-Frontline.in Recently released data from the CSO, which claimed that demonetisation had had no significant impact on the performance of the economy, raise more questions than provide answers. Official data released by the Central Statistical Organisation (CSO) on the last day of February, which claimed that the national gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 7 per cent in the October-December period, the third quarter of 2016-17, came as a morale booster...
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Demonetisation and the GDP: knock-out punch or mild tap? -Aarati Krishnan
-The Hindu The CSO has been consistent with its methods, allowing little room for suspicion of window dressing. Did demonetisation deal a knock-out punch to the Indian economy? Or was it just a mild tap from which it is already recovering? This debate should have been settled with the latest second advance estimates from the Central Statistics Office (CSO) which peg FY17 GDP growth at 7.1%. But commentators who believe that the economy...
More »Harvardian estimates not wrong; cash ban cut Rs 1.2 lakh crore from nominal GDP -Dhananjay Sinha
-The Economic Times The enigma around the GDP growth numbers has compounded, as it understated the impact of demonetisation. Eliminating the dissonance created by large revisions, nominal GDP growth in December quarter may have been impacted by 240 bp and 320 bp on a year-on-year and sequential basis, respectively. The 7 per cent real GDP growth print for Q3FY17 released by the CSO on Tuesday gives an impression that the demonetisation shock...
More »How's the economy really doing? -TCA Sharad Raghavan
-The Hindu There are multiple ways to arrive at an answer, but each metric points in a different direction. If someone asks you how the Indian economy is doing, how would you answer? Would you say that the Gross Domestic Product and Gross Value Added (GVA) are both above 7 per cent, and so the economy is growing strongly? Or would you say that the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) has contracted for two straight...
More »Priyanka Kishore, Lead Asia Economist at Oxford Economics, speaks to Sarika Malhotra (Business Today)
-Business Today Priyanka Kishore, Lead Asia Economist at Oxford Economics tells Business Today why India's GDP may well not be 7 per cent. Excerpts from an interview. * What were the reasons that prompted you to relook at India's growth numbers? India announced a revamped GDP series in early 2015, based on the requirements of the 2008 System of National Accounts (SNA). The new method made substantial changes to both the estimation and...
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