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Why this is going to be a tough year for economic policymaking -Montek Singh Ahluwalia

-Livemint.com The RBI will face the difficult choice of either intervening strongly to ‘manage volatility’ at the risk of losing reserves or letting the currency ‘find its own level’. India’s ministry of finance struck an upbeat note in its August economic review when it asserted growth is “robust" and inflation is “under control". It then quite rightly balanced the optimism with the qualification “there is no room for complacency". Truth be told,...

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Is Food Inflation in India Driven by Demand or Supply? -Deepanshu Mohan, and others

-TheWire.in While domestic food price inflation is high globally, consumer food price inflation in India has increased from 0.68% to 8.38% between September 2021 and April 2022. Inflation has continued to peak at an all-time high in all economies around the world, with food and energy prices skyrocketing to unprecedented levels. Even industrially developed nations like the US, Canada, and the Eurozone, which experienced decades-long of stable price levels have struggles to...

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Joblessness below pre-COVID levels: Finance Ministry

-The Hindu Q1 surge in private consumption not just a function of pent-up demand but also rising employment levels, it says Demand for work under the national rural employment guarantee scheme hit a two-year low in August, signalling that the recovering economy is creating more jobs in rural as well as urban India, the Union Finance Ministry said on Saturday.    India’s inflation, the Ministry said, is “in control” and expected to moderate...

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Cereal inflation would be hard to tame amidst low rice acreage

Is India going to face inflation in cereal prices during the rest of the current financial year? Experts differ on this. An analysis by Nomura Global Economics and CEIC finds that a below normal monsoon does not always translate into high retail inflation in food. Similarly, an above normal southwest monsoon does not always bring down the rate of food inflation. However, some agricultural experts (please click here, here and...

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A ban on wheat exports was the country’s least damaging option -Indira Rajaraman

-Livemint.com India’s wheat export proscription was the first signal of awareness that moves on many fronts are needed for inflation control The Indian export ban on wheat in mid-May drew much negative attention. For the record, it is a ban on private sector wheat exports, and leaves open government-to-government contracts. The widespread criticism of the ban was misplaced in my opinion. Private wheat traders had responded exuberantly to the global demand for wheat...

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