-The Telegraph The economy remains vulnerable to headwinds The shortfall in economic growth in the April-June quarter against rosier predictions of most, including the central bank, came as a surprise.Few anticipated the gap between expected and actual performance would be as much (2.5-3 percentage points). It has prompted a tide of downward revisions for the whole year; these follow a previous round, two months ago, due to inflation, higher interest rates, and...
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Realistic analysis shows that the Indian economy has simply taken little steps in Q1 instead of a quantum leap
There is euphoria abound about India's growth performance during the first quarter of the current fiscal. As compared to the corresponding period last year, the year-on-year (y-o-y) GDP growth in the first quarter (Q1) of 2022-23 is down. However, one should take into account the fact that the high growth performance of the real GDP in Q1 of 2021-22 was due to the low base in the corresponding period of...
More »Growth compulsions, fiscal arithmetic -C Rangarajan and DK Srivastava
-The Hindu The economic situation warrants enhanced government expenditure; the policy challenge is to minimise the growth fall India’s growth in the first quarter of 2020-21 at (-) 23.9% showed one of the highest contractions globally. Global growth prospects for 2020 have been projected by a number of multilateral institutions and rating agencies including that for India. The 2020-21 real GDP growth for India is forecast in the range of (-) 5.8%...
More »Recent reports predict gloomy days ahead for the overall economy
Most reports and studies by official agencies, international think tanks and private entities indicate the cataclysmic impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the economy and society. They anticipate that lockdowns imposed by various countries across the globe to reduce the exponential diffusion of COVID-19 (i.e. for flattening the curve by social distancing and quarantines) would adversely affect economic growth and disrupt supply chains in most sectors, on top of causing...
More »MGNREGA allocation is way off the mark to uplift the rural economy & address economic downturn, say Right to Work activists
The Union Budget 2020-21, which was presented by the Finance Minister Smt. Nirmala Sitharaman on 1st February, 2020 has failed to impress civil society activists and farmers' rights groups (click here and here). Through their press releases and notes, members of CSOs were demanding as well as suggesting the Union Government for hiking the budgetary allocation for schemes like Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA) and Pradhan Mantri...
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