-The Indian Express Estimates are not perfect, but the process is revised and fine-tuned. Former Chief Economic Adviser Arvind Subramanian’s recent paper claims that the Indian GDP growth may have been overestimated by 2.5 per cent per annum between the period 2011-12 and 2016-17. A note by Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council (PMEAC) rejects the methodology, arguments and conclusions of Subramanian’s paper. A study done at our institute by Ashima Goyal...
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India's GDP Debate: What Explains Reduced Growth Rates Under the UPA? -R Nagaraj
-TheWire.in How correct was it for the Central Statistics Office to have selectively used contested methods for preparing the back series data? The spotlight is back on India’s growth rates, three years after the gross domestic product (GDP) data using the 2011-12 base year was released. Before trying to delve into the controversy surrounding the back-series data – which saw GDP growth from 2006-2012 reduce significantly – it is important to understand how...
More »Why factory output figures are suspect -R Nagaraj
-The Hindu Business Line The MCA database, which underpins the jump in factory GDP, is unconvincing. The ASI method was set aside for wrong reasons In early 2015, the Central Statistical Office (CSO) introduced a new series of National Accounts Statistics (NAS) with 2011-12 as the base year, replacing the earlier series with the base year 2004-05. It is the CSO's routine job to make such revisions, roughly once in a decade,...
More »How the data sets stack up -C Rangarajan & S Mahendra Dev
-The Hindu Why measuring inequality is not the same as measuring changes in the level of poverty in India In recent years, there has been a lot of discussion on increasing inequality within several countries of the world, including India, particularly after the publication of Thomas Piketty’s book on inequality. It is true that rising inequality has adverse economic and social consequences. The Gini coefficient or other measures of inequality are being...
More »A job crisis, in figures -Radhicka Kapoor
-The Indian Express Multiple data sets confirm sluggish pace of employment creation. Paucity of data can no longer be an excuse for the lack of debate. Jobs are an integral part of India’s political narrative today. This is unsurprising because the NDA came to power on the promise of creating a large number of jobs for India’s rapidly rising work force. However, much of the debate on employment performance over the last...
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