-Livemint.com It is not just the low inflation reported in June which confirms a declining demand but also the macro fundamentals of the economy which belie any optimism of 7%-plus growth The second volume of the Economic Survey was presented on the last day of the monsoon session of Parliament on 11 August, preventing Parliament from holding a discussion on the state of the economy as outlined by the report. The second instalment,...
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That sinking feeling -MV Rajeev Gowda & Salman Soz
-The Hindu In contrast to its pronouncements, the government’s own data suggest the economy is in a deep hole Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in his Independence Day address, spoke triumphantly about how demonetisation drove ?3 lakh crore of unaccounted money into the banking system. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is still counting old notes, and unaccounted money cases are ongoing. Thus, this number is at best a guesstimate, and cannot be...
More »Retail inflation dips to record low in June, IIP slows in May
-The Times of India NEW DELHI: Retail inflation dipped to a record low in June on the back of sliding food prices, while industrial output growth slowed in May as manufacturing remained sluggish, mounting pressure on the RBI to cut interest rates when it reviews monetary policy on August 2. Data released by the Central Statistics Office (CSO) on Wednesday showed retail inflation, as measured by the consumer price index (CPI), rose...
More »Delayed impact
-The Hindu Business Line Recent macro data hint at delayed second-order impacts from note ban Did the Indian economy suffer only temporary hiccups from the abrupt withdrawal of high-value currency notes in November 2016? Until recently, the Government and quite a few commentators were convinced that it did. Macro-economic data releases such as the first advance GDP estimates (which retained real gross value added, or GVA, growth at 7 per cent for...
More »Note ban effect: GDP growth enters slow lane in Q4 at 6.1% -Ishan Bakshi & Indivjal Dhasmana
-Business Standard GVA growth at 2-year low of 5.6%; Farming only bright spot India’s economic growth fell to 6.1 per cent in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2016-17 (FY17), primarily because of demonetisation adversely affecting economic activity. This was at least a four-quarter low. The sectors worst affected were construction and financial services. Without indirect taxes, growth figures would be more dismal. Gross value added (GVA), the difference between gross domestic product...
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