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Realistic analysis shows that the Indian economy has simply taken little steps in Q1 instead of a quantum leap

There is euphoria abound about India's growth performance during the first quarter of the current fiscal. As compared to the corresponding period last year, the year-on-year (y-o-y) GDP growth in the first quarter (Q1) of 2022-23 is down. However, one should take into account the fact that the high growth performance of the real GDP in Q1 of 2021-22 was due to the low base in the corresponding period of...

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What’s falling: Poverty or quality of analysis? -Santosh Mehrotra

-Deccan Herald Dodgy data Surjit Bhalla, India’s Executive Director (IMF), Arvind Virmani, former Chief Economic Advisor under UPA, and K Bhasin, in an IMF Working Paper, state that to estimate poverty, when no survey has been undertaken, is to take the most recent survey (2011-12) data and update individual consumption (or personal) income by the corresponding growth rate observed in the national accounts (NAS). However, there are problems with estimating poverty based on...

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Statistics of poverty suffer from the country’s poverty of statistics -Himanshu

-Livemint.com India’s lack of official data for estimates could impair policy formulation and thus hurt the economy Two different sets of poverty estimates for India were released recently. One of the papers was authored by Surjit Bhalla, Karan Bhasin, and Arvind Virmani and the second by Sutirtha Roy and Roy Weide, both affiliated to the World Bank. Both presented estimates for roughly the same period, after 2011-12, but ended up at starkly...

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Poor Economics: Has India’s poverty really fallen? -Santosh Mehrotra & Jajati Parida

-Financial Express Dataset and methodological weaknesses cast doubt on recent poverty estimates that claim drastic reduction Bhalla, Bhasin and Virmani in a working paper (IMF), claimed India’s poverty, per a $1.9 per person per day poverty line (at PPP), was 0.9% of the population in 2020. Thanks to government transfer of free rations of 5 kg per person month, it fell to 0.8% (from 0.9% in 2019). Roy and de Velt, for...

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