economy, as some degree of normalcy returned; it is no reflection of any virtue of the government. Even the 8.6% drop in GDP in the second quarter (compared with the previous year’s second quarter), represents a return toward normalcy in the light of the 23.9% drop in GDP (gross domestic product) in the first quarter, compared again with the previous year’s first quarter.

But, while the economy, not surprisingly, is climbing out of the abyss, how far it will climb depends on the nature of the climb itself. And here the inescapable conclusion is that since the recovery is accompanied by significant labour displacement and a squeeze on the wage rate per labour-hour of the working people, leading to a rise in the rate of surplus value, it will get aborted before long.

The RBI’s figure of an 8.6% drop in GDP in the second quarter of 2020-21, is an econometric estimate, not a statistical one, of the sort the government’s National Statistical Office (NSO) normally brings out. The former, unlike the latter, relies on a modelling exercise to which some limited data have been fed. Even so, however, the NSO’s estimates are unlikely to be too far from what the RBI has provided.

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Newsclick.in, 21 November, 2020, https://www.newsclick.in/why-recovery-at-cost-of-worker-immiserisation-wont-last-long?fbclid=IwAR3Qwr4C_HMqLnIkl5tf7oUPqVqzaAMTkAVqz7EIA-U0y3BRA9drC3TE_jI


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