-The Hindu A structural break can be observed in the GDP back series before and after the year 2011-12 India’s national income statistics are under a cloud. The Central Statistics Office (CSO) has released official revisions of the GDP estimates for the years 2004-05 to 2013-14 in the Manmohan Singh-led government’s tenure. The revisions make the Narendra Modi government’s performance on the economic front appear better than that of its predecessor. In 2015,...
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Decoding the CSO's backcasting of national income data -KR Srivats
-The Hindu Business Line ‘GDP growth rates for 2004-11 were bound to come down’ New Delhi: “You can slice and dice the data anyway you want, but India’s GDP growth rates between 2004 and 2011 were bound to come down in the backcasting computation effort,” said TCA Anant, former Chief Statistician of India. When the new base year of 2011-12 came out, the Central Statistics Office (CSO) had documented and recognised that the...
More »Question mark over CSO's independence -Dennis Rajkumar
-The Hindu Business Line The sharp cut in back-series growth rates for some years in methodologically unsound. It suggests political interference The recent release of the back series of national income has raised a series of controversial reactions. It is understandable for, the gross domestic product (GDP) numbers and the resulting growth estimates provide analytically useful, more powerful than commonly understood, perspectives encompassing not only economic but also social and political spheres. To...
More »Three years ago, key statistics panel revised UPA growth up, Niti Aayog rejected it -P Vaidyanathan Iyer
-The Indian Express Then Chief Statistician T C A Anant confirmed that the release of data was withheld. “Niti Aayog had issues with a particular proxy we used for corporate sector growth estimates,” Anant told The Indian Express. In what adds a fresh twist to the controversy over the downward revision of UPA growth data, it is now learnt that almost three years ago, the Central Statistics Office (CSO), in the...
More »Back series data trim GDP growth rates for FY05-12 -KR Srivats
-The Hindu Business Line But the economy size gets a bump-up under new base year New Delhi: It’s official now. The government-initiated recalibration of the economy for the years 2004-05 to 2011-12, based on the new base year 2011-12, paints a somewhat less cheerful picture on the GDP growth front for these years. However, the new methodology of changed base year (2011-12) with the latest data sources and improved coverage has bumped up...
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