-Newsclick.in The falling work participation rate shows that the economy is in deep crisis. Various other economic indicators show this as well. In a stark and chilling confirmation of what the whole country has known for some time, a govt. report shows that Indian workforce (those actually working) declined from about 54% of the working age population in 2011-12 to 51% in 2015-16. While the working age population increased by 2.9% per...
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The case for a rural stimulus -Himanshu
-Livemint.com It is clear that not only has the govt failed to do anything to revive the sagging rural demand, it has also refused to acknowledge the demand problem The fact that the economy is on a downward slide is no longer a matter of debate. It is neither a technical issue nor is it a transient blip which will go away on its own. However, matters are complicated as far as...
More »Mixed Signals from the External Sector -CP Chandrasekhar
-NetworkIdeas.org A slew of numbers released recently point to rather peculiar and contrary trends in India’s balance of payments. Exports have revived but the trade and current account deficits widen, pointing to an excess of foreign exchange expenditure relative to earnings. While the widening current account deficit points to a weakening balance of payments position, foreign exchange reserves are at record levels. The foreign exchange reserve increase is funded largely by capital...
More »Face the decline -Himanshu
-The Indian Express To suggest that demonetisation improved rural wages on the basis of rise in income of some workers is misleading. It halted the recovery of the rural economy, which had begun after the 2016 monsoon. There is now a consensus that the economy has been slowing down and is headed for a hard landing. Many who matter have spoken out and as Yashwant Sinha points out (‘I need to speak...
More »Absolute Decline In Jobs, Says New CDS Study, Drop Sharpest In Last Three Years
-Outlook According to the Labour Bureau’s Employment Unemployment Surveys, total employment in the country shrank by about 0.4 per cent annually between 2013-14 and 2015-16, a number which corresponds to 37.4 lakh people being unemployed. There has been an absolute decline in employment – number of people with jobs – between 2013-14 and 2015-16, possibly for the first time since independence, a new study published in the EPW journal says. Three...
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