-The Indian Express What needs to be ensured is that the recovery is not hamstrung by damaged household and SME balance sheets because of the extended loss of wages and incomes. This requires extensive income support now. Sometimes we miss the forest for the trees, and at other times the trees themselves become the story. That seems to be the case with India’s 3Q20 GDP print. Some have exulted over headline growth printing...
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RBI upgrades GDP forecast, expects economy to shrink 7.5% this fiscal
-Livemint.com The economy is recuperating faster than anticipated, the RBI chief said The Reserve Bank expects GDP to contract 7.5% this fiscal, said central bank chief Shaktikanta Das while announcing monetary policy committee decision to keep interest rate unchanged. This is an upgrade from the central bank's earlier forecast of 9.5% contraction in its October review. The economy is recuperating faster than anticipated, the RBI chief said, adding that the recovery in...
More »Questionable data, little room for exuberance -R Nagaraj
-The Hindu Using the latest quarterly estimates to point to an economic rebound seems flawed; recovery is likely to remain modest The decline in the quarterly GDP growth rate, by 7.5% during July-September 2020 (FY 2020-21: Q2), compared to a 24% decline in the first quarter has raised expectations of a sharp economic recovery after the novel coronavirus pandemic and the national lockdown. But is such optimism justified? A tracker India’s GDP at current...
More »Why Recovery at Cost of Worker Immiserisation Won’t Last Long -Prabhat Patnaik
-Newsclick.in GDP recovery from the lockdown-induced abyss is accompanied by significant labour displacement and squeeze on wages, which will impact aggregate demand. Ministers from Narendra Modi to Nirmala Sitharaman are talking about a recovery of the Indian economy from the pandemic-induced crisis. Even the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), which estimated the second quarter GDP growth to have been -8.6%, has seen signs of recovery in October. Of course, there had to be...
More »Is the rural economy driving India’s recovery? -Richard Mahapatra
-Down to Earth Government spending has led to demand growth in rural areas; but what if it comes down? Rural India has emerged as the saviour of the shattered Indian economy. From Ratan Tata to the governor of the Reserve Bank of India, everybody is betting on the consumption demand growth in rural areas to boost the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic-stricken economy. There is a lot of talk on the ‘green shoots’...
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