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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Why tribal votes are pivotal in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan elections -Sanjay Kumar and Pranav Gupta

Why tribal votes are pivotal in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan elections -Sanjay Kumar and Pranav Gupta

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published Published on Oct 19, 2018   modified Modified on Oct 19, 2018
-Livemint.com

The BJP’s ability to balance the demands of its upper caste and tribal voters in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan will shape the election results in December

Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) successfully tide over anti-incumbency in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh (MP) and Rajasthan? Or will the Congress manage to return to power in these states and gain momentum in the run-up to the 2019 Lok Sabha elections?

The answers to these questions partly lie with the Adivasi or tribal voters who wield considerable influence in these three states. Such voters form a sizeable chunk in Chhattisgarh and MP. The tribal population in Rajasthan is much less but their spatial concentration gives them considerable influence in a few districts.

Tribal voters voted in large numbers for the BJP in 2014, data from post-poll surveys conducted by Lokniti, a research program at the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) shows. Until then, the Congress enjoyed a substantial lead over the BJP among this community. This may be mainly attributed to the Congress’s dominance and the BJP’s sparse presence in the Northeast and Odisha until 2014.

In central India and Jharkhand, there has historically been stiff competition for tribal support between the two main national parties. This regional divide is also visible in the performance of both parties in ST (scheduled tribe) reserved seats. In multiple elections, the BJP has actually won more reserved seats compared with the Congress, although parties can win reserved seats despite limited support among the groups for which the seats are reserved.

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Livemint.com, 18 October, 2018, https://www.livemint.com/Politics/ix3DcRNNYgJ85ehC2OwEOJ/Chhattisgarh-Madhya-Pradesh-Rajasthan-MP-elections.html


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