-The Indian Express New GDP back series does what the government needs it to — shows that growth during its term has been higher than during the UPA regime. Controversy over the growth performance of the Indian economy took another turn with The Indian Express breaking the story about Niti Aayog not allowing the back series to be announced three years back because it showed a higher growth rate during the...
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The numbers game -Puja Mehra
-The Hindu A structural break can be observed in the GDP back series before and after the year 2011-12 India’s national income statistics are under a cloud. The Central Statistics Office (CSO) has released official revisions of the GDP estimates for the years 2004-05 to 2013-14 in the Manmohan Singh-led government’s tenure. The revisions make the Narendra Modi government’s performance on the economic front appear better than that of its predecessor. In 2015,...
More »A self-goal for India -Santosh Mehrotra
-The Hindu There are substantive reasons for the questions being raised about the new GDP back series Without in any way impugning the integrity of the Central Statistics Office (CSO), most knowledgeable people are asking: if most important indicators of the Indian economy were better in 2004-2014, how is the GDP growth rate higher in estimates just released (7.4% per annum since 2014 and only 6.7% per annum in 2005-2014)? This is...
More »Question mark over CSO's independence -Dennis Rajkumar
-The Hindu Business Line The sharp cut in back-series growth rates for some years in methodologically unsound. It suggests political interference The recent release of the back series of national income has raised a series of controversial reactions. It is understandable for, the gross domestic product (GDP) numbers and the resulting growth estimates provide analytically useful, more powerful than commonly understood, perspectives encompassing not only economic but also social and political spheres. To...
More »Decoding the CSO's backcasting of national income data -KR Srivats
-The Hindu Business Line ‘GDP growth rates for 2004-11 were bound to come down’ New Delhi: “You can slice and dice the data anyway you want, but India’s GDP growth rates between 2004 and 2011 were bound to come down in the backcasting computation effort,” said TCA Anant, former Chief Statistician of India. When the new base year of 2011-12 came out, the Central Statistics Office (CSO) had documented and recognised that the...
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