-The Telegraph India’s economic recovery is uneven India’s ranking as one of the world’s fastest growing economies — a bright spot in a troubled and slowing world economy — routinely figures in the public discourse. It was upheld even as oil prices zoomed and inflation surged early this year. It did not waver when growth forecasts were lowered some six months ago. It wasn’t rattled when growth underperformed in the April-June quarter....
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Hard realities -Renu Kohli
-The Telegraph The economy remains vulnerable to headwinds The shortfall in economic growth in the April-June quarter against rosier predictions of most, including the central bank, came as a surprise.Few anticipated the gap between expected and actual performance would be as much (2.5-3 percentage points). It has prompted a tide of downward revisions for the whole year; these follow a previous round, two months ago, due to inflation, higher interest rates, and...
More »Binary equation -Renu Kohli
-The Telegraph Can stability be achieved by sacrificing growth? Has the macroeconomic configuration turned binary? With inflation occupying centre stage, the choice seems fast splitting between stability and growth. Can the former be secured without compromising the latter? That’s the worry with policies swinging to address price, exchange rate and external stability. This is not to say that growth has receded to secondary position. But as interest rates harden and fiscal policy...
More »India roasted -Renu Kohli
-The Telegraph The economic impact of heatwaves is steep India is feeling the heat in ways other than the rising prices. The ongoing heatwave, in which temperatures have shot above 45 degree Celsius in many parts of northwest and central India, highlights the rising climate risks and their attendant costs. Heatwaves, beginning earlier than in the past, are part of a changing climate whose defining features, in addition to the gradual rise...
More »Strange optimism -Renu Kohli
-The Telegraph The RBI’s inflation analysis goes against the grain The budget for 2022-23 was saluted for its growth push despite the record gap in revenues and expenditures: Rs 15 trillion would be borrowed to fill these. This, however, did not hold back the stock market from touching the sky, nor commentary greeting the raised capex to draw in private investments, create jobs, and support demand. Days later, the euphoria subsided as...
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