High and volatile agricultural commodity prices are likely to prevail for the rest of this year and into 2012 according to the latest analysis published today in FAO's biannual Food Outlook. The report cites a sharp rundown on inventories and only modest overall production increases for the majority of crops as reasons for continuing strong prices. The next few months will be critical in determining how the major crops will fare this...

-Reuters   World cereals output is expected to rise to a new record in 2011 due to more planting and improved yields but low stocks are set to keep prices high, the United Nations’ food agency said. Global cereals output is expected to rise 3.5% to 2.315 billion tonne this year, recovering after a 1% fall in 2010, the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) said on Tuesday in its first estimate...

Indian farmers have much to celebrate this year with a bumper wheat harvest. As predicted by the ministry of agriculture, wheat farmers have begun to harvest what is shaping up to be a record crop, projected at 84.27 million tonnes. We are growing more wheat than ever before. The earlier record of 80.8 million tonnes of wheat production was achieved in 2009-10. Estimates show that foodgrain production including wheat, rice, pulses...

-The Economic Times   As the government twiddles its thumbs on allowing export of surplus grains , wheat prices have plunged below not just the government's promised minimum support price but also the price of maize. This has prompted poultry feed manufacturers to substitute wheat for maize in their produce. So chicken will eat wheat this year. As prices stay depressed, farmers will switch from wheat to some other crop or just simply...

India has large wheat stocks already yet policy dictates they increase. In states like Punjab, Haryana, UP and Gujarat prices have fallen and are below the minimum support prices. This is a policy-induced outcome. A safe game in grains is fine, given the global politics of grain trade and the great ability of Indian politics to subsidise the wrong man in the vote bank — but how safe is safe? The...