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Upward GDP revisions for note ban, GST years surprising, says ex-CEA -Asit Ranjan Mishra

-Livemint.com * GDP estimates are based on accepted methodologies, says government * Subramanian made the claims in his latest working paper published on the Harvard University website New Delhi: India’s statistics ministry likely underestimated the impact of demonetization and the rollout of the goods and services tax (GST) on economic activity, leading to an overestimation of gross domestic product (GDP) figures, the finance ministry’s former chief economic adviser, Arvind Subramanian, has said. On 31...

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7 to 4.5%: Ex-CEA cuts GDP estimate between 2011-12 and 2016-17

-The Indian Express While official estimates have pegged average annual growth at around 7 per cent during this period, actual GDP growth is likely to have been lower, at around 4.5 per cent, says Subramanian New Delhi: In the midst of a raging controversy over India’s economic growth under the new GDP series, former Chief Economic Adviser Arvind Subramanian has concluded that the country’s growth has been overestimated by around 2.5...

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Economic growth may have slipped below 7% in FY19, lowest in 5 years: ET Poll - Kirtika Suneja

-The Economic Times January-March quarter growth may have slumped to 6-6.3% against 6.6% expansion in the preceding one. NEW DELHI: India’s economic growth is likely to have slipped below 7% in FY19, the lowest in the past five years, because of a disappointing fourth quarter. That could prompt a further cut in interest rates by the central bank and renewed efforts by the incoming government to drum up demand and private investment,...

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To create jobs, an industrial policy focused on labour-intensive industries is key -Santosh Mehrotra

-Hindustan Times These sectors deserve consistent support over time to compete internationally since India is lagging behind Manufacturing contributed in 2017 only about 16% to India’s GDP, stagnating since economic reforms began in 1991. By contrast, in east and south-east Asia, the industry share has exceeded 30-40% while manufacturing is 20-30%. India’s manufacturing share of GDP has not moved up at all, though between 2004-05 and 2011-12 manufacturing employment growth was...

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Why an industrial policy is crucial -Santosh Mehrotra

-The Hindu No major country has managed to reduce poverty or sustain economic growth without a robust manufacturing sector The contribution of manufacturing to GDP in 2017 was only about 16%, a stagnation since the economic reforms began in 1991. The contrast with the major Asian economies is significant. For example, Malaysia roughly tripled its share of manufacturing in GDP to 24%, while Thailand’s share increased from 13% to 33% (1960-2014). In...

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