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NEWS ALERTS | Foodgrain output to stay below 2013-14 level, predicts agriculture ministry
Foodgrain output to stay below 2013-14 level, predicts agriculture ministry

Foodgrain output to stay below 2013-14 level, predicts agriculture ministry

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published Published on May 13, 2016   modified Modified on May 14, 2016
Till recently agricultural production in the current crop year was expected to be adversely affected by drought situation in more than 10 states, apart from hailstorms and excessive rainfall that happened in March.

However, if one were to believe a recent forecast made by the Ministry of Agriculture, the overall foodgrain production in the country this crop year is anticipated to remain almost the same as last year.

In 2014-15, total foodgrain output was 252.02 million tonnes, while this year it is expected to be 252.23 million, as per the latest third advance estimates (please see Chart 1).

In the crop year 2013-14 (which was a normal year in terms of rainfall), foodgrain production of the country was at a much higher level of 265.04 million tonnes as compared to the recent two years.

It needs to be elucidated that the country had faced drought in 2014-15, and this year too drought situation is prevailing in many states. Please check below the links of the Supreme Court judgement on writ petition (delivered in May 2016), which was filed by Swaraj Abhiyan in December 2015 for the Court’s intervention to mitigate adverse conditions in drought affected districts.

Chart 1

Source: Third Advance estimate of foodgrain prodution for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 9 May, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics & Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please click here to access
 
Second Advance estimate of foodgrain production for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 15 February, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics & Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please click here to access

The third estimates of agricultural production from the Ministry of Agriculture issued on 9 May, 2016 shows that wheat production is likely to be 94.04 million tonnes, which is an increase of 8.7 percent vis-à-vis what was produced in 2014-15 but is definitely a fall by 1.89 percent vis-à-vis production in 2013-14.

As compared to the second advance estimates, the third advance estimates give a rosier picture of wheat production in the country (see Chart 1).

As far as rice production is concerned, it is predicted to decline by almost 2.01 percent between 2014-15 and 2015-16, which is lesser than the decline by 3.08 percent between 2013-14 and the present crop year.  

Pulses production is set to decline by 11.38 percent between 2013-14 and 2015-16. Similarly, production of coarse cereals is likely to fall by 12.73 percent during the same span.

The third advance estimates by the Ministry of Agriculture shows that oilseed production (of nine varieties) will fall by 5.86 percent vis-à-vis last year to reach 25.9 million tonnes.

As per the International Institute for Environment and Development (2013), rainfed areas of the country comprise 77 percent of the area for pulses, 66 percent for oilseeds, and 85 percent of coarse cereals. Thus, livelihood security of the farmers growing these crops is likely to be impacted by back-to-back droughts.  

Chart 2
 
Source: Third Advance estimate of foodgrain prodution for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 9 May, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics & Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please click here to access

In the Chart 2, the linear trend line clearly shows that foodgrain production has consistently risen over the last 13 years. The R-squared value is 0.79, which is a good fit of the line to the data.

Experts are critical about the recent estimates given by the Ministry of Agriculture, and they have argued that one needs to wait till the fourth advance estimates are released in July-August so as to get a clearer picture of agricultural production. Please check the news report entitled Drought fails to dampen foodgrain output, written by Sayantan Bera for the Livemint (dated 10 May, 2016).

The fourth advance estimates are considered to be almost as good as the final estimates that are released in the upcoming month of February along with second advance estimates for the subsequent agricultural year.

The Arthapedia website www.arthapedia.in (a portal managed by the officers of Indian Economic Service) informs us that in an agricultural year (July-June), the Ministry of Agriculture releases four advance estimates, followed by the final estimates of production of major agricultural crops in the country.

The Arthapedia website says that the first advance estimates are released in September when kharif sowing is generally over, and covers only kharif crops. The second advance estimates are released in February next year when rabi sowing is over. The 2nd estimates covering kharif as well as rabi crops take into account firmed up figures on kharif area coverage along with available data on crop cutting experiments for yield assessment of kharif crops and tentative figures on area coverage of rabi crops.

The 3rd advance estimates incorporating revised data on area coverage for rabi crops and better yield estimates of kharif crops are released in April-May.

It needs to be mentioned that agricultural crop year in India spans from July to June. So when one refers to crop year 2015-16, it means the time period between July, 2015 and June, 2016.
 

References

Third Advance estimate of foodgrain production for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 9 May, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics & Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please click here to access

Second Advance estimate of foodgrain production for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 15 February, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics & Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please click here to access

First Advance estimate of foodgrain production for agriculture year 2015-16 (released on 19 September, 2016), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, Directorate of Economics & Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, please click here to access

Advance Estimates of Food Grains, Oilseeds & Other Commercial Crops, Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, http://eands.dacnet.nic.in/Advance_Estimates.htm

Cropping seasons of India- Kharif & Rabi, Arthapedia by IES officers, please click here to access

Supreme Court judgement on the writ petition (C) No. 857 of 2015 Part-I, 11 May, 2016, please click here to access

Supreme Court judgement on the writ petition (C) No. 857 of 2015 Part-II, 13 May, 2016, please click here to access

Supreme Court judgement on the writ petition (C) No. 857 of 2015 Part-III, 13 May, 2016, please click here to access
 
Briefing: Climate resilient drylands development, IIED, April 2013, please click here to access
 
Situation alarming: More than one-third population hit by drought, Inclusive Media for Change, http://www.im4change.org/india-focus.php
 
Farmers’ prospect destroyed by erratic rains, Newsalert from Inclusive Media for Change, please click here to access
 
Incentivize pulses production to check spiralling prices, Newsalert from Inclusive Media for Change, please click here to access

Deepening Agrarian Crisis Endangers Food Security, Newsalert from Inclusive Media for Change, please click here to access
 
2015 is likely to be a drought year, Newsalert from Inclusive Media for Change, please click here to access
 
Image Courtesy: Inclusive Media for Change/ Shambhu Ghatak


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