Deprecated (16384): The ArrayAccess methods will be removed in 4.0.0.Use getParam(), getData() and getQuery() instead. - /home/brlfuser/public_html/src/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line: 150
 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php. [CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311]
Code Context


        trigger_error($message, E_USER_DEPRECATED);

    }
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 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php.'
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deprecationWarning - CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311
Cake\Http\ServerRequest::offsetGet() - CORE/src/Http/ServerRequest.php, line 2421
App\Controller\ArtileDetailController::index() - APP/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line 150
Cake\Controller\Controller::invokeAction() - CORE/src/Controller/Controller.php, line 610
Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::_invoke() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 120
Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::dispatch() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 94
Cake\Http\BaseApplication::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/BaseApplication.php, line 235
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Routing\Middleware\RoutingMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Routing/Middleware/RoutingMiddleware.php, line 162
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Routing\Middleware\AssetMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Routing/Middleware/AssetMiddleware.php, line 97
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Error\Middleware\ErrorHandlerMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Error/Middleware/ErrorHandlerMiddleware.php, line 96
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Http\Runner::run() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 51
Cake\Http\Server::run() - CORE/src/Http/Server.php, line 98

Deprecated (16384): The ArrayAccess methods will be removed in 4.0.0.Use getParam(), getData() and getQuery() instead. - /home/brlfuser/public_html/src/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line: 151
 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php. [CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311]
Code Context


        trigger_error($message, E_USER_DEPRECATED);

    }
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 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php.'
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deprecationWarning - CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311
Cake\Http\ServerRequest::offsetGet() - CORE/src/Http/ServerRequest.php, line 2421
App\Controller\ArtileDetailController::index() - APP/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line 151
Cake\Controller\Controller::invokeAction() - CORE/src/Controller/Controller.php, line 610
Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::_invoke() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 120
Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::dispatch() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 94
Cake\Http\BaseApplication::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/BaseApplication.php, line 235
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Routing\Middleware\RoutingMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Routing/Middleware/RoutingMiddleware.php, line 162
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Routing\Middleware\AssetMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Routing/Middleware/AssetMiddleware.php, line 97
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Error\Middleware\ErrorHandlerMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Error/Middleware/ErrorHandlerMiddleware.php, line 96
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Http\Runner::run() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 51
Cake\Http\Server::run() - CORE/src/Http/Server.php, line 98

Warning (512): Unable to emit headers. Headers sent in file=/home/brlfuser/public_html/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/Error/Debugger.php line=853 [CORE/src/Http/ResponseEmitter.php, line 48]
Code Context
            if (Configure::read('debug')) {

                trigger_error($message, E_USER_WARNING);

            } else {
$response = object(Cake\Http\Response) {

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        NEWS ALERTS | Cereal inflation would be hard to tame amidst low rice acreage     </title>
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    <h1 class="cat-box-title">Cereal inflation would be hard to tame amidst low rice acreage </h1>
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                            <p style="text-align:justify">Is India going to face inflation in cereal prices during the rest of the current financial year? Experts differ on this. An <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/poor-monsoon-does-not-always-translate-to-high-inflation-8946831.html?fbclid=IwAR0z-H9J5LhgQAYpB9ZKZIRkDyG6Y3VNk3IfpgPitjyIJAe795P-YH8I0dI" title="https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/poor-monsoon-does-not-always-translate-to-high-inflation-8946831.html?fbclid=IwAR0z-H9J5LhgQAYpB9ZKZIRkDyG6Y3VNk3IfpgPitjyIJAe795P-YH8I0dI">analysis by Nomura</a> <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/poor-monsoon-does-not-always-translate-to-high-inflation-8946831.html?fbclid=IwAR0z-H9J5LhgQAYpB9ZKZIRkDyG6Y3VNk3IfpgPitjyIJAe795P-YH8I0dI" title="https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/poor-monsoon-does-not-always-translate-to-high-inflation-8946831.html?fbclid=IwAR0z-H9J5LhgQAYpB9ZKZIRkDyG6Y3VNk3IfpgPitjyIJAe795P-YH8I0dI">Global Economics and CEIC</a> finds that a below normal monsoon does not always translate into high retail inflation in food. Similarly, an above normal southwest monsoon does not always bring down the rate of food inflation. However, some agricultural experts <em>(please click <a href="https://theprint.in/agriculture/lower-kharif-plantings-due-to-uneven-rains-a-growing-concern-says-report/1072127/" title="https://theprint.in/agriculture/lower-kharif-plantings-due-to-uneven-rains-a-growing-concern-says-report/1072127/">here</a>, <a href="https://theprint.in/opinion/does-india-have-enough-rice-for-welfare-schemes-and-ethanol-what-the-govt-is-missing/1036965/" title="https://theprint.in/opinion/does-india-have-enough-rice-for-welfare-schemes-and-ethanol-what-the-govt-is-missing/1036965/">here</a> and <a href="https://theprint.in/india/first-wheat-now-rice-hit-by-bad-weather-output-could-fall-by-10-mn-tonnes-this-season/1056198/" title="https://theprint.in/india/first-wheat-now-rice-hit-by-bad-weather-output-could-fall-by-10-mn-tonnes-this-season/1056198/">here</a> to access)&nbsp;</em>worry about the slow progress of southwest monsoon rainfall in the rice growing states.&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">The recent data of the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) shows that the year-on-year (YoY) retail inflation rate for &#39;cereals and products&#39; has increased from <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/CPI%20Press%20Release%20June%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/CPI%20Press%20Release%20June%202022.pdf">5.66 percent in June</a> to <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/CPI%20Press%20Release%20July%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/CPI%20Press%20Release%20July%202022.pdf">6.90 percent in July this year</a>.</p><p style="text-align:justify"><strong>Table 1: Annual rate of WPI inflation (YoY) in various commodities (%)</strong></p><p style="text-align:justify"><img alt="" src="/upload/images/Table%201%20Annual%20rate%20of%20WPI%20inflation%20YoY%20in%20various%20commodities%281%29.png" style="height:183px; width:1000px" /></p><p style="text-align:justify"><em><strong>Note: </strong>* = Provisional</em></p><p style="text-align:justify"><em><strong>Source:&nbsp;</strong>Press release: Index Numbers of Wholesale Price in India for the Month of June, 2022 (Base Year: 2011-12), Ministry of Commerce and Industry, released on July 14, 2022, please <a href="/upload/files/WPI%20released%20on%2014th%20July%202022.pdf" title="/upload/files/WPI%20released%20on%2014th%20July%202022.pdf">click here</a> to access</em></p><p style="text-align:justify">---</p><p style="text-align:justify">It is visible from table-1 that the annual rate of wholesale price index (WPI) inflation (YoY) in the case of paddy has increased gradually from almost zero percent in February to 2.35 percent in June this year. For cereals, the rate of WPI inflation (YoY) has stayed at around 8 percent in each of the months from March to June. The movement in the WPI of cereals is likely to affect its retail price&nbsp;after a period of lag.</p><p style="text-align:justify"><strong>The bad news -- rice acreage is low&nbsp;so far</strong></p><p style="text-align:justify">According to the <a href="/upload/files/CWWG%20Meeting%20held%20on%2029%20July%202022.pdf" title="/upload/files/CWWG%20Meeting%20held%20on%2029%20July%202022.pdf">Directorate of Economics and Statistics</a>, due to the late arrival of the southwest monsoon in some states, as on July 29, 2022, the area sown under rice was 231.59 lakh hectare (ha.) as compared to 267.05 lakh ha. in the corresponding period last year. The <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/As%20on%2029%20July%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/As%20on%2029%20July%202022.pdf">normal area under rice</a> cultivation in the corresponding week <em>(i.e.,&nbsp;<a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/As%20on%2029%20July%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/As%20on%2029%20July%202022.pdf">average of 2017-18 to 2021-22</a>)</em> was <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/As%20on%2029%20July%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/As%20on%2029%20July%202022.pdf">259.20 lakh ha</a>.&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">As <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/CWWG%20Meeting%20held%20on%2029%20July%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/CWWG%20Meeting%20held%20on%2029%20July%202022.pdf">per the Government</a>, the area under rice cultivation is likely to pick up. It must be noted that just a fortnight back i.e., as on July 15, 2022, <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/As%20on%2015%20July%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/As%20on%2015%20July%202022.pdf">the area sown under rice was 128.5 lakh ha.</a> as compared to 155.53 lakh ha. in the corresponding period last year. The area under rice cultivation at the national level is the sum of area sown under rice in various states. The state level data is provided by the State Departments of Agriculture. &nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify"><strong>The good news</strong></p><p style="text-align:justify">In the <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/As%20on%2029%20July%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/As%20on%2029%20July%202022.pdf">week ending July 28, 2022, the area</a>&nbsp;<a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/As%20on%2029%20July%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/As%20on%2029%20July%202022.pdf">under coarse cereals cultivation stood</a> <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/As%20on%2029%20July%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/As%20on%2029%20July%202022.pdf">at 142.21 lakh ha. against 135.30 lakh ha.</a> during the corresponding period last year. Therefore, a part of the shortfall in cereal output this year is likely to&nbsp;be compensated by an increase in the production of nutri-cereals, which according to experts, are more nutritious than rice or wheat. Unlike rice, they are not water guzzling crops and are also grown by farmers doing rainfed cultivation. One must recall here that due to <a href="https://www.financialexpress.com/economy/heatwave-crop-losses-to-be-large-wheat-and-vegetables-hit-the-most/2509633/" title="https://www.financialexpress.com/economy/heatwave-crop-losses-to-be-large-wheat-and-vegetables-hit-the-most/2509633/">hot weather like conditions</a> in March and April this year, farmers of Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and parts of Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh witnessed shriveled wheat grains and a <a href="https://www.financialexpress.com/economy/heatwave-crop-losses-to-be-large-wheat-and-vegetables-hit-the-most/2509633/" title="https://www.financialexpress.com/economy/heatwave-crop-losses-to-be-large-wheat-and-vegetables-hit-the-most/2509633/">decline in the wheat yield</a>. &nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">In the week ending July 27, 2022, the area sown under pulses was found to be <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/As%20on%2029%20July%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/As%20on%2029%20July%202022.pdf">106.18 lakh ha. as against 103.23 lakh ha.</a> during the corresponding period last year. This too brings a glimmer of hope amidst the decline in wheat yield and an expected fall in <em>kharif </em>rice output this year. &nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify"><strong>It&#39;s about procurement, stupid!</strong></p><p style="text-align:justify">Wheat procurement by the Food Corporation of India (FCI) and the state agencies in the <em>rabi</em> marketing season of 2022-23 fared poorly in comparison to last year. One reason behind this is low wheat production. As per a <a href="/upload/files/USDA%20India%20-%20Extreme%20Temperatures%20Scorch%20Indian%20Wheat%20Production_New%20Delhi_India_IN2022-0045.pdf" title="/upload/files/USDA%20India%20-%20Extreme%20Temperatures%20Scorch%20Indian%20Wheat%20Production_New%20Delhi_India_IN2022-0045.pdf">press release</a> by the <a href="https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/india-india-extreme-temperatures-scorch-indian-wheat-production" title="https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/india-india-extreme-temperatures-scorch-indian-wheat-production">United States Department of Agriculture</a> dated May 25, 2022, &quot;[h]eat stress resulting from an unprecedented spike in temperatures beginning in the mid-March 2022 has had a marked impact&nbsp;India&rsquo;s wheat crop. Yields are 10-15 percent down, driving India&rsquo;s forecasted market year (MY) 2022/23 (April-March) wheat production down from 110 million metric tons (MMT) to 99 MMT. On May 13, 2022, the Indian government announced a ban on wheat exports, citing the sudden spike in global wheat prices and the resulting food security risks to India.&quot;</p><p style="text-align:justify">It should be added here that <a href="/upload/files/Progress%20of%20area%20coverage%20under%20rabi%20crops%20as%20on%2028%20January%202022.pdf" title="/upload/files/Progress%20of%20area%20coverage%20under%20rabi%20crops%20as%20on%2028%20January%202022.pdf">as on January 27, 2022</a>, <a href="/upload/files/Progress%20of%20area%20coverage%20under%20rabi%20crops%20as%20on%2028%20January%202022.pdf" title="/upload/files/Progress%20of%20area%20coverage%20under%20rabi%20crops%20as%20on%2028%20January%202022.pdf">wheat rabi acreage</a> was found to be <a href="/upload/files/Progress%20of%20area%20coverage%20under%20rabi%20crops%20as%20on%2028%20January%202022.pdf" title="/upload/files/Progress%20of%20area%20coverage%20under%20rabi%20crops%20as%20on%2028%20January%202022.pdf">342.37 lakh ha</a>. as compared to <a href="/upload/files/Progress%20of%20area%20coverage%20under%20rabi%20crops%20as%20on%2028%20January%202022.pdf" title="/upload/files/Progress%20of%20area%20coverage%20under%20rabi%20crops%20as%20on%2028%20January%202022.pdf">345.86 lakh ha.</a> in the corresponding period last year. On the contrary, in the <a href="/upload/files/Progress%20of%20area%20coverage%20under%20rabi%20crops%20as%20on%2028%20January%202022.pdf" title="/upload/files/Progress%20of%20area%20coverage%20under%20rabi%20crops%20as%20on%2028%20January%202022.pdf">week ending January 27, 2022</a>, <a href="/upload/files/Progress%20of%20area%20coverage%20under%20rabi%20crops%20as%20on%2028%20January%202022.pdf" title="/upload/files/Progress%20of%20area%20coverage%20under%20rabi%20crops%20as%20on%2028%20January%202022.pdf">mustard and rapeseed rabi acreage</a> stood at <a href="/upload/files/Progress%20of%20area%20coverage%20under%20rabi%20crops%20as%20on%2028%20January%202022.pdf" title="/upload/files/Progress%20of%20area%20coverage%20under%20rabi%20crops%20as%20on%2028%20January%202022.pdf">91.44 lakh ha.</a> against <a href="/upload/files/Progress%20of%20area%20coverage%20under%20rabi%20crops%20as%20on%2028%20January%202022.pdf" title="/upload/files/Progress%20of%20area%20coverage%20under%20rabi%20crops%20as%20on%2028%20January%202022.pdf">73.12 lakh ha.</a> in the corresponding period last year.</p><p style="text-align:justify">The progressive procurement as on June 30, 2022 in the marketing season 2022-23 was 187.89 lakh metric tonnes, whereas the progressive procurement as on July 2, 2021 in the marketing season 2021-22 was 433.21 lakh metric tonnes <em>(i.e., 56.63 percent lower in the rabi marketing season 2022-23 as compared to the previous RMS)</em>. The progressive procurement as on July 3, 2020 in the marketing season 2020-21 stood at 389.38 lakh metric tonnes.</p><p style="text-align:justify"><strong>Table 2: Procurement of wheat at the national level and state levels (in lakh metric tonnes)&nbsp;</strong></p><p style="text-align:justify"><img alt="" src="/upload/images/Table%201%20Procurement%20of%20wheat%20at%20the%20national%20level%20and%20state%20levels%20in%20lakh%20tonnes.png" style="height:359px; width:420px" /></p><p style="text-align:justify"><em><strong>Source: </strong>Minutes of the&nbsp;Crop Weather Watch Group (CWWG) Meeting held on July 1, 2022, please <a href="/upload/files/CWWG%20Minutes%20as%20on%2001072022.pdf" title="/upload/files/CWWG%20Minutes%20as%20on%2001072022.pdf">click here</a> to read more&nbsp;<br />Minutes of the CWWG Meeting held on July 2, 2021, please <a href="/upload/files/CWWG%20Minutes%20as%20on%2002072021.pdf" title="/upload/files/CWWG%20Minutes%20as%20on%2002072021.pdf">click here</a> to read more&nbsp;<br />Minutes of the CWWG Meeting held on July 3, 2020, please <a href="/upload/files/CWWG%20Minutes%20as%20on%2006072020.pdf" title="/upload/files/CWWG%20Minutes%20as%20on%2006072020.pdf">click here</a> to read more&nbsp;</em><br /><strong>---</strong></p><p style="text-align:justify">Table-2 shows that the progressive procurement of wheat in Punjab, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh&nbsp;as on June 30, 2022 was lower than what was procured in the corresponding period in the last two years.&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">But why was wheat procurement so low in March-April, 2022? As said earlier, wheat output was impacted by heat wave coupled with no pre-monsoon-showers in early 2022. Thanks to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, there is a shortage of wheat in <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/USDA%20India%20-%20Extreme%20Temperatures%20Scorch%20Indian%20Wheat%20Production_New%20Delhi_India_IN2022-0045.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/USDA%20India%20-%20Extreme%20Temperatures%20Scorch%20Indian%20Wheat%20Production_New%20Delhi_India_IN2022-0045.pdf">various countries where wheat is imported</a>. As a result, <a href="https://www.fao.org/giews/food-prices/international-prices/detail/en/c/1599378/" title="https://www.fao.org/giews/food-prices/international-prices/detail/en/c/1599378/">international</a> <a href="https://www.fao.org/giews/food-prices/international-prices/detail/en/c/1599378/" title="https://www.fao.org/giews/food-prices/international-prices/detail/en/c/1599378/">wheat prices are higher than before</a>.&nbsp;Speculation in commodity futures markets, has also led to an enormous increase in global wheat prices <em>(please click <a href="https://im4change.org/latest-news-updates/food-price-inflation-could-have-been-avoided-says-new-ipes-food-report.html" title="https://im4change.org/latest-news-updates/food-price-inflation-could-have-been-avoided-says-new-ipes-food-report.html">here</a>, <a href="https://www.lighthousereports.nl/investigation/the-hunger-profiteers/?fbclid=IwAR3cDwZwBuEd0elH8Acu17dLGbRftceKRVIVgSKR_LS_hoh3XnGsihrkhro" title="https://www.lighthousereports.nl/investigation/the-hunger-profiteers/?fbclid=IwAR3cDwZwBuEd0elH8Acu17dLGbRftceKRVIVgSKR_LS_hoh3XnGsihrkhro">here</a>, <a href="https://www.fao.org/3/cb9427en/cb9427en.pdf" title="https://www.fao.org/3/cb9427en/cb9427en.pdf">here</a> and <a href="https://thewire.in/economy/speculation-is-contributing-to-global-food-insecurity-significantly" title="https://thewire.in/economy/speculation-is-contributing-to-global-food-insecurity-significantly">here</a> to access)</em>.&nbsp;Wheat traders who indulge in exporting wheat from India saw an opportunity in this and they bought wheat <em>(despite low domestic production)</em> from <em>mandis </em>situated in wheat producing states such as Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh at prices higher than the <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/Cabinet%20increases%20Minimum%20Support%20Prices%20%28MSP%29%20for%20Rabi%20crops%20for%20marketing%20season%202022-23.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/Cabinet%20increases%20Minimum%20Support%20Prices%20%28MSP%29%20for%20Rabi%20crops%20for%20marketing%20season%202022-23.pdf">minimum support price</a>, which is <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/Cabinet%20increases%20Minimum%20Support%20Prices%20%28MSP%29%20for%20Rabi%20crops%20for%20marketing%20season%202022-23.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/Cabinet%20increases%20Minimum%20Support%20Prices%20%28MSP%29%20for%20Rabi%20crops%20for%20marketing%20season%202022-23.pdf">declared by the Union Government</a>.&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify"><strong>Table 3: State wise Wholesale Prices Monthly Analysis for Wheat in March and April, 2022</strong></p><p style="text-align:justify"><img alt="" src="/upload/images/Table%202%20State%20wise%20Wholesale%20Prices%20Monthly%20Analysis%20for%20Wheat%20April%202022.PNG" style="height:546px; width:831px" /></p><p style="text-align:justify"><em><strong>Source: </strong>Agmarket Portal of Government of India, <a href="https://agmarknet.gov.in/Default.aspx" title="https://agmarknet.gov.in/Default.aspx">https://agmarknet.gov.in/Default.aspx</a>&nbsp;</em><br /><strong>---</strong></p><p style="text-align:justify">The MSP for wheat was fixed at Rs. 2,015/- per quintal during <em>rabi</em> marketing season 2022-23. In Madhya Pradesh, the wholesale price <em>(as reported by APMCs) </em>stood at Rs. 2,192.42 per quintal in March and Rs. 2,151.74 per quintal in April this year. In Punjab, the wholesale price was Rs. 2,028.55 per quintal in March and Rs. 2,015.34 per quintal in April 2022. In Haryana, the wholesale price was Rs. 2,050/- per quintal in March and Rs. 2016.78 per quintal in April this year. In Uttar Pradesh, the wholesale price was Rs. 2,033.62/- per quintal in March and Rs. 2,043.66 per quintal in April 2022.&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">As can be observed from table-3,&nbsp;in the main wheat producing states of India, the wholesale prices in March and April this year were greater than what existed in the corresponding months last year. &nbsp;&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify"><strong>Why is public procurement so important for controlling inflation?</strong></p><p style="text-align:justify">As per the&nbsp;<a href="https://dfpd.gov.in/omss_C.htm" title="https://dfpd.gov.in/omss_C.htm">Department of Food and Public Distribution</a>, the FCI sells surplus stocks of wheat and rice under the Open Market Sale Scheme (Domestic) i.e., OMSS(D),&nbsp;at pre-determined prices through e-auction in the open market from time to time to enhance the supply of food grains, especially wheat during the lean season and thereby moderate the open market prices specially in the deficit regions. Even during the times of high retail inflation, excess of the foodgrains procured/ stocked is sold in the open market for taming price rise. If the procurement is low, as it happened for wheat in the RMS 2022-23, then the Government is unable to release surplus foodgrain stocks.&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">The data on <a href="/upload/files/Foodgrain%20Bulletin%20for%20July%202022.pdf" title="/upload/files/Foodgrain%20Bulletin%20for%20July%202022.pdf">quarterly stock position of food grains</a> <a href="/upload/files/Foodgrain%20Bulletin%20for%20July%202022.pdf" title="/upload/files/Foodgrain%20Bulletin%20for%20July%202022.pdf">in the Central pool</a> reveals that as on July 1, 2022, the stock of wheat was <a href="/upload/files/Central%20pool%20stock%20as%20on%201%20July%202022.PNG" title="/upload/files/Central%20pool%20stock%20as%20on%201%20July%202022.PNG">285.10 lakh tonnes</a> as opposed to <a href="/upload/files/Central%20pool%20stock%20as%20on%201%20July%202022.PNG" title="/upload/files/Central%20pool%20stock%20as%20on%201%20July%202022.PNG">603.56 lakh tonnes</a> in the corresponding period last year.&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">Under the <a href="https://im4change.org/news-alerts-57/it-s-time-to-protect-the-poor-and-the-migrants-from-rising-edible-oil-prices.html" title="https://im4change.org/news-alerts-57/it-s-time-to-protect-the-poor-and-the-migrants-from-rising-edible-oil-prices.html">Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana (PMGKAY)</a>, about 81 crore beneficiaries covered under both categories of National Food Security Act, namely Antyodaya Anna Yojana (AAY) and Priority Householders (PHH), are provided with an <a href="https://im4change.org/news-alerts-57/it-s-time-to-protect-the-poor-and-the-migrants-from-rising-edible-oil-prices.html" title="https://im4change.org/news-alerts-57/it-s-time-to-protect-the-poor-and-the-migrants-from-rising-edible-oil-prices.html">additional quota of free-of-cost foodgrains</a> (rice/ wheat) at a scale of 5 kg per person per month, over and above their regular monthly entitlements. In <a href="https://im4change.org/news-alerts-57/it-s-time-to-protect-the-poor-and-the-migrants-from-rising-edible-oil-prices.html" title="https://im4change.org/news-alerts-57/it-s-time-to-protect-the-poor-and-the-migrants-from-rising-edible-oil-prices.html">some phases of PMGKAY</a>, 1 kg of pulses was also provided per family per month. The PMGKAY has been extended by the Government recently for a <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/PIB%20PMGKAY.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/PIB%20PMGKAY.pdf">period of another six months</a> i.e. April to September, 2022 (Phase-VI) . The PDS <em>(i.e., Public Distribution System) </em>beneficiaries in the states of <a href="https://www.financialexpress.com/economy/up-gujarat-demand-more-wheat-under-pds/2584149/" title="https://www.financialexpress.com/economy/up-gujarat-demand-more-wheat-under-pds/2584149/">Gujarat and Uttar Pradesh</a> were allocated wheat and rice in proportion of <a href="https://www.financialexpress.com/economy/up-gujarat-demand-more-wheat-under-pds/2584149/" title="https://www.financialexpress.com/economy/up-gujarat-demand-more-wheat-under-pds/2584149/">3 kg (wheat) and 2 kg (rice)</a> for each beneficiary per month till May this year. However, after that the Government reversed it to 2 kg (wheat) and 3 kg (rice) chiefly because of the decline in wheat stocks with the FCI.</p><p style="text-align:justify">Apart from the points discussed above, according to <a href="https://www.cenfa.org/windfall-tax-on-corporations-goes-as-5-gst-on-food-items-kicks-in/?fbclid=IwAR0xurOlKDoslWPiGL3SheIptZfAK7_wZasYX5zbGqtcpaLz8W3a4922UYo" title="https://www.cenfa.org/windfall-tax-on-corporations-goes-as-5-gst-on-food-items-kicks-in/?fbclid=IwAR0xurOlKDoslWPiGL3SheIptZfAK7_wZasYX5zbGqtcpaLz8W3a4922UYo">some experts</a>, a 5 percent Goods and Services Tax <a href="/upload/files/FAQ%20GST.pdf" title="/upload/files/FAQ%20GST.pdf">(GST) that was imposed</a>, on July 18, on &#39;<a href="/upload/files/FAQ%20GST.pdf" title="/upload/files/FAQ%20GST.pdf">pre-packaged and labelled</a>&#39;&nbsp;<em>(including unbranded) </em>food items, like wheat, rice, curd, <em>lassi</em>, puffed rice, mutton and fish, will further make it difficult for the Union and State Governments to bring down high retail inflation.</p><p style="text-align:justify"><br /><strong><em>References</em></strong></p><p>Press release: Consumer Price Index on Base 2012=100 for Rural, Urban and Combined for the Month of July 2022, released on August 12, 2022, Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), please <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/CPI%20Press%20Release%20July%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/CPI%20Press%20Release%20July%202022.pdf">click here</a> to access</p><p>Press release: Consumer Price Index on Base 2012=100 for Rural, Urban and Combined for the Month of June 2022, released on July 12, 2022, Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), please <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/CPI%20Press%20Release%20June%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/CPI%20Press%20Release%20June%202022.pdf">click here</a> to access</p><p style="text-align:justify">Minutes of the&nbsp;Crop Weather Watch Group (CWWG) Meeting held on July 1, 2022, please <a href="/upload/files/CWWG%20Minutes%20as%20on%2001072022.pdf" title="/upload/files/CWWG%20Minutes%20as%20on%2001072022.pdf">click here</a> to read more&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">Minutes of the CWWG Meeting held on July 2, 2021, please <a href="/upload/files/CWWG%20Minutes%20as%20on%2002072021.pdf" title="/upload/files/CWWG%20Minutes%20as%20on%2002072021.pdf">click here</a> to read more&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">Minutes of the CWWG Meeting held on July 3, 2020, please <a href="/upload/files/CWWG%20Minutes%20as%20on%2006072020.pdf" title="/upload/files/CWWG%20Minutes%20as%20on%2006072020.pdf">click here</a> to read more&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">Press release: Centre incurs 39,996.184 Crore Provisional Subsidy in Pradhan Mantri Gareeb Kalyan Ann Yojana for 2022-23 upto 12.07.2022, Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food &amp; Public Distribution, Press Information Bureau, released on July 27, 2022, please <a href="/upload/files/PIB%20PMGKAY.pdf" title="/upload/files/PIB%20PMGKAY.pdf">click here</a> to access</p><p style="text-align:justify">Progress of area coverage under <em>kharif</em> crops as on 29 July, 2022, please <a href="/upload/files/As%20on%2029%20July%202022.pdf" title="/upload/files/As%20on%2029%20July%202022.pdf">click here</a> to access&nbsp; &nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">Progress of area coverage under <em>kharif</em> crops as on 15 July, 2022, please <a href="/upload/files/As%20on%2015%20July%202022.pdf" title="/upload/files/As%20on%2015%20July%202022.pdf">click here</a> to access&nbsp; &nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">Progress of area coverage under <em>rabi </em>crops as on 28 January, 2022, please <a href="/upload/files/Progress%20of%20area%20coverage%20under%20rabi%20crops%20as%20on%2028%20January%202022.pdf" title="/upload/files/Progress%20of%20area%20coverage%20under%20rabi%20crops%20as%20on%2028%20January%202022.pdf">click here</a> to access &nbsp;&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">Press release: FAQs on GST applicability on &lsquo;pre-packaged and labelled&rsquo; goods, Ministry of Finance, Press Information Bureau, released on July 18, 2022, please <a href="/upload/files/FAQ%20GST.pdf" title="/upload/files/FAQ%20GST.pdf">click here</a> to access&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">Press release: Index Numbers of Wholesale Price in India for the Month of June, 2022 (Base Year: 2011-12), Ministry of Commerce and Industry, released on July 14, 2022, please <a href="/upload/files/WPI%20released%20on%2014th%20July%202022.pdf" title="/upload/files/WPI%20released%20on%2014th%20July%202022.pdf">click here</a> to access</p><p style="text-align:justify">Press release: Cabinet increases Minimum Support Prices (MSP) for <em>rabi </em>crops for marketing season 2022-23, Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA), Press Information Bureau, 8 September, 2021,&nbsp;please <a href="/upload/files/Cabinet%20increases%20Minimum%20Support%20Prices%20%28MSP%29%20for%20Rabi%20crops%20for%20marketing%20season%202022-23.pdf" title="/upload/files/Cabinet%20increases%20Minimum%20Support%20Prices%20%28MSP%29%20for%20Rabi%20crops%20for%20marketing%20season%202022-23.pdf">click here</a> to access&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">Food grain Bulletin for July 2022, Department of Food and Public Distribution, please <a href="/upload/files/Foodgrain%20Bulletin%20for%20July%202022.pdf" title="/upload/files/Foodgrain%20Bulletin%20for%20July%202022.pdf">click here</a> to access&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">Food Outlook for June 2022: Biannual Report on Global Food Markets, FAO, please <a href="https://www.fao.org/3/cb9427en/cb9427en.pdf" title="https://www.fao.org/3/cb9427en/cb9427en.pdf">click here</a> to access</p><p style="text-align:justify">International prices of wheat and coarse grains declined, while those of rice edged up in June, released on July 12, 2022, Food Price Monitoring and Analysis, FAO, please <a href="https://www.fao.org/giews/food-prices/international-prices/detail/en/c/1599378/" title="https://www.fao.org/giews/food-prices/international-prices/detail/en/c/1599378/">click here</a> to access</p><p style="text-align:justify">India: India - Extreme Temperatures Scorch Indian Wheat Production, &nbsp;Attach&eacute; Report (GAIN), IN2022-0045,&nbsp;United States Department of Agriculture, May 25, 2022, please <a href="https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/india-india-extreme-temperatures-scorch-indian-wheat-production" title="https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/india-india-extreme-temperatures-scorch-indian-wheat-production">click here</a> to access</p><p style="text-align:justify">Press coverage: Food price inflation could have been avoided, says new IPES-Food report, International Panel of Experts on Sustainable Food Systems (IPES-Food), May 6, 2022 please click <a href="https://im4change.org/latest-news-updates/food-price-inflation-could-have-been-avoided-says-new-ipes-food-report.html" title="https://im4change.org/latest-news-updates/food-price-inflation-could-have-been-avoided-says-new-ipes-food-report.html">here</a>, <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/Food%20price%20crisis%20report_press%20release%20by%20IPES%20Food.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/Food%20price%20crisis%20report_press%20release%20by%20IPES%20Food.pdf">here</a> and <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/Another%20Perfect%20Storm.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/Another%20Perfect%20Storm.pdf">here</a> to access</p><p style="text-align:justify">THE HUNGER PROFITEERS, Lighthouse Reports, May 6, 2022, please <a href="https://www.lighthousereports.nl/investigation/the-hunger-profiteers/?fbclid=IwAR3cDwZwBuEd0elH8Acu17dLGbRftceKRVIVgSKR_LS_hoh3XnGsihrkhro" title="https://www.lighthousereports.nl/investigation/the-hunger-profiteers/?fbclid=IwAR3cDwZwBuEd0elH8Acu17dLGbRftceKRVIVgSKR_LS_hoh3XnGsihrkhro">click here</a> to access</p><p style="text-align:justify">News alert: It&rsquo;s time to protect the poor and the migrants from rising edible oil prices, Inclusive Media for Change, published on June 11, 2021, please <a href="https://im4change.org/news-alerts-57/it-s-time-to-protect-the-poor-and-the-migrants-from-rising-edible-oil-prices.html" title="https://im4change.org/news-alerts-57/it-s-time-to-protect-the-poor-and-the-migrants-from-rising-edible-oil-prices.html">click here</a> to access</p><p style="text-align:justify">Central government plans to scrap wheat import duty -R Suryamurthy,&nbsp;The Telegraph, 8 August, 2022, please <a href="https://www.telegraphindia.com/business/central-government-may-scrap-wheat-import-duty/cid/1878846" title="https://www.telegraphindia.com/business/central-government-may-scrap-wheat-import-duty/cid/1878846">click here</a> to access</p><p style="text-align:justify">Lower <em>kharif</em> plantings due to uneven rains a growing concern, says report -Suchet Vir Singh, ThePrint.in, August 7, 2022, please <a href="https://theprint.in/agriculture/lower-kharif-plantings-due-to-uneven-rains-a-growing-concern-says-report/1072127/" title="https://theprint.in/agriculture/lower-kharif-plantings-due-to-uneven-rains-a-growing-concern-says-report/1072127/">click here</a> to access&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">Poor monsoon does not always translate to high inflation, Moneycontrol.com, August 3, 2022, please <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/poor-monsoon-does-not-always-translate-to-high-inflation-8946831.html" title="https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/poor-monsoon-does-not-always-translate-to-high-inflation-8946831.html">click here</a> to access</p><p style="text-align:justify">First wheat, now rice &mdash; hit by bad weather, output could fall by &lsquo;10 mn tonnes&rsquo; this season -Sayantan Bera, ThePrint.in, 27 July, 2022, please <a href="https://theprint.in/india/first-wheat-now-rice-hit-by-bad-weather-output-could-fall-by-10-mn-tonnes-this-season/1056198/" title="https://theprint.in/india/first-wheat-now-rice-hit-by-bad-weather-output-could-fall-by-10-mn-tonnes-this-season/1056198/">click here</a> to access &nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">Windfall tax on corporations goes as 5% GST on food items kicks in -Prasanna Mohanty, July 21, 2022, Cenfa.org, please <a href="https://www.cenfa.org/windfall-tax-on-corporations-goes-as-5-gst-on-food-items-kicks-in/" title="https://www.cenfa.org/windfall-tax-on-corporations-goes-as-5-gst-on-food-items-kicks-in/">click here</a> to access</p><p style="text-align:justify">Does India have enough rice for welfare schemes and ethanol? What the govt is missing -Siraj Hussain, ThePrint.in, July 14, 2022, please <a href="https://theprint.in/opinion/does-india-have-enough-rice-for-welfare-schemes-and-ethanol-what-the-govt-is-missing/1036965/" title="https://theprint.in/opinion/does-india-have-enough-rice-for-welfare-schemes-and-ethanol-what-the-govt-is-missing/1036965/">click here</a> to access&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">UP &amp; Gujarat demand more wheat under PDS -Sandip Das, The Financial Express, July 6, 2022, please <a href="https://www.financialexpress.com/economy/up-gujarat-demand-more-wheat-under-pds/2584149/" title="https://www.financialexpress.com/economy/up-gujarat-demand-more-wheat-under-pds/2584149/">click here</a> to access</p><p style="text-align:justify">&#39;Betting on Hunger&#39;: Market Speculation Is Contributing to Global Food Insecurity -Kabir Agarwal, Thin Lei Win and Margot Gibbs, TheWire.in, 6 May, 2022, please <a href="https://bit.ly/3sLeOXp" title="https://bit.ly/3sLeOXp">click here</a> to access</p><p style="text-align:justify">Heatwave: Crop losses to be large; wheat and vegetables hit the most -Nayan Dave and Sandip Das, Financial Express, May 2, 2022, please <a href="https://www.financialexpress.com/economy/heatwave-crop-losses-to-be-large-wheat-and-vegetables-hit-the-most/2509633/" title="https://www.financialexpress.com/economy/heatwave-crop-losses-to-be-large-wheat-and-vegetables-hit-the-most/2509633/">click here</a> to access &nbsp;<br />&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify"><strong>Image Courtesy: Himanshu Joshi&nbsp;</strong></p>                                                           
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    <h1 class="cat-box-title">Cereal inflation would be hard to tame amidst low rice acreage </h1>
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                            <p style="text-align:justify">Is India going to face inflation in cereal prices during the rest of the current financial year? Experts differ on this. An <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/poor-monsoon-does-not-always-translate-to-high-inflation-8946831.html?fbclid=IwAR0z-H9J5LhgQAYpB9ZKZIRkDyG6Y3VNk3IfpgPitjyIJAe795P-YH8I0dI" title="https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/poor-monsoon-does-not-always-translate-to-high-inflation-8946831.html?fbclid=IwAR0z-H9J5LhgQAYpB9ZKZIRkDyG6Y3VNk3IfpgPitjyIJAe795P-YH8I0dI">analysis by Nomura</a> <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/poor-monsoon-does-not-always-translate-to-high-inflation-8946831.html?fbclid=IwAR0z-H9J5LhgQAYpB9ZKZIRkDyG6Y3VNk3IfpgPitjyIJAe795P-YH8I0dI" title="https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/poor-monsoon-does-not-always-translate-to-high-inflation-8946831.html?fbclid=IwAR0z-H9J5LhgQAYpB9ZKZIRkDyG6Y3VNk3IfpgPitjyIJAe795P-YH8I0dI">Global Economics and CEIC</a> finds that a below normal monsoon does not always translate into high retail inflation in food. Similarly, an above normal southwest monsoon does not always bring down the rate of food inflation. However, some agricultural experts <em>(please click <a href="https://theprint.in/agriculture/lower-kharif-plantings-due-to-uneven-rains-a-growing-concern-says-report/1072127/" title="https://theprint.in/agriculture/lower-kharif-plantings-due-to-uneven-rains-a-growing-concern-says-report/1072127/">here</a>, <a href="https://theprint.in/opinion/does-india-have-enough-rice-for-welfare-schemes-and-ethanol-what-the-govt-is-missing/1036965/" title="https://theprint.in/opinion/does-india-have-enough-rice-for-welfare-schemes-and-ethanol-what-the-govt-is-missing/1036965/">here</a> and <a href="https://theprint.in/india/first-wheat-now-rice-hit-by-bad-weather-output-could-fall-by-10-mn-tonnes-this-season/1056198/" title="https://theprint.in/india/first-wheat-now-rice-hit-by-bad-weather-output-could-fall-by-10-mn-tonnes-this-season/1056198/">here</a> to access)&nbsp;</em>worry about the slow progress of southwest monsoon rainfall in the rice growing states.&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">The recent data of the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) shows that the year-on-year (YoY) retail inflation rate for &#39;cereals and products&#39; has increased from <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/CPI%20Press%20Release%20June%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/CPI%20Press%20Release%20June%202022.pdf">5.66 percent in June</a> to <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/CPI%20Press%20Release%20July%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/CPI%20Press%20Release%20July%202022.pdf">6.90 percent in July this year</a>.</p><p style="text-align:justify"><strong>Table 1: Annual rate of WPI inflation (YoY) in various commodities (%)</strong></p><p style="text-align:justify"><img alt="" src="/upload/images/Table%201%20Annual%20rate%20of%20WPI%20inflation%20YoY%20in%20various%20commodities%281%29.png" style="height:183px; width:1000px" /></p><p style="text-align:justify"><em><strong>Note: </strong>* = Provisional</em></p><p style="text-align:justify"><em><strong>Source:&nbsp;</strong>Press release: Index Numbers of Wholesale Price in India for the Month of June, 2022 (Base Year: 2011-12), Ministry of Commerce and Industry, released on July 14, 2022, please <a href="/upload/files/WPI%20released%20on%2014th%20July%202022.pdf" title="/upload/files/WPI%20released%20on%2014th%20July%202022.pdf">click here</a> to access</em></p><p style="text-align:justify">---</p><p style="text-align:justify">It is visible from table-1 that the annual rate of wholesale price index (WPI) inflation (YoY) in the case of paddy has increased gradually from almost zero percent in February to 2.35 percent in June this year. For cereals, the rate of WPI inflation (YoY) has stayed at around 8 percent in each of the months from March to June. The movement in the WPI of cereals is likely to affect its retail price&nbsp;after a period of lag.</p><p style="text-align:justify"><strong>The bad news -- rice acreage is low&nbsp;so far</strong></p><p style="text-align:justify">According to the <a href="/upload/files/CWWG%20Meeting%20held%20on%2029%20July%202022.pdf" title="/upload/files/CWWG%20Meeting%20held%20on%2029%20July%202022.pdf">Directorate of Economics and Statistics</a>, due to the late arrival of the southwest monsoon in some states, as on July 29, 2022, the area sown under rice was 231.59 lakh hectare (ha.) as compared to 267.05 lakh ha. in the corresponding period last year. The <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/As%20on%2029%20July%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/As%20on%2029%20July%202022.pdf">normal area under rice</a> cultivation in the corresponding week <em>(i.e.,&nbsp;<a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/As%20on%2029%20July%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/As%20on%2029%20July%202022.pdf">average of 2017-18 to 2021-22</a>)</em> was <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/As%20on%2029%20July%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/As%20on%2029%20July%202022.pdf">259.20 lakh ha</a>.&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">As <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/CWWG%20Meeting%20held%20on%2029%20July%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/CWWG%20Meeting%20held%20on%2029%20July%202022.pdf">per the Government</a>, the area under rice cultivation is likely to pick up. It must be noted that just a fortnight back i.e., as on July 15, 2022, <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/As%20on%2015%20July%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/As%20on%2015%20July%202022.pdf">the area sown under rice was 128.5 lakh ha.</a> as compared to 155.53 lakh ha. in the corresponding period last year. The area under rice cultivation at the national level is the sum of area sown under rice in various states. The state level data is provided by the State Departments of Agriculture. &nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify"><strong>The good news</strong></p><p style="text-align:justify">In the <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/As%20on%2029%20July%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/As%20on%2029%20July%202022.pdf">week ending July 28, 2022, the area</a>&nbsp;<a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/As%20on%2029%20July%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/As%20on%2029%20July%202022.pdf">under coarse cereals cultivation stood</a> <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/As%20on%2029%20July%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/As%20on%2029%20July%202022.pdf">at 142.21 lakh ha. against 135.30 lakh ha.</a> during the corresponding period last year. Therefore, a part of the shortfall in cereal output this year is likely to&nbsp;be compensated by an increase in the production of nutri-cereals, which according to experts, are more nutritious than rice or wheat. Unlike rice, they are not water guzzling crops and are also grown by farmers doing rainfed cultivation. One must recall here that due to <a href="https://www.financialexpress.com/economy/heatwave-crop-losses-to-be-large-wheat-and-vegetables-hit-the-most/2509633/" title="https://www.financialexpress.com/economy/heatwave-crop-losses-to-be-large-wheat-and-vegetables-hit-the-most/2509633/">hot weather like conditions</a> in March and April this year, farmers of Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and parts of Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh witnessed shriveled wheat grains and a <a href="https://www.financialexpress.com/economy/heatwave-crop-losses-to-be-large-wheat-and-vegetables-hit-the-most/2509633/" title="https://www.financialexpress.com/economy/heatwave-crop-losses-to-be-large-wheat-and-vegetables-hit-the-most/2509633/">decline in the wheat yield</a>. &nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">In the week ending July 27, 2022, the area sown under pulses was found to be <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/As%20on%2029%20July%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/As%20on%2029%20July%202022.pdf">106.18 lakh ha. as against 103.23 lakh ha.</a> during the corresponding period last year. This too brings a glimmer of hope amidst the decline in wheat yield and an expected fall in <em>kharif </em>rice output this year. &nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify"><strong>It&#39;s about procurement, stupid!</strong></p><p style="text-align:justify">Wheat procurement by the Food Corporation of India (FCI) and the state agencies in the <em>rabi</em> marketing season of 2022-23 fared poorly in comparison to last year. One reason behind this is low wheat production. As per a <a href="/upload/files/USDA%20India%20-%20Extreme%20Temperatures%20Scorch%20Indian%20Wheat%20Production_New%20Delhi_India_IN2022-0045.pdf" title="/upload/files/USDA%20India%20-%20Extreme%20Temperatures%20Scorch%20Indian%20Wheat%20Production_New%20Delhi_India_IN2022-0045.pdf">press release</a> by the <a href="https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/india-india-extreme-temperatures-scorch-indian-wheat-production" title="https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/india-india-extreme-temperatures-scorch-indian-wheat-production">United States Department of Agriculture</a> dated May 25, 2022, &quot;[h]eat stress resulting from an unprecedented spike in temperatures beginning in the mid-March 2022 has had a marked impact&nbsp;India&rsquo;s wheat crop. Yields are 10-15 percent down, driving India&rsquo;s forecasted market year (MY) 2022/23 (April-March) wheat production down from 110 million metric tons (MMT) to 99 MMT. On May 13, 2022, the Indian government announced a ban on wheat exports, citing the sudden spike in global wheat prices and the resulting food security risks to India.&quot;</p><p style="text-align:justify">It should be added here that <a href="/upload/files/Progress%20of%20area%20coverage%20under%20rabi%20crops%20as%20on%2028%20January%202022.pdf" title="/upload/files/Progress%20of%20area%20coverage%20under%20rabi%20crops%20as%20on%2028%20January%202022.pdf">as on January 27, 2022</a>, <a href="/upload/files/Progress%20of%20area%20coverage%20under%20rabi%20crops%20as%20on%2028%20January%202022.pdf" title="/upload/files/Progress%20of%20area%20coverage%20under%20rabi%20crops%20as%20on%2028%20January%202022.pdf">wheat rabi acreage</a> was found to be <a href="/upload/files/Progress%20of%20area%20coverage%20under%20rabi%20crops%20as%20on%2028%20January%202022.pdf" title="/upload/files/Progress%20of%20area%20coverage%20under%20rabi%20crops%20as%20on%2028%20January%202022.pdf">342.37 lakh ha</a>. as compared to <a href="/upload/files/Progress%20of%20area%20coverage%20under%20rabi%20crops%20as%20on%2028%20January%202022.pdf" title="/upload/files/Progress%20of%20area%20coverage%20under%20rabi%20crops%20as%20on%2028%20January%202022.pdf">345.86 lakh ha.</a> in the corresponding period last year. On the contrary, in the <a href="/upload/files/Progress%20of%20area%20coverage%20under%20rabi%20crops%20as%20on%2028%20January%202022.pdf" title="/upload/files/Progress%20of%20area%20coverage%20under%20rabi%20crops%20as%20on%2028%20January%202022.pdf">week ending January 27, 2022</a>, <a href="/upload/files/Progress%20of%20area%20coverage%20under%20rabi%20crops%20as%20on%2028%20January%202022.pdf" title="/upload/files/Progress%20of%20area%20coverage%20under%20rabi%20crops%20as%20on%2028%20January%202022.pdf">mustard and rapeseed rabi acreage</a> stood at <a href="/upload/files/Progress%20of%20area%20coverage%20under%20rabi%20crops%20as%20on%2028%20January%202022.pdf" title="/upload/files/Progress%20of%20area%20coverage%20under%20rabi%20crops%20as%20on%2028%20January%202022.pdf">91.44 lakh ha.</a> against <a href="/upload/files/Progress%20of%20area%20coverage%20under%20rabi%20crops%20as%20on%2028%20January%202022.pdf" title="/upload/files/Progress%20of%20area%20coverage%20under%20rabi%20crops%20as%20on%2028%20January%202022.pdf">73.12 lakh ha.</a> in the corresponding period last year.</p><p style="text-align:justify">The progressive procurement as on June 30, 2022 in the marketing season 2022-23 was 187.89 lakh metric tonnes, whereas the progressive procurement as on July 2, 2021 in the marketing season 2021-22 was 433.21 lakh metric tonnes <em>(i.e., 56.63 percent lower in the rabi marketing season 2022-23 as compared to the previous RMS)</em>. The progressive procurement as on July 3, 2020 in the marketing season 2020-21 stood at 389.38 lakh metric tonnes.</p><p style="text-align:justify"><strong>Table 2: Procurement of wheat at the national level and state levels (in lakh metric tonnes)&nbsp;</strong></p><p style="text-align:justify"><img alt="" src="/upload/images/Table%201%20Procurement%20of%20wheat%20at%20the%20national%20level%20and%20state%20levels%20in%20lakh%20tonnes.png" style="height:359px; width:420px" /></p><p style="text-align:justify"><em><strong>Source: </strong>Minutes of the&nbsp;Crop Weather Watch Group (CWWG) Meeting held on July 1, 2022, please <a href="/upload/files/CWWG%20Minutes%20as%20on%2001072022.pdf" title="/upload/files/CWWG%20Minutes%20as%20on%2001072022.pdf">click here</a> to read more&nbsp;<br />Minutes of the CWWG Meeting held on July 2, 2021, please <a href="/upload/files/CWWG%20Minutes%20as%20on%2002072021.pdf" title="/upload/files/CWWG%20Minutes%20as%20on%2002072021.pdf">click here</a> to read more&nbsp;<br />Minutes of the CWWG Meeting held on July 3, 2020, please <a href="/upload/files/CWWG%20Minutes%20as%20on%2006072020.pdf" title="/upload/files/CWWG%20Minutes%20as%20on%2006072020.pdf">click here</a> to read more&nbsp;</em><br /><strong>---</strong></p><p style="text-align:justify">Table-2 shows that the progressive procurement of wheat in Punjab, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh&nbsp;as on June 30, 2022 was lower than what was procured in the corresponding period in the last two years.&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">But why was wheat procurement so low in March-April, 2022? As said earlier, wheat output was impacted by heat wave coupled with no pre-monsoon-showers in early 2022. Thanks to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, there is a shortage of wheat in <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/USDA%20India%20-%20Extreme%20Temperatures%20Scorch%20Indian%20Wheat%20Production_New%20Delhi_India_IN2022-0045.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/USDA%20India%20-%20Extreme%20Temperatures%20Scorch%20Indian%20Wheat%20Production_New%20Delhi_India_IN2022-0045.pdf">various countries where wheat is imported</a>. As a result, <a href="https://www.fao.org/giews/food-prices/international-prices/detail/en/c/1599378/" title="https://www.fao.org/giews/food-prices/international-prices/detail/en/c/1599378/">international</a> <a href="https://www.fao.org/giews/food-prices/international-prices/detail/en/c/1599378/" title="https://www.fao.org/giews/food-prices/international-prices/detail/en/c/1599378/">wheat prices are higher than before</a>.&nbsp;Speculation in commodity futures markets, has also led to an enormous increase in global wheat prices <em>(please click <a href="https://im4change.org/latest-news-updates/food-price-inflation-could-have-been-avoided-says-new-ipes-food-report.html" title="https://im4change.org/latest-news-updates/food-price-inflation-could-have-been-avoided-says-new-ipes-food-report.html">here</a>, <a href="https://www.lighthousereports.nl/investigation/the-hunger-profiteers/?fbclid=IwAR3cDwZwBuEd0elH8Acu17dLGbRftceKRVIVgSKR_LS_hoh3XnGsihrkhro" title="https://www.lighthousereports.nl/investigation/the-hunger-profiteers/?fbclid=IwAR3cDwZwBuEd0elH8Acu17dLGbRftceKRVIVgSKR_LS_hoh3XnGsihrkhro">here</a>, <a href="https://www.fao.org/3/cb9427en/cb9427en.pdf" title="https://www.fao.org/3/cb9427en/cb9427en.pdf">here</a> and <a href="https://thewire.in/economy/speculation-is-contributing-to-global-food-insecurity-significantly" title="https://thewire.in/economy/speculation-is-contributing-to-global-food-insecurity-significantly">here</a> to access)</em>.&nbsp;Wheat traders who indulge in exporting wheat from India saw an opportunity in this and they bought wheat <em>(despite low domestic production)</em> from <em>mandis </em>situated in wheat producing states such as Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh at prices higher than the <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/Cabinet%20increases%20Minimum%20Support%20Prices%20%28MSP%29%20for%20Rabi%20crops%20for%20marketing%20season%202022-23.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/Cabinet%20increases%20Minimum%20Support%20Prices%20%28MSP%29%20for%20Rabi%20crops%20for%20marketing%20season%202022-23.pdf">minimum support price</a>, which is <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/Cabinet%20increases%20Minimum%20Support%20Prices%20%28MSP%29%20for%20Rabi%20crops%20for%20marketing%20season%202022-23.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/Cabinet%20increases%20Minimum%20Support%20Prices%20%28MSP%29%20for%20Rabi%20crops%20for%20marketing%20season%202022-23.pdf">declared by the Union Government</a>.&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify"><strong>Table 3: State wise Wholesale Prices Monthly Analysis for Wheat in March and April, 2022</strong></p><p style="text-align:justify"><img alt="" src="/upload/images/Table%202%20State%20wise%20Wholesale%20Prices%20Monthly%20Analysis%20for%20Wheat%20April%202022.PNG" style="height:546px; width:831px" /></p><p style="text-align:justify"><em><strong>Source: </strong>Agmarket Portal of Government of India, <a href="https://agmarknet.gov.in/Default.aspx" title="https://agmarknet.gov.in/Default.aspx">https://agmarknet.gov.in/Default.aspx</a>&nbsp;</em><br /><strong>---</strong></p><p style="text-align:justify">The MSP for wheat was fixed at Rs. 2,015/- per quintal during <em>rabi</em> marketing season 2022-23. In Madhya Pradesh, the wholesale price <em>(as reported by APMCs) </em>stood at Rs. 2,192.42 per quintal in March and Rs. 2,151.74 per quintal in April this year. In Punjab, the wholesale price was Rs. 2,028.55 per quintal in March and Rs. 2,015.34 per quintal in April 2022. In Haryana, the wholesale price was Rs. 2,050/- per quintal in March and Rs. 2016.78 per quintal in April this year. In Uttar Pradesh, the wholesale price was Rs. 2,033.62/- per quintal in March and Rs. 2,043.66 per quintal in April 2022.&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">As can be observed from table-3,&nbsp;in the main wheat producing states of India, the wholesale prices in March and April this year were greater than what existed in the corresponding months last year. &nbsp;&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify"><strong>Why is public procurement so important for controlling inflation?</strong></p><p style="text-align:justify">As per the&nbsp;<a href="https://dfpd.gov.in/omss_C.htm" title="https://dfpd.gov.in/omss_C.htm">Department of Food and Public Distribution</a>, the FCI sells surplus stocks of wheat and rice under the Open Market Sale Scheme (Domestic) i.e., OMSS(D),&nbsp;at pre-determined prices through e-auction in the open market from time to time to enhance the supply of food grains, especially wheat during the lean season and thereby moderate the open market prices specially in the deficit regions. Even during the times of high retail inflation, excess of the foodgrains procured/ stocked is sold in the open market for taming price rise. If the procurement is low, as it happened for wheat in the RMS 2022-23, then the Government is unable to release surplus foodgrain stocks.&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">The data on <a href="/upload/files/Foodgrain%20Bulletin%20for%20July%202022.pdf" title="/upload/files/Foodgrain%20Bulletin%20for%20July%202022.pdf">quarterly stock position of food grains</a> <a href="/upload/files/Foodgrain%20Bulletin%20for%20July%202022.pdf" title="/upload/files/Foodgrain%20Bulletin%20for%20July%202022.pdf">in the Central pool</a> reveals that as on July 1, 2022, the stock of wheat was <a href="/upload/files/Central%20pool%20stock%20as%20on%201%20July%202022.PNG" title="/upload/files/Central%20pool%20stock%20as%20on%201%20July%202022.PNG">285.10 lakh tonnes</a> as opposed to <a href="/upload/files/Central%20pool%20stock%20as%20on%201%20July%202022.PNG" title="/upload/files/Central%20pool%20stock%20as%20on%201%20July%202022.PNG">603.56 lakh tonnes</a> in the corresponding period last year.&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">Under the <a href="https://im4change.org/news-alerts-57/it-s-time-to-protect-the-poor-and-the-migrants-from-rising-edible-oil-prices.html" title="https://im4change.org/news-alerts-57/it-s-time-to-protect-the-poor-and-the-migrants-from-rising-edible-oil-prices.html">Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana (PMGKAY)</a>, about 81 crore beneficiaries covered under both categories of National Food Security Act, namely Antyodaya Anna Yojana (AAY) and Priority Householders (PHH), are provided with an <a href="https://im4change.org/news-alerts-57/it-s-time-to-protect-the-poor-and-the-migrants-from-rising-edible-oil-prices.html" title="https://im4change.org/news-alerts-57/it-s-time-to-protect-the-poor-and-the-migrants-from-rising-edible-oil-prices.html">additional quota of free-of-cost foodgrains</a> (rice/ wheat) at a scale of 5 kg per person per month, over and above their regular monthly entitlements. In <a href="https://im4change.org/news-alerts-57/it-s-time-to-protect-the-poor-and-the-migrants-from-rising-edible-oil-prices.html" title="https://im4change.org/news-alerts-57/it-s-time-to-protect-the-poor-and-the-migrants-from-rising-edible-oil-prices.html">some phases of PMGKAY</a>, 1 kg of pulses was also provided per family per month. The PMGKAY has been extended by the Government recently for a <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/PIB%20PMGKAY.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/PIB%20PMGKAY.pdf">period of another six months</a> i.e. April to September, 2022 (Phase-VI) . The PDS <em>(i.e., Public Distribution System) </em>beneficiaries in the states of <a href="https://www.financialexpress.com/economy/up-gujarat-demand-more-wheat-under-pds/2584149/" title="https://www.financialexpress.com/economy/up-gujarat-demand-more-wheat-under-pds/2584149/">Gujarat and Uttar Pradesh</a> were allocated wheat and rice in proportion of <a href="https://www.financialexpress.com/economy/up-gujarat-demand-more-wheat-under-pds/2584149/" title="https://www.financialexpress.com/economy/up-gujarat-demand-more-wheat-under-pds/2584149/">3 kg (wheat) and 2 kg (rice)</a> for each beneficiary per month till May this year. However, after that the Government reversed it to 2 kg (wheat) and 3 kg (rice) chiefly because of the decline in wheat stocks with the FCI.</p><p style="text-align:justify">Apart from the points discussed above, according to <a href="https://www.cenfa.org/windfall-tax-on-corporations-goes-as-5-gst-on-food-items-kicks-in/?fbclid=IwAR0xurOlKDoslWPiGL3SheIptZfAK7_wZasYX5zbGqtcpaLz8W3a4922UYo" title="https://www.cenfa.org/windfall-tax-on-corporations-goes-as-5-gst-on-food-items-kicks-in/?fbclid=IwAR0xurOlKDoslWPiGL3SheIptZfAK7_wZasYX5zbGqtcpaLz8W3a4922UYo">some experts</a>, a 5 percent Goods and Services Tax <a href="/upload/files/FAQ%20GST.pdf" title="/upload/files/FAQ%20GST.pdf">(GST) that was imposed</a>, on July 18, on &#39;<a href="/upload/files/FAQ%20GST.pdf" title="/upload/files/FAQ%20GST.pdf">pre-packaged and labelled</a>&#39;&nbsp;<em>(including unbranded) </em>food items, like wheat, rice, curd, <em>lassi</em>, puffed rice, mutton and fish, will further make it difficult for the Union and State Governments to bring down high retail inflation.</p><p style="text-align:justify"><br /><strong><em>References</em></strong></p><p>Press release: Consumer Price Index on Base 2012=100 for Rural, Urban and Combined for the Month of July 2022, released on August 12, 2022, Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), please <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/CPI%20Press%20Release%20July%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/CPI%20Press%20Release%20July%202022.pdf">click here</a> to access</p><p>Press release: Consumer Price Index on Base 2012=100 for Rural, Urban and Combined for the Month of June 2022, released on July 12, 2022, Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), please <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/CPI%20Press%20Release%20June%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/CPI%20Press%20Release%20June%202022.pdf">click here</a> to access</p><p style="text-align:justify">Minutes of the&nbsp;Crop Weather Watch Group (CWWG) Meeting held on July 1, 2022, please <a href="/upload/files/CWWG%20Minutes%20as%20on%2001072022.pdf" title="/upload/files/CWWG%20Minutes%20as%20on%2001072022.pdf">click here</a> to read more&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">Minutes of the CWWG Meeting held on July 2, 2021, please <a href="/upload/files/CWWG%20Minutes%20as%20on%2002072021.pdf" title="/upload/files/CWWG%20Minutes%20as%20on%2002072021.pdf">click here</a> to read more&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">Minutes of the CWWG Meeting held on July 3, 2020, please <a href="/upload/files/CWWG%20Minutes%20as%20on%2006072020.pdf" title="/upload/files/CWWG%20Minutes%20as%20on%2006072020.pdf">click here</a> to read more&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">Press release: Centre incurs 39,996.184 Crore Provisional Subsidy in Pradhan Mantri Gareeb Kalyan Ann Yojana for 2022-23 upto 12.07.2022, Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food &amp; Public Distribution, Press Information Bureau, released on July 27, 2022, please <a href="/upload/files/PIB%20PMGKAY.pdf" title="/upload/files/PIB%20PMGKAY.pdf">click here</a> to access</p><p style="text-align:justify">Progress of area coverage under <em>kharif</em> crops as on 29 July, 2022, please <a href="/upload/files/As%20on%2029%20July%202022.pdf" title="/upload/files/As%20on%2029%20July%202022.pdf">click here</a> to access&nbsp; &nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">Progress of area coverage under <em>kharif</em> crops as on 15 July, 2022, please <a href="/upload/files/As%20on%2015%20July%202022.pdf" title="/upload/files/As%20on%2015%20July%202022.pdf">click here</a> to access&nbsp; &nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">Progress of area coverage under <em>rabi </em>crops as on 28 January, 2022, please <a href="/upload/files/Progress%20of%20area%20coverage%20under%20rabi%20crops%20as%20on%2028%20January%202022.pdf" title="/upload/files/Progress%20of%20area%20coverage%20under%20rabi%20crops%20as%20on%2028%20January%202022.pdf">click here</a> to access &nbsp;&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">Press release: FAQs on GST applicability on &lsquo;pre-packaged and labelled&rsquo; goods, Ministry of Finance, Press Information Bureau, released on July 18, 2022, please <a href="/upload/files/FAQ%20GST.pdf" title="/upload/files/FAQ%20GST.pdf">click here</a> to access&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">Press release: Index Numbers of Wholesale Price in India for the Month of June, 2022 (Base Year: 2011-12), Ministry of Commerce and Industry, released on July 14, 2022, please <a href="/upload/files/WPI%20released%20on%2014th%20July%202022.pdf" title="/upload/files/WPI%20released%20on%2014th%20July%202022.pdf">click here</a> to access</p><p style="text-align:justify">Press release: Cabinet increases Minimum Support Prices (MSP) for <em>rabi </em>crops for marketing season 2022-23, Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA), Press Information Bureau, 8 September, 2021,&nbsp;please <a href="/upload/files/Cabinet%20increases%20Minimum%20Support%20Prices%20%28MSP%29%20for%20Rabi%20crops%20for%20marketing%20season%202022-23.pdf" title="/upload/files/Cabinet%20increases%20Minimum%20Support%20Prices%20%28MSP%29%20for%20Rabi%20crops%20for%20marketing%20season%202022-23.pdf">click here</a> to access&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">Food grain Bulletin for July 2022, Department of Food and Public Distribution, please <a href="/upload/files/Foodgrain%20Bulletin%20for%20July%202022.pdf" title="/upload/files/Foodgrain%20Bulletin%20for%20July%202022.pdf">click here</a> to access&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">Food Outlook for June 2022: Biannual Report on Global Food Markets, FAO, please <a href="https://www.fao.org/3/cb9427en/cb9427en.pdf" title="https://www.fao.org/3/cb9427en/cb9427en.pdf">click here</a> to access</p><p style="text-align:justify">International prices of wheat and coarse grains declined, while those of rice edged up in June, released on July 12, 2022, Food Price Monitoring and Analysis, FAO, please <a href="https://www.fao.org/giews/food-prices/international-prices/detail/en/c/1599378/" title="https://www.fao.org/giews/food-prices/international-prices/detail/en/c/1599378/">click here</a> to access</p><p style="text-align:justify">India: India - Extreme Temperatures Scorch Indian Wheat Production, &nbsp;Attach&eacute; Report (GAIN), IN2022-0045,&nbsp;United States Department of Agriculture, May 25, 2022, please <a href="https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/india-india-extreme-temperatures-scorch-indian-wheat-production" title="https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/india-india-extreme-temperatures-scorch-indian-wheat-production">click here</a> to access</p><p style="text-align:justify">Press coverage: Food price inflation could have been avoided, says new IPES-Food report, International Panel of Experts on Sustainable Food Systems (IPES-Food), May 6, 2022 please click <a href="https://im4change.org/latest-news-updates/food-price-inflation-could-have-been-avoided-says-new-ipes-food-report.html" title="https://im4change.org/latest-news-updates/food-price-inflation-could-have-been-avoided-says-new-ipes-food-report.html">here</a>, <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/Food%20price%20crisis%20report_press%20release%20by%20IPES%20Food.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/Food%20price%20crisis%20report_press%20release%20by%20IPES%20Food.pdf">here</a> and <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/Another%20Perfect%20Storm.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/Another%20Perfect%20Storm.pdf">here</a> to access</p><p style="text-align:justify">THE HUNGER PROFITEERS, Lighthouse Reports, May 6, 2022, please <a href="https://www.lighthousereports.nl/investigation/the-hunger-profiteers/?fbclid=IwAR3cDwZwBuEd0elH8Acu17dLGbRftceKRVIVgSKR_LS_hoh3XnGsihrkhro" title="https://www.lighthousereports.nl/investigation/the-hunger-profiteers/?fbclid=IwAR3cDwZwBuEd0elH8Acu17dLGbRftceKRVIVgSKR_LS_hoh3XnGsihrkhro">click here</a> to access</p><p style="text-align:justify">News alert: It&rsquo;s time to protect the poor and the migrants from rising edible oil prices, Inclusive Media for Change, published on June 11, 2021, please <a href="https://im4change.org/news-alerts-57/it-s-time-to-protect-the-poor-and-the-migrants-from-rising-edible-oil-prices.html" title="https://im4change.org/news-alerts-57/it-s-time-to-protect-the-poor-and-the-migrants-from-rising-edible-oil-prices.html">click here</a> to access</p><p style="text-align:justify">Central government plans to scrap wheat import duty -R Suryamurthy,&nbsp;The Telegraph, 8 August, 2022, please <a href="https://www.telegraphindia.com/business/central-government-may-scrap-wheat-import-duty/cid/1878846" title="https://www.telegraphindia.com/business/central-government-may-scrap-wheat-import-duty/cid/1878846">click here</a> to access</p><p style="text-align:justify">Lower <em>kharif</em> plantings due to uneven rains a growing concern, says report -Suchet Vir Singh, ThePrint.in, August 7, 2022, please <a href="https://theprint.in/agriculture/lower-kharif-plantings-due-to-uneven-rains-a-growing-concern-says-report/1072127/" title="https://theprint.in/agriculture/lower-kharif-plantings-due-to-uneven-rains-a-growing-concern-says-report/1072127/">click here</a> to access&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">Poor monsoon does not always translate to high inflation, Moneycontrol.com, August 3, 2022, please <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/poor-monsoon-does-not-always-translate-to-high-inflation-8946831.html" title="https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/poor-monsoon-does-not-always-translate-to-high-inflation-8946831.html">click here</a> to access</p><p style="text-align:justify">First wheat, now rice &mdash; hit by bad weather, output could fall by &lsquo;10 mn tonnes&rsquo; this season -Sayantan Bera, ThePrint.in, 27 July, 2022, please <a href="https://theprint.in/india/first-wheat-now-rice-hit-by-bad-weather-output-could-fall-by-10-mn-tonnes-this-season/1056198/" title="https://theprint.in/india/first-wheat-now-rice-hit-by-bad-weather-output-could-fall-by-10-mn-tonnes-this-season/1056198/">click here</a> to access &nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">Windfall tax on corporations goes as 5% GST on food items kicks in -Prasanna Mohanty, July 21, 2022, Cenfa.org, please <a href="https://www.cenfa.org/windfall-tax-on-corporations-goes-as-5-gst-on-food-items-kicks-in/" title="https://www.cenfa.org/windfall-tax-on-corporations-goes-as-5-gst-on-food-items-kicks-in/">click here</a> to access</p><p style="text-align:justify">Does India have enough rice for welfare schemes and ethanol? What the govt is missing -Siraj Hussain, ThePrint.in, July 14, 2022, please <a href="https://theprint.in/opinion/does-india-have-enough-rice-for-welfare-schemes-and-ethanol-what-the-govt-is-missing/1036965/" title="https://theprint.in/opinion/does-india-have-enough-rice-for-welfare-schemes-and-ethanol-what-the-govt-is-missing/1036965/">click here</a> to access&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">UP &amp; Gujarat demand more wheat under PDS -Sandip Das, The Financial Express, July 6, 2022, please <a href="https://www.financialexpress.com/economy/up-gujarat-demand-more-wheat-under-pds/2584149/" title="https://www.financialexpress.com/economy/up-gujarat-demand-more-wheat-under-pds/2584149/">click here</a> to access</p><p style="text-align:justify">&#39;Betting on Hunger&#39;: Market Speculation Is Contributing to Global Food Insecurity -Kabir Agarwal, Thin Lei Win and Margot Gibbs, TheWire.in, 6 May, 2022, please <a href="https://bit.ly/3sLeOXp" title="https://bit.ly/3sLeOXp">click here</a> to access</p><p style="text-align:justify">Heatwave: Crop losses to be large; wheat and vegetables hit the most -Nayan Dave and Sandip Das, Financial Express, May 2, 2022, please <a href="https://www.financialexpress.com/economy/heatwave-crop-losses-to-be-large-wheat-and-vegetables-hit-the-most/2509633/" title="https://www.financialexpress.com/economy/heatwave-crop-losses-to-be-large-wheat-and-vegetables-hit-the-most/2509633/">click here</a> to access &nbsp;<br />&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify"><strong>Image Courtesy: Himanshu Joshi&nbsp;</strong></p>                                                           
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    <h1 class="cat-box-title">Cereal inflation would be hard to tame amidst low rice acreage </h1>
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                            <p style="text-align:justify">Is India going to face inflation in cereal prices during the rest of the current financial year? Experts differ on this. An <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/poor-monsoon-does-not-always-translate-to-high-inflation-8946831.html?fbclid=IwAR0z-H9J5LhgQAYpB9ZKZIRkDyG6Y3VNk3IfpgPitjyIJAe795P-YH8I0dI" title="https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/poor-monsoon-does-not-always-translate-to-high-inflation-8946831.html?fbclid=IwAR0z-H9J5LhgQAYpB9ZKZIRkDyG6Y3VNk3IfpgPitjyIJAe795P-YH8I0dI">analysis by Nomura</a> <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/poor-monsoon-does-not-always-translate-to-high-inflation-8946831.html?fbclid=IwAR0z-H9J5LhgQAYpB9ZKZIRkDyG6Y3VNk3IfpgPitjyIJAe795P-YH8I0dI" title="https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/poor-monsoon-does-not-always-translate-to-high-inflation-8946831.html?fbclid=IwAR0z-H9J5LhgQAYpB9ZKZIRkDyG6Y3VNk3IfpgPitjyIJAe795P-YH8I0dI">Global Economics and CEIC</a> finds that a below normal monsoon does not always translate into high retail inflation in food. Similarly, an above normal southwest monsoon does not always bring down the rate of food inflation. However, some agricultural experts <em>(please click <a href="https://theprint.in/agriculture/lower-kharif-plantings-due-to-uneven-rains-a-growing-concern-says-report/1072127/" title="https://theprint.in/agriculture/lower-kharif-plantings-due-to-uneven-rains-a-growing-concern-says-report/1072127/">here</a>, <a href="https://theprint.in/opinion/does-india-have-enough-rice-for-welfare-schemes-and-ethanol-what-the-govt-is-missing/1036965/" title="https://theprint.in/opinion/does-india-have-enough-rice-for-welfare-schemes-and-ethanol-what-the-govt-is-missing/1036965/">here</a> and <a href="https://theprint.in/india/first-wheat-now-rice-hit-by-bad-weather-output-could-fall-by-10-mn-tonnes-this-season/1056198/" title="https://theprint.in/india/first-wheat-now-rice-hit-by-bad-weather-output-could-fall-by-10-mn-tonnes-this-season/1056198/">here</a> to access)&nbsp;</em>worry about the slow progress of southwest monsoon rainfall in the rice growing states.&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">The recent data of the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) shows that the year-on-year (YoY) retail inflation rate for &#39;cereals and products&#39; has increased from <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/CPI%20Press%20Release%20June%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/CPI%20Press%20Release%20June%202022.pdf">5.66 percent in June</a> to <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/CPI%20Press%20Release%20July%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/CPI%20Press%20Release%20July%202022.pdf">6.90 percent in July this year</a>.</p><p style="text-align:justify"><strong>Table 1: Annual rate of WPI inflation (YoY) in various commodities (%)</strong></p><p style="text-align:justify"><img alt="" src="/upload/images/Table%201%20Annual%20rate%20of%20WPI%20inflation%20YoY%20in%20various%20commodities%281%29.png" style="height:183px; width:1000px" /></p><p style="text-align:justify"><em><strong>Note: </strong>* = Provisional</em></p><p style="text-align:justify"><em><strong>Source:&nbsp;</strong>Press release: Index Numbers of Wholesale Price in India for the Month of June, 2022 (Base Year: 2011-12), Ministry of Commerce and Industry, released on July 14, 2022, please <a href="/upload/files/WPI%20released%20on%2014th%20July%202022.pdf" title="/upload/files/WPI%20released%20on%2014th%20July%202022.pdf">click here</a> to access</em></p><p style="text-align:justify">---</p><p style="text-align:justify">It is visible from table-1 that the annual rate of wholesale price index (WPI) inflation (YoY) in the case of paddy has increased gradually from almost zero percent in February to 2.35 percent in June this year. For cereals, the rate of WPI inflation (YoY) has stayed at around 8 percent in each of the months from March to June. The movement in the WPI of cereals is likely to affect its retail price&nbsp;after a period of lag.</p><p style="text-align:justify"><strong>The bad news -- rice acreage is low&nbsp;so far</strong></p><p style="text-align:justify">According to the <a href="/upload/files/CWWG%20Meeting%20held%20on%2029%20July%202022.pdf" title="/upload/files/CWWG%20Meeting%20held%20on%2029%20July%202022.pdf">Directorate of Economics and Statistics</a>, due to the late arrival of the southwest monsoon in some states, as on July 29, 2022, the area sown under rice was 231.59 lakh hectare (ha.) as compared to 267.05 lakh ha. in the corresponding period last year. The <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/As%20on%2029%20July%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/As%20on%2029%20July%202022.pdf">normal area under rice</a> cultivation in the corresponding week <em>(i.e.,&nbsp;<a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/As%20on%2029%20July%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/As%20on%2029%20July%202022.pdf">average of 2017-18 to 2021-22</a>)</em> was <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/As%20on%2029%20July%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/As%20on%2029%20July%202022.pdf">259.20 lakh ha</a>.&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">As <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/CWWG%20Meeting%20held%20on%2029%20July%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/CWWG%20Meeting%20held%20on%2029%20July%202022.pdf">per the Government</a>, the area under rice cultivation is likely to pick up. It must be noted that just a fortnight back i.e., as on July 15, 2022, <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/As%20on%2015%20July%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/As%20on%2015%20July%202022.pdf">the area sown under rice was 128.5 lakh ha.</a> as compared to 155.53 lakh ha. in the corresponding period last year. The area under rice cultivation at the national level is the sum of area sown under rice in various states. The state level data is provided by the State Departments of Agriculture. &nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify"><strong>The good news</strong></p><p style="text-align:justify">In the <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/As%20on%2029%20July%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/As%20on%2029%20July%202022.pdf">week ending July 28, 2022, the area</a>&nbsp;<a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/As%20on%2029%20July%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/As%20on%2029%20July%202022.pdf">under coarse cereals cultivation stood</a> <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/As%20on%2029%20July%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/As%20on%2029%20July%202022.pdf">at 142.21 lakh ha. against 135.30 lakh ha.</a> during the corresponding period last year. Therefore, a part of the shortfall in cereal output this year is likely to&nbsp;be compensated by an increase in the production of nutri-cereals, which according to experts, are more nutritious than rice or wheat. Unlike rice, they are not water guzzling crops and are also grown by farmers doing rainfed cultivation. One must recall here that due to <a href="https://www.financialexpress.com/economy/heatwave-crop-losses-to-be-large-wheat-and-vegetables-hit-the-most/2509633/" title="https://www.financialexpress.com/economy/heatwave-crop-losses-to-be-large-wheat-and-vegetables-hit-the-most/2509633/">hot weather like conditions</a> in March and April this year, farmers of Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and parts of Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh witnessed shriveled wheat grains and a <a href="https://www.financialexpress.com/economy/heatwave-crop-losses-to-be-large-wheat-and-vegetables-hit-the-most/2509633/" title="https://www.financialexpress.com/economy/heatwave-crop-losses-to-be-large-wheat-and-vegetables-hit-the-most/2509633/">decline in the wheat yield</a>. &nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">In the week ending July 27, 2022, the area sown under pulses was found to be <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/As%20on%2029%20July%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/As%20on%2029%20July%202022.pdf">106.18 lakh ha. as against 103.23 lakh ha.</a> during the corresponding period last year. This too brings a glimmer of hope amidst the decline in wheat yield and an expected fall in <em>kharif </em>rice output this year. &nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify"><strong>It&#39;s about procurement, stupid!</strong></p><p style="text-align:justify">Wheat procurement by the Food Corporation of India (FCI) and the state agencies in the <em>rabi</em> marketing season of 2022-23 fared poorly in comparison to last year. One reason behind this is low wheat production. As per a <a href="/upload/files/USDA%20India%20-%20Extreme%20Temperatures%20Scorch%20Indian%20Wheat%20Production_New%20Delhi_India_IN2022-0045.pdf" title="/upload/files/USDA%20India%20-%20Extreme%20Temperatures%20Scorch%20Indian%20Wheat%20Production_New%20Delhi_India_IN2022-0045.pdf">press release</a> by the <a href="https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/india-india-extreme-temperatures-scorch-indian-wheat-production" title="https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/india-india-extreme-temperatures-scorch-indian-wheat-production">United States Department of Agriculture</a> dated May 25, 2022, &quot;[h]eat stress resulting from an unprecedented spike in temperatures beginning in the mid-March 2022 has had a marked impact&nbsp;India&rsquo;s wheat crop. Yields are 10-15 percent down, driving India&rsquo;s forecasted market year (MY) 2022/23 (April-March) wheat production down from 110 million metric tons (MMT) to 99 MMT. On May 13, 2022, the Indian government announced a ban on wheat exports, citing the sudden spike in global wheat prices and the resulting food security risks to India.&quot;</p><p style="text-align:justify">It should be added here that <a href="/upload/files/Progress%20of%20area%20coverage%20under%20rabi%20crops%20as%20on%2028%20January%202022.pdf" title="/upload/files/Progress%20of%20area%20coverage%20under%20rabi%20crops%20as%20on%2028%20January%202022.pdf">as on January 27, 2022</a>, <a href="/upload/files/Progress%20of%20area%20coverage%20under%20rabi%20crops%20as%20on%2028%20January%202022.pdf" title="/upload/files/Progress%20of%20area%20coverage%20under%20rabi%20crops%20as%20on%2028%20January%202022.pdf">wheat rabi acreage</a> was found to be <a href="/upload/files/Progress%20of%20area%20coverage%20under%20rabi%20crops%20as%20on%2028%20January%202022.pdf" title="/upload/files/Progress%20of%20area%20coverage%20under%20rabi%20crops%20as%20on%2028%20January%202022.pdf">342.37 lakh ha</a>. as compared to <a href="/upload/files/Progress%20of%20area%20coverage%20under%20rabi%20crops%20as%20on%2028%20January%202022.pdf" title="/upload/files/Progress%20of%20area%20coverage%20under%20rabi%20crops%20as%20on%2028%20January%202022.pdf">345.86 lakh ha.</a> in the corresponding period last year. On the contrary, in the <a href="/upload/files/Progress%20of%20area%20coverage%20under%20rabi%20crops%20as%20on%2028%20January%202022.pdf" title="/upload/files/Progress%20of%20area%20coverage%20under%20rabi%20crops%20as%20on%2028%20January%202022.pdf">week ending January 27, 2022</a>, <a href="/upload/files/Progress%20of%20area%20coverage%20under%20rabi%20crops%20as%20on%2028%20January%202022.pdf" title="/upload/files/Progress%20of%20area%20coverage%20under%20rabi%20crops%20as%20on%2028%20January%202022.pdf">mustard and rapeseed rabi acreage</a> stood at <a href="/upload/files/Progress%20of%20area%20coverage%20under%20rabi%20crops%20as%20on%2028%20January%202022.pdf" title="/upload/files/Progress%20of%20area%20coverage%20under%20rabi%20crops%20as%20on%2028%20January%202022.pdf">91.44 lakh ha.</a> against <a href="/upload/files/Progress%20of%20area%20coverage%20under%20rabi%20crops%20as%20on%2028%20January%202022.pdf" title="/upload/files/Progress%20of%20area%20coverage%20under%20rabi%20crops%20as%20on%2028%20January%202022.pdf">73.12 lakh ha.</a> in the corresponding period last year.</p><p style="text-align:justify">The progressive procurement as on June 30, 2022 in the marketing season 2022-23 was 187.89 lakh metric tonnes, whereas the progressive procurement as on July 2, 2021 in the marketing season 2021-22 was 433.21 lakh metric tonnes <em>(i.e., 56.63 percent lower in the rabi marketing season 2022-23 as compared to the previous RMS)</em>. The progressive procurement as on July 3, 2020 in the marketing season 2020-21 stood at 389.38 lakh metric tonnes.</p><p style="text-align:justify"><strong>Table 2: Procurement of wheat at the national level and state levels (in lakh metric tonnes)&nbsp;</strong></p><p style="text-align:justify"><img alt="" src="/upload/images/Table%201%20Procurement%20of%20wheat%20at%20the%20national%20level%20and%20state%20levels%20in%20lakh%20tonnes.png" style="height:359px; width:420px" /></p><p style="text-align:justify"><em><strong>Source: </strong>Minutes of the&nbsp;Crop Weather Watch Group (CWWG) Meeting held on July 1, 2022, please <a href="/upload/files/CWWG%20Minutes%20as%20on%2001072022.pdf" title="/upload/files/CWWG%20Minutes%20as%20on%2001072022.pdf">click here</a> to read more&nbsp;<br />Minutes of the CWWG Meeting held on July 2, 2021, please <a href="/upload/files/CWWG%20Minutes%20as%20on%2002072021.pdf" title="/upload/files/CWWG%20Minutes%20as%20on%2002072021.pdf">click here</a> to read more&nbsp;<br />Minutes of the CWWG Meeting held on July 3, 2020, please <a href="/upload/files/CWWG%20Minutes%20as%20on%2006072020.pdf" title="/upload/files/CWWG%20Minutes%20as%20on%2006072020.pdf">click here</a> to read more&nbsp;</em><br /><strong>---</strong></p><p style="text-align:justify">Table-2 shows that the progressive procurement of wheat in Punjab, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh&nbsp;as on June 30, 2022 was lower than what was procured in the corresponding period in the last two years.&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">But why was wheat procurement so low in March-April, 2022? As said earlier, wheat output was impacted by heat wave coupled with no pre-monsoon-showers in early 2022. Thanks to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, there is a shortage of wheat in <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/USDA%20India%20-%20Extreme%20Temperatures%20Scorch%20Indian%20Wheat%20Production_New%20Delhi_India_IN2022-0045.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/USDA%20India%20-%20Extreme%20Temperatures%20Scorch%20Indian%20Wheat%20Production_New%20Delhi_India_IN2022-0045.pdf">various countries where wheat is imported</a>. As a result, <a href="https://www.fao.org/giews/food-prices/international-prices/detail/en/c/1599378/" title="https://www.fao.org/giews/food-prices/international-prices/detail/en/c/1599378/">international</a> <a href="https://www.fao.org/giews/food-prices/international-prices/detail/en/c/1599378/" title="https://www.fao.org/giews/food-prices/international-prices/detail/en/c/1599378/">wheat prices are higher than before</a>.&nbsp;Speculation in commodity futures markets, has also led to an enormous increase in global wheat prices <em>(please click <a href="https://im4change.org/latest-news-updates/food-price-inflation-could-have-been-avoided-says-new-ipes-food-report.html" title="https://im4change.org/latest-news-updates/food-price-inflation-could-have-been-avoided-says-new-ipes-food-report.html">here</a>, <a href="https://www.lighthousereports.nl/investigation/the-hunger-profiteers/?fbclid=IwAR3cDwZwBuEd0elH8Acu17dLGbRftceKRVIVgSKR_LS_hoh3XnGsihrkhro" title="https://www.lighthousereports.nl/investigation/the-hunger-profiteers/?fbclid=IwAR3cDwZwBuEd0elH8Acu17dLGbRftceKRVIVgSKR_LS_hoh3XnGsihrkhro">here</a>, <a href="https://www.fao.org/3/cb9427en/cb9427en.pdf" title="https://www.fao.org/3/cb9427en/cb9427en.pdf">here</a> and <a href="https://thewire.in/economy/speculation-is-contributing-to-global-food-insecurity-significantly" title="https://thewire.in/economy/speculation-is-contributing-to-global-food-insecurity-significantly">here</a> to access)</em>.&nbsp;Wheat traders who indulge in exporting wheat from India saw an opportunity in this and they bought wheat <em>(despite low domestic production)</em> from <em>mandis </em>situated in wheat producing states such as Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh at prices higher than the <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/Cabinet%20increases%20Minimum%20Support%20Prices%20%28MSP%29%20for%20Rabi%20crops%20for%20marketing%20season%202022-23.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/Cabinet%20increases%20Minimum%20Support%20Prices%20%28MSP%29%20for%20Rabi%20crops%20for%20marketing%20season%202022-23.pdf">minimum support price</a>, which is <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/Cabinet%20increases%20Minimum%20Support%20Prices%20%28MSP%29%20for%20Rabi%20crops%20for%20marketing%20season%202022-23.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/Cabinet%20increases%20Minimum%20Support%20Prices%20%28MSP%29%20for%20Rabi%20crops%20for%20marketing%20season%202022-23.pdf">declared by the Union Government</a>.&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify"><strong>Table 3: State wise Wholesale Prices Monthly Analysis for Wheat in March and April, 2022</strong></p><p style="text-align:justify"><img alt="" src="/upload/images/Table%202%20State%20wise%20Wholesale%20Prices%20Monthly%20Analysis%20for%20Wheat%20April%202022.PNG" style="height:546px; width:831px" /></p><p style="text-align:justify"><em><strong>Source: </strong>Agmarket Portal of Government of India, <a href="https://agmarknet.gov.in/Default.aspx" title="https://agmarknet.gov.in/Default.aspx">https://agmarknet.gov.in/Default.aspx</a>&nbsp;</em><br /><strong>---</strong></p><p style="text-align:justify">The MSP for wheat was fixed at Rs. 2,015/- per quintal during <em>rabi</em> marketing season 2022-23. In Madhya Pradesh, the wholesale price <em>(as reported by APMCs) </em>stood at Rs. 2,192.42 per quintal in March and Rs. 2,151.74 per quintal in April this year. In Punjab, the wholesale price was Rs. 2,028.55 per quintal in March and Rs. 2,015.34 per quintal in April 2022. In Haryana, the wholesale price was Rs. 2,050/- per quintal in March and Rs. 2016.78 per quintal in April this year. In Uttar Pradesh, the wholesale price was Rs. 2,033.62/- per quintal in March and Rs. 2,043.66 per quintal in April 2022.&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">As can be observed from table-3,&nbsp;in the main wheat producing states of India, the wholesale prices in March and April this year were greater than what existed in the corresponding months last year. &nbsp;&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify"><strong>Why is public procurement so important for controlling inflation?</strong></p><p style="text-align:justify">As per the&nbsp;<a href="https://dfpd.gov.in/omss_C.htm" title="https://dfpd.gov.in/omss_C.htm">Department of Food and Public Distribution</a>, the FCI sells surplus stocks of wheat and rice under the Open Market Sale Scheme (Domestic) i.e., OMSS(D),&nbsp;at pre-determined prices through e-auction in the open market from time to time to enhance the supply of food grains, especially wheat during the lean season and thereby moderate the open market prices specially in the deficit regions. Even during the times of high retail inflation, excess of the foodgrains procured/ stocked is sold in the open market for taming price rise. If the procurement is low, as it happened for wheat in the RMS 2022-23, then the Government is unable to release surplus foodgrain stocks.&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">The data on <a href="/upload/files/Foodgrain%20Bulletin%20for%20July%202022.pdf" title="/upload/files/Foodgrain%20Bulletin%20for%20July%202022.pdf">quarterly stock position of food grains</a> <a href="/upload/files/Foodgrain%20Bulletin%20for%20July%202022.pdf" title="/upload/files/Foodgrain%20Bulletin%20for%20July%202022.pdf">in the Central pool</a> reveals that as on July 1, 2022, the stock of wheat was <a href="/upload/files/Central%20pool%20stock%20as%20on%201%20July%202022.PNG" title="/upload/files/Central%20pool%20stock%20as%20on%201%20July%202022.PNG">285.10 lakh tonnes</a> as opposed to <a href="/upload/files/Central%20pool%20stock%20as%20on%201%20July%202022.PNG" title="/upload/files/Central%20pool%20stock%20as%20on%201%20July%202022.PNG">603.56 lakh tonnes</a> in the corresponding period last year.&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">Under the <a href="https://im4change.org/news-alerts-57/it-s-time-to-protect-the-poor-and-the-migrants-from-rising-edible-oil-prices.html" title="https://im4change.org/news-alerts-57/it-s-time-to-protect-the-poor-and-the-migrants-from-rising-edible-oil-prices.html">Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana (PMGKAY)</a>, about 81 crore beneficiaries covered under both categories of National Food Security Act, namely Antyodaya Anna Yojana (AAY) and Priority Householders (PHH), are provided with an <a href="https://im4change.org/news-alerts-57/it-s-time-to-protect-the-poor-and-the-migrants-from-rising-edible-oil-prices.html" title="https://im4change.org/news-alerts-57/it-s-time-to-protect-the-poor-and-the-migrants-from-rising-edible-oil-prices.html">additional quota of free-of-cost foodgrains</a> (rice/ wheat) at a scale of 5 kg per person per month, over and above their regular monthly entitlements. In <a href="https://im4change.org/news-alerts-57/it-s-time-to-protect-the-poor-and-the-migrants-from-rising-edible-oil-prices.html" title="https://im4change.org/news-alerts-57/it-s-time-to-protect-the-poor-and-the-migrants-from-rising-edible-oil-prices.html">some phases of PMGKAY</a>, 1 kg of pulses was also provided per family per month. The PMGKAY has been extended by the Government recently for a <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/PIB%20PMGKAY.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/PIB%20PMGKAY.pdf">period of another six months</a> i.e. April to September, 2022 (Phase-VI) . The PDS <em>(i.e., Public Distribution System) </em>beneficiaries in the states of <a href="https://www.financialexpress.com/economy/up-gujarat-demand-more-wheat-under-pds/2584149/" title="https://www.financialexpress.com/economy/up-gujarat-demand-more-wheat-under-pds/2584149/">Gujarat and Uttar Pradesh</a> were allocated wheat and rice in proportion of <a href="https://www.financialexpress.com/economy/up-gujarat-demand-more-wheat-under-pds/2584149/" title="https://www.financialexpress.com/economy/up-gujarat-demand-more-wheat-under-pds/2584149/">3 kg (wheat) and 2 kg (rice)</a> for each beneficiary per month till May this year. However, after that the Government reversed it to 2 kg (wheat) and 3 kg (rice) chiefly because of the decline in wheat stocks with the FCI.</p><p style="text-align:justify">Apart from the points discussed above, according to <a href="https://www.cenfa.org/windfall-tax-on-corporations-goes-as-5-gst-on-food-items-kicks-in/?fbclid=IwAR0xurOlKDoslWPiGL3SheIptZfAK7_wZasYX5zbGqtcpaLz8W3a4922UYo" title="https://www.cenfa.org/windfall-tax-on-corporations-goes-as-5-gst-on-food-items-kicks-in/?fbclid=IwAR0xurOlKDoslWPiGL3SheIptZfAK7_wZasYX5zbGqtcpaLz8W3a4922UYo">some experts</a>, a 5 percent Goods and Services Tax <a href="/upload/files/FAQ%20GST.pdf" title="/upload/files/FAQ%20GST.pdf">(GST) that was imposed</a>, on July 18, on &#39;<a href="/upload/files/FAQ%20GST.pdf" title="/upload/files/FAQ%20GST.pdf">pre-packaged and labelled</a>&#39;&nbsp;<em>(including unbranded) </em>food items, like wheat, rice, curd, <em>lassi</em>, puffed rice, mutton and fish, will further make it difficult for the Union and State Governments to bring down high retail inflation.</p><p style="text-align:justify"><br /><strong><em>References</em></strong></p><p>Press release: Consumer Price Index on Base 2012=100 for Rural, Urban and Combined for the Month of July 2022, released on August 12, 2022, Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), please <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/CPI%20Press%20Release%20July%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/CPI%20Press%20Release%20July%202022.pdf">click here</a> to access</p><p>Press release: Consumer Price Index on Base 2012=100 for Rural, Urban and Combined for the Month of June 2022, released on July 12, 2022, Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), please <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/CPI%20Press%20Release%20June%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/CPI%20Press%20Release%20June%202022.pdf">click here</a> to access</p><p style="text-align:justify">Minutes of the&nbsp;Crop Weather Watch Group (CWWG) Meeting held on July 1, 2022, please <a href="/upload/files/CWWG%20Minutes%20as%20on%2001072022.pdf" title="/upload/files/CWWG%20Minutes%20as%20on%2001072022.pdf">click here</a> to read more&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">Minutes of the CWWG Meeting held on July 2, 2021, please <a href="/upload/files/CWWG%20Minutes%20as%20on%2002072021.pdf" title="/upload/files/CWWG%20Minutes%20as%20on%2002072021.pdf">click here</a> to read more&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">Minutes of the CWWG Meeting held on July 3, 2020, please <a href="/upload/files/CWWG%20Minutes%20as%20on%2006072020.pdf" title="/upload/files/CWWG%20Minutes%20as%20on%2006072020.pdf">click here</a> to read more&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">Press release: Centre incurs 39,996.184 Crore Provisional Subsidy in Pradhan Mantri Gareeb Kalyan Ann Yojana for 2022-23 upto 12.07.2022, Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food &amp; Public Distribution, Press Information Bureau, released on July 27, 2022, please <a href="/upload/files/PIB%20PMGKAY.pdf" title="/upload/files/PIB%20PMGKAY.pdf">click here</a> to access</p><p style="text-align:justify">Progress of area coverage under <em>kharif</em> crops as on 29 July, 2022, please <a href="/upload/files/As%20on%2029%20July%202022.pdf" title="/upload/files/As%20on%2029%20July%202022.pdf">click here</a> to access&nbsp; &nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">Progress of area coverage under <em>kharif</em> crops as on 15 July, 2022, please <a href="/upload/files/As%20on%2015%20July%202022.pdf" title="/upload/files/As%20on%2015%20July%202022.pdf">click here</a> to access&nbsp; &nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">Progress of area coverage under <em>rabi </em>crops as on 28 January, 2022, please <a href="/upload/files/Progress%20of%20area%20coverage%20under%20rabi%20crops%20as%20on%2028%20January%202022.pdf" title="/upload/files/Progress%20of%20area%20coverage%20under%20rabi%20crops%20as%20on%2028%20January%202022.pdf">click here</a> to access &nbsp;&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">Press release: FAQs on GST applicability on &lsquo;pre-packaged and labelled&rsquo; goods, Ministry of Finance, Press Information Bureau, released on July 18, 2022, please <a href="/upload/files/FAQ%20GST.pdf" title="/upload/files/FAQ%20GST.pdf">click here</a> to access&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">Press release: Index Numbers of Wholesale Price in India for the Month of June, 2022 (Base Year: 2011-12), Ministry of Commerce and Industry, released on July 14, 2022, please <a href="/upload/files/WPI%20released%20on%2014th%20July%202022.pdf" title="/upload/files/WPI%20released%20on%2014th%20July%202022.pdf">click here</a> to access</p><p style="text-align:justify">Press release: Cabinet increases Minimum Support Prices (MSP) for <em>rabi </em>crops for marketing season 2022-23, Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA), Press Information Bureau, 8 September, 2021,&nbsp;please <a href="/upload/files/Cabinet%20increases%20Minimum%20Support%20Prices%20%28MSP%29%20for%20Rabi%20crops%20for%20marketing%20season%202022-23.pdf" title="/upload/files/Cabinet%20increases%20Minimum%20Support%20Prices%20%28MSP%29%20for%20Rabi%20crops%20for%20marketing%20season%202022-23.pdf">click here</a> to access&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">Food grain Bulletin for July 2022, Department of Food and Public Distribution, please <a href="/upload/files/Foodgrain%20Bulletin%20for%20July%202022.pdf" title="/upload/files/Foodgrain%20Bulletin%20for%20July%202022.pdf">click here</a> to access&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">Food Outlook for June 2022: Biannual Report on Global Food Markets, FAO, please <a href="https://www.fao.org/3/cb9427en/cb9427en.pdf" title="https://www.fao.org/3/cb9427en/cb9427en.pdf">click here</a> to access</p><p style="text-align:justify">International prices of wheat and coarse grains declined, while those of rice edged up in June, released on July 12, 2022, Food Price Monitoring and Analysis, FAO, please <a href="https://www.fao.org/giews/food-prices/international-prices/detail/en/c/1599378/" title="https://www.fao.org/giews/food-prices/international-prices/detail/en/c/1599378/">click here</a> to access</p><p style="text-align:justify">India: India - Extreme Temperatures Scorch Indian Wheat Production, &nbsp;Attach&eacute; Report (GAIN), IN2022-0045,&nbsp;United States Department of Agriculture, May 25, 2022, please <a href="https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/india-india-extreme-temperatures-scorch-indian-wheat-production" title="https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/india-india-extreme-temperatures-scorch-indian-wheat-production">click here</a> to access</p><p style="text-align:justify">Press coverage: Food price inflation could have been avoided, says new IPES-Food report, International Panel of Experts on Sustainable Food Systems (IPES-Food), May 6, 2022 please click <a href="https://im4change.org/latest-news-updates/food-price-inflation-could-have-been-avoided-says-new-ipes-food-report.html" title="https://im4change.org/latest-news-updates/food-price-inflation-could-have-been-avoided-says-new-ipes-food-report.html">here</a>, <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/Food%20price%20crisis%20report_press%20release%20by%20IPES%20Food.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/Food%20price%20crisis%20report_press%20release%20by%20IPES%20Food.pdf">here</a> and <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/Another%20Perfect%20Storm.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/Another%20Perfect%20Storm.pdf">here</a> to access</p><p style="text-align:justify">THE HUNGER PROFITEERS, Lighthouse Reports, May 6, 2022, please <a href="https://www.lighthousereports.nl/investigation/the-hunger-profiteers/?fbclid=IwAR3cDwZwBuEd0elH8Acu17dLGbRftceKRVIVgSKR_LS_hoh3XnGsihrkhro" title="https://www.lighthousereports.nl/investigation/the-hunger-profiteers/?fbclid=IwAR3cDwZwBuEd0elH8Acu17dLGbRftceKRVIVgSKR_LS_hoh3XnGsihrkhro">click here</a> to access</p><p style="text-align:justify">News alert: It&rsquo;s time to protect the poor and the migrants from rising edible oil prices, Inclusive Media for Change, published on June 11, 2021, please <a href="https://im4change.org/news-alerts-57/it-s-time-to-protect-the-poor-and-the-migrants-from-rising-edible-oil-prices.html" title="https://im4change.org/news-alerts-57/it-s-time-to-protect-the-poor-and-the-migrants-from-rising-edible-oil-prices.html">click here</a> to access</p><p style="text-align:justify">Central government plans to scrap wheat import duty -R Suryamurthy,&nbsp;The Telegraph, 8 August, 2022, please <a href="https://www.telegraphindia.com/business/central-government-may-scrap-wheat-import-duty/cid/1878846" title="https://www.telegraphindia.com/business/central-government-may-scrap-wheat-import-duty/cid/1878846">click here</a> to access</p><p style="text-align:justify">Lower <em>kharif</em> plantings due to uneven rains a growing concern, says report -Suchet Vir Singh, ThePrint.in, August 7, 2022, please <a href="https://theprint.in/agriculture/lower-kharif-plantings-due-to-uneven-rains-a-growing-concern-says-report/1072127/" title="https://theprint.in/agriculture/lower-kharif-plantings-due-to-uneven-rains-a-growing-concern-says-report/1072127/">click here</a> to access&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">Poor monsoon does not always translate to high inflation, Moneycontrol.com, August 3, 2022, please <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/poor-monsoon-does-not-always-translate-to-high-inflation-8946831.html" title="https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/poor-monsoon-does-not-always-translate-to-high-inflation-8946831.html">click here</a> to access</p><p style="text-align:justify">First wheat, now rice &mdash; hit by bad weather, output could fall by &lsquo;10 mn tonnes&rsquo; this season -Sayantan Bera, ThePrint.in, 27 July, 2022, please <a href="https://theprint.in/india/first-wheat-now-rice-hit-by-bad-weather-output-could-fall-by-10-mn-tonnes-this-season/1056198/" title="https://theprint.in/india/first-wheat-now-rice-hit-by-bad-weather-output-could-fall-by-10-mn-tonnes-this-season/1056198/">click here</a> to access &nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">Windfall tax on corporations goes as 5% GST on food items kicks in -Prasanna Mohanty, July 21, 2022, Cenfa.org, please <a href="https://www.cenfa.org/windfall-tax-on-corporations-goes-as-5-gst-on-food-items-kicks-in/" title="https://www.cenfa.org/windfall-tax-on-corporations-goes-as-5-gst-on-food-items-kicks-in/">click here</a> to access</p><p style="text-align:justify">Does India have enough rice for welfare schemes and ethanol? What the govt is missing -Siraj Hussain, ThePrint.in, July 14, 2022, please <a href="https://theprint.in/opinion/does-india-have-enough-rice-for-welfare-schemes-and-ethanol-what-the-govt-is-missing/1036965/" title="https://theprint.in/opinion/does-india-have-enough-rice-for-welfare-schemes-and-ethanol-what-the-govt-is-missing/1036965/">click here</a> to access&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">UP &amp; Gujarat demand more wheat under PDS -Sandip Das, The Financial Express, July 6, 2022, please <a href="https://www.financialexpress.com/economy/up-gujarat-demand-more-wheat-under-pds/2584149/" title="https://www.financialexpress.com/economy/up-gujarat-demand-more-wheat-under-pds/2584149/">click here</a> to access</p><p style="text-align:justify">&#39;Betting on Hunger&#39;: Market Speculation Is Contributing to Global Food Insecurity -Kabir Agarwal, Thin Lei Win and Margot Gibbs, TheWire.in, 6 May, 2022, please <a href="https://bit.ly/3sLeOXp" title="https://bit.ly/3sLeOXp">click here</a> to access</p><p style="text-align:justify">Heatwave: Crop losses to be large; wheat and vegetables hit the most -Nayan Dave and Sandip Das, Financial Express, May 2, 2022, please <a href="https://www.financialexpress.com/economy/heatwave-crop-losses-to-be-large-wheat-and-vegetables-hit-the-most/2509633/" title="https://www.financialexpress.com/economy/heatwave-crop-losses-to-be-large-wheat-and-vegetables-hit-the-most/2509633/">click here</a> to access &nbsp;<br />&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify"><strong>Image Courtesy: Himanshu Joshi&nbsp;</strong></p>                                                           
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Home हिन्दी

Cereal inflation would be hard to tame amidst low rice acreage

Published on Aug 13, 2022   Modified on Aug 14, 2022

Is India going to face inflation in cereal prices during the rest of the current financial year? Experts differ on this. An analysis by Nomura Global Economics and CEIC finds that a below normal monsoon does not always translate into high retail inflation in food. Similarly, an above normal southwest monsoon does not always bring down the rate of food inflation. However, some agricultural experts (please click here, here and here to access) worry about the slow progress of southwest monsoon rainfall in the rice growing states.  The recent data of the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) shows that the year-on-year (YoY) retail inflation rate for 'cereals and products' has increased from 5.66 percent in June to 6.90 percent in July this year. Table 1: Annual rate of WPI inflation (YoY) in various commodities (%) Note: * = Provisional Source: Press release: Index Numbers of Wholesale Price in India for the Month of June, 2022 (Base Year: 2011-12), Ministry of Commerce and Industry, released on July 14, 2022, please click here to access --- It is visible from table-1 that the annual rate of wholesale price index (WPI) inflation (YoY) in the case of paddy has increased gradually from almost zero percent in February to 2.35 percent in June this year. For cereals, the rate of WPI inflation (YoY) has stayed at around 8 percent in each of the months from March to June. The movement in the WPI of cereals is likely to affect its retail price after a period of lag. The bad news -- rice acreage is low so far According to the Directorate of Economics and Statistics, due to the late arrival of the southwest monsoon in some states, as on July 29, 2022, the area sown under rice was 231.59 lakh hectare (ha.) as compared to 267.05 lakh ha. in the corresponding period last year. The normal area under rice cultivation in the corresponding week (i.e., average of 2017-18 to 2021-22) was 259.20 lakh ha.  As per the Government, the area under rice cultivation is likely to pick up. It must be noted that just a fortnight back i.e., as on July 15, 2022, the area sown under rice was 128.5 lakh ha. as compared to 155.53 lakh ha. in the corresponding period last year. The area under rice cultivation at the national level is the sum of area sown under rice in various states. The state level data is provided by the State Departments of Agriculture.   The good news In the week ending July 28, 2022, the area under coarse cereals cultivation stood at 142.21 lakh ha. against 135.30 lakh ha. during the corresponding period last year. Therefore, a part of the shortfall in cereal output this year is likely to be compensated by an increase in the production of nutri-cereals, which according to experts, are more nutritious than rice or wheat. Unlike rice, they are not water guzzling crops and are also grown by farmers doing rainfed cultivation. One must recall here that due to hot weather like conditions in March and April this year, farmers of Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and parts of Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh witnessed shriveled wheat grains and a decline in the wheat yield.   In the week ending July 27, 2022, the area sown under pulses was found to be 106.18 lakh ha. as against 103.23 lakh ha. during the corresponding period last year. This too brings a glimmer of hope amidst the decline in wheat yield and an expected fall in kharif rice output this year.   It's about procurement, stupid! Wheat procurement by the Food Corporation of India (FCI) and the state agencies in the rabi marketing season of 2022-23 fared poorly in comparison to last year. One reason behind this is low wheat production. As per a press release by the United States Department of Agriculture dated May 25, 2022, "[h]eat stress resulting from an unprecedented spike in temperatures beginning in the mid-March 2022 has had a marked impact India’s wheat crop. Yields are 10-15 percent down, driving India’s forecasted market year (MY) 2022/23 (April-March) wheat production down from 110 million metric tons (MMT) to 99 MMT. On May 13, 2022, the Indian government announced a ban on wheat exports, citing the sudden spike in global wheat prices and the resulting food security risks to India." It should be added here that as on January 27, 2022, wheat rabi acreage was found to be 342.37 lakh ha. as compared to 345.86 lakh ha. in the corresponding period last year. On the contrary, in the week ending January 27, 2022, mustard and rapeseed rabi acreage stood at 91.44 lakh ha. against 73.12 lakh ha. in the corresponding period last year. The progressive procurement as on June 30, 2022 in the marketing season 2022-23 was 187.89 lakh metric tonnes, whereas the progressive procurement as on July 2, 2021 in the marketing season 2021-22 was 433.21 lakh metric tonnes (i.e., 56.63 percent lower in the rabi marketing season 2022-23 as compared to the previous RMS). The progressive procurement as on July 3, 2020 in the marketing season 2020-21 stood at 389.38 lakh metric tonnes. Table 2: Procurement of wheat at the national level and state levels (in lakh metric tonnes)  Source: Minutes of the Crop Weather Watch Group (CWWG) Meeting held on July 1, 2022, please click here to read more  Minutes of the CWWG Meeting held on July 2, 2021, please click here to read more  Minutes of the CWWG Meeting held on July 3, 2020, please click here to read more  --- Table-2 shows that the progressive procurement of wheat in Punjab, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh as on June 30, 2022 was lower than what was procured in the corresponding period in the last two years.  But why was wheat procurement so low in March-April, 2022? As said earlier, wheat output was impacted by heat wave coupled with no pre-monsoon-showers in early 2022. Thanks to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, there is a shortage of wheat in various countries where wheat is imported. As a result, international wheat prices are higher than before. Speculation in commodity futures markets, has also led to an enormous increase in global wheat prices (please click here, here, here and here to access). Wheat traders who indulge in exporting wheat from India saw an opportunity in this and they bought wheat (despite low domestic production) from mandis situated in wheat producing states such as Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh at prices higher than the minimum support price, which is declared by the Union Government.  Table 3: State wise Wholesale Prices Monthly Analysis for Wheat in March and April, 2022 Source: Agmarket Portal of Government of India, https://agmarknet.gov.in/Default.aspx  --- The MSP for wheat was fixed at Rs. 2,015/- per quintal during rabi marketing season 2022-23. In Madhya Pradesh, the wholesale price (as reported by APMCs) stood at Rs. 2,192.42 per quintal in March and Rs. 2,151.74 per quintal in April this year. In Punjab, the wholesale price was Rs. 2,028.55 per quintal in March and Rs. 2,015.34 per quintal in April 2022. In Haryana, the wholesale price was Rs. 2,050/- per quintal in March and Rs. 2016.78 per quintal in April this year. In Uttar Pradesh, the wholesale price was Rs. 2,033.62/- per quintal in March and Rs. 2,043.66 per quintal in April 2022.  As can be observed from table-3, in the main wheat producing states of India, the wholesale prices in March and April this year were greater than what existed in the corresponding months last year.    Why is public procurement so important for controlling inflation? As per the Department of Food and Public Distribution, the FCI sells surplus stocks of wheat and rice under the Open Market Sale Scheme (Domestic) i.e., OMSS(D), at pre-determined prices through e-auction in the open market from time to time to enhance the supply of food grains, especially wheat during the lean season and thereby moderate the open market prices specially in the deficit regions. Even during the times of high retail inflation, excess of the foodgrains procured/ stocked is sold in the open market for taming price rise. If the procurement is low, as it happened for wheat in the RMS 2022-23, then the Government is unable to release surplus foodgrain stocks.  The data on quarterly stock position of food grains in the Central pool reveals that as on July 1, 2022, the stock of wheat was 285.10 lakh tonnes as opposed to 603.56 lakh tonnes in the corresponding period last year.  Under the Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana (PMGKAY), about 81 crore beneficiaries covered under both categories of National Food Security Act, namely Antyodaya Anna Yojana (AAY) and Priority Householders (PHH), are provided with an additional quota of free-of-cost foodgrains (rice/ wheat) at a scale of 5 kg per person per month, over and above their regular monthly entitlements. In some phases of PMGKAY, 1 kg of pulses was also provided per family per month. The PMGKAY has been extended by the Government recently for a period of another six months i.e. April to September, 2022 (Phase-VI) . The PDS (i.e., Public Distribution System) beneficiaries in the states of Gujarat and Uttar Pradesh were allocated wheat and rice in proportion of 3 kg (wheat) and 2 kg (rice) for each beneficiary per month till May this year. However, after that the Government reversed it to 2 kg (wheat) and 3 kg (rice) chiefly because of the decline in wheat stocks with the FCI. Apart from the points discussed above, according to some experts, a 5 percent Goods and Services Tax (GST) that was imposed, on July 18, on 'pre-packaged and labelled' (including unbranded) food items, like wheat, rice, curd, lassi, puffed rice, mutton and fish, will further make it difficult for the Union and State Governments to bring down high retail inflation. References Press release: Consumer Price Index on Base 2012=100 for Rural, Urban and Combined for the Month of July 2022, released on August 12, 2022, Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), please click here to access Press release: Consumer Price Index on Base 2012=100 for Rural, Urban and Combined for the Month of June 2022, released on July 12, 2022, Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), please click here to access Minutes of the Crop Weather Watch Group (CWWG) Meeting held on July 1, 2022, please click here to read more  Minutes of the CWWG Meeting held on July 2, 2021, please click here to read more  Minutes of the CWWG Meeting held on July 3, 2020, please click here to read more  Press release: Centre incurs 39,996.184 Crore Provisional Subsidy in Pradhan Mantri Gareeb Kalyan Ann Yojana for 2022-23 upto 12.07.2022, Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food & Public Distribution, Press Information Bureau, released on July 27, 2022, please click here to access Progress of area coverage under kharif crops as on 29 July, 2022, please click here to access    Progress of area coverage under kharif crops as on 15 July, 2022, please click here to access    Progress of area coverage under rabi crops as on 28 January, 2022, please click here to access    Press release: FAQs on GST applicability on ‘pre-packaged and labelled’ goods, Ministry of Finance, Press Information Bureau, released on July 18, 2022, please click here to access  Press release: Index Numbers of Wholesale Price in India for the Month of June, 2022 (Base Year: 2011-12), Ministry of Commerce and Industry, released on July 14, 2022, please click here to access Press release: Cabinet increases Minimum Support Prices (MSP) for rabi crops for marketing season 2022-23, Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA), Press Information Bureau, 8 September, 2021, please click here to access  Food grain Bulletin for July 2022, Department of Food and Public Distribution, please click here to access  Food Outlook for June 2022: Biannual Report on Global Food Markets, FAO, please click here to access International prices of wheat and coarse grains declined, while those of rice edged up in June, released on July 12, 2022, Food Price Monitoring and Analysis, FAO, please click here to access India: India - Extreme Temperatures Scorch Indian Wheat Production,  Attaché Report (GAIN), IN2022-0045, United States Department of Agriculture, May 25, 2022, please click here to access Press coverage: Food price inflation could have been avoided, says new IPES-Food report, International Panel of Experts on Sustainable Food Systems (IPES-Food), May 6, 2022 please click here, here and here to access THE HUNGER PROFITEERS, Lighthouse Reports, May 6, 2022, please click here to access News alert: It’s time to protect the poor and the migrants from rising edible oil prices, Inclusive Media for Change, published on June 11, 2021, please click here to access Central government plans to scrap wheat import duty -R Suryamurthy, The Telegraph, 8 August, 2022, please click here to access Lower kharif plantings due to uneven rains a growing concern, says report -Suchet Vir Singh, ThePrint.in, August 7, 2022, please click here to access  Poor monsoon does not always translate to high inflation, Moneycontrol.com, August 3, 2022, please click here to access First wheat, now rice — hit by bad weather, output could fall by ‘10 mn tonnes’ this season -Sayantan Bera, ThePrint.in, 27 July, 2022, please click here to access   Windfall tax on corporations goes as 5% GST on food items kicks in -Prasanna Mohanty, July 21, 2022, Cenfa.org, please click here to access Does India have enough rice for welfare schemes and ethanol? What the govt is missing -Siraj Hussain, ThePrint.in, July 14, 2022, please click here to access  UP & Gujarat demand more wheat under PDS -Sandip Das, The Financial Express, July 6, 2022, please click here to access 'Betting on Hunger': Market Speculation Is Contributing to Global Food Insecurity -Kabir Agarwal, Thin Lei Win and Margot Gibbs, TheWire.in, 6 May, 2022, please click here to access Heatwave: Crop losses to be large; wheat and vegetables hit the most -Nayan Dave and Sandip Das, Financial Express, May 2, 2022, please click here to access     Image Courtesy: Himanshu Joshi

Tagged with: Acreage Area under cultivation Cereals Consumer Price Index CPI Food Inflation Food Security GST Monsoon Monsoon rainfall NFSA nutri-cereals Paddy PMGKAY Rainfall Rainfall Deficiency Rainfall deficit retail inflation rice Rice acreage Southwest Monsoon wheat Wholesale Prices WPI

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