-TheWire.in In India’s growth trajectory, for over a decade, domestic private investment levels have remained consistently low and so has (domestic) manufacturing growth. As per recent quarterly estimates, India’s growth rate slowed to 6.3% in the September quarter of 2022-23. There is evidence of a notable contraction in output of manufacturing that’s pulling down growth. This author has previously argued that quarterly growth estimates may not reveal the real state of an economy....
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Number Theory: The state of the Indian economy in four charts -Roshan Kishore
-Hindustan Times What do the latest numbers, analyst forecasts, and high-frequency data tell us about the state of Indian economy? The National Statistical Office (NSO) released GDP numbers for the quarter ending September 2022 on November 30. GDP growth for the second quarter is 6.3%, which is exactly what the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the RBI projected in its September resolution. What do the latest numbers, analyst forecasts, and high-frequency data...
More »Realistic analysis shows that the Indian economy has simply taken little steps in Q1 instead of a quantum leap
There is euphoria abound about India's growth performance during the first quarter of the current fiscal. As compared to the corresponding period last year, the year-on-year (y-o-y) GDP growth in the first quarter (Q1) of 2022-23 is down. However, one should take into account the fact that the high growth performance of the real GDP in Q1 of 2021-22 was due to the low base in the corresponding period of...
More »Whose GDP is it anyway? -Praveen Chakravarty
-The Hindu It is time for political leaders to clamour for an overhaul of India’s economic performance measurement framework In a few weeks, a quarterly ritual will play out in India. The Government will release the first quarter’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth numbers with some chest-thumping about how India is among the fastest-growing economies in the world. Opposition parties will hold press conferences on the same day to counter such bombast...
More »Are we overestimating the fiscal boost to the economy? -Roshan Kishore
-Hindustan Times Gross domestic product (GDP) statistics are released at both current and constant prices. The latter discounts inflation (more on this later) from the base year of the current GDP series. Let’s assume it takes a tonne of steel to build half a kilometre of road. Let’s also assume steel costs ₹1,000 a tonne and there is a tax of 10% on steel. Now, if steel prices doubled in a year,...
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