-The Economic Times Government’s forced mega merger of public sector banks could scupper economic recovery. I am not saying we maintain a Panglossian countenance, that we smile away every difficulty. But, in any real economy, the mood is very important,’ observed Reserve Bank of India governor Shaktikanta Das, speaking at an event in Mumbai late August. Sound advice. Sentiment matters. Irrational despondency can be as damaging for the economy as ‘irrational exuberance’. But...
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Hardly the brick and mortar of a revival -Jayati Ghosh
-The Hindu The transfer of the RBI’s surplus is only a stopgap measure which will not address the key problem of a lack of demand There is no longer any room for doubt on the parlous state of the Indian economy. The automobile industry, seen as a bellwether of activity in the post-liberalisation years, is in crisis, as automakers, parts manufacturers and dealers have laid off about 350,000 workers since April this...
More »Budget 2019 Sorely Lacks a Coherent Vision for Long-Term Growth -MK Venu
-TheWire.in While Nirmala Sitharaman's maiden budget hit all the right political notes, its fiscal math is far fuzzier. The first budget of the Narendra Modi government 2.0 is very high on political rhetoric around empowering the poorest in ‘New India’, but does not have a clear road map of how a fully-funded welfare state will be sustained without a robust revival in growth, based on the twin engines of investment and consumption...
More »Veil on job data spurs poser: How deep is the crisis? -Basant Kumar Mohanty
-The Telegraph Demand for work under the MGNREGA was at its highest in the 2018-19 fiscal The job crisis has deepened and become more commonplace during the last five years, according to officials familiar with employment data. Consider this: Demand for work under the national job scheme, Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA), was at its highest in the 2018-19 fiscal. Started in 2006 to provide a fallback employment source to...
More »Deepening slowdown: on the Indian economy
-The Hindu Can the RBI’s reduction in borrowing costs help check the demand slowdown? India’s economy is inarguably slowing, and the latest estimates from the Central Statistics Office disconcertingly point to a deepening slowdown. GDP growth is projected to have eased to 6.6% in the October-December period. With the CSO now forecasting the full-year expansion at 7%, fiscal fourth-quarter growth is implicitly pegged at an even slower 6.5%. At that level, growth...
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