-Livemint.com The collapse of GDP growth by 23.9% for the Apr to Jun period isn’t a surprise. The economy was under a strict lockdown for most of the time to contain the pandemic. Nevertheless, a little digging throws up interesting trends. Mint takes a look. * What does the GDP figure highlight? One way to measure the GDP is to add private consumption expenditure, government consumption expenditure, investment and net exports (exports minus...
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Fears of contraction, GDP data today will mark Covid effect & phase of recession -Aanchal Magazine
-The Indian Express With economic activity severely disrupted in the first two months of this fiscal, hit hard by a series of localised lockdowns and rising Covid-19 cases, GDP Contraction for the first quarter is being pegged at an average 20 per cent by economists, with the de-growth range between 15.2 per cent and 25.5 per cent. The April-June Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will mark India’s entry into a recessionary phase —...
More »For the first time, farm sector set to grow even as GDP sees a contraction -Harish Damodaran
-The Indian Express The country’s GDP registered an annual decline, at minus 5.2%, last in 1979-80. But that year also recorded negative growth for agricultural GDP, at minus 12.8%. April-June may be the first time that India’s economy would contract year-on-year since the government started coming out with quarterly estimates of GDP from 1996-97. But the data for the quarter, to be released by the National Statistical Office on August 31, could...
More »A crisis without villains -Harish Damodaran
-The Indian Express Current economic contraction is different from previous ones. Governments should borrow and spend India has never experienced negative economic growth since 1979-80, and before that in 1972-73, 1965-66 and 1957-58. All these were drought years with 1957-58 also registering a significant balance of payments (BOP) deterioration and 1979-80 witnessing the second global oil shock following the Iranian Revolution. The real GDP decline of 5-10 per cent that various agencies are...
More »Why India’s trade surplus is a warning signal -Parthapratim Pal and Partha Ray
-The Hindu Business Line Despite the lockdown, India’s trade balance in April and May turned positive. This has been achieved by a sharper decline in imports, pointing towards a contraction of demand in the real economy The RBI has released India’s balance of payments data for the fourth quarter (January-March) of 2019-20. It shows that during this quarter, India has managed a small current account surplus which is around 0.1 per cent...
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