Deprecated (16384): The ArrayAccess methods will be removed in 4.0.0.Use getParam(), getData() and getQuery() instead. - /home/brlfuser/public_html/src/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line: 150
 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php. [CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311]
Code Context


        trigger_error($message, E_USER_DEPRECATED);

    }
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 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php.'
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deprecationWarning - CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311
Cake\Http\ServerRequest::offsetGet() - CORE/src/Http/ServerRequest.php, line 2421
App\Controller\ArtileDetailController::index() - APP/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line 150
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Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
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Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Http\Runner::run() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 51
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Deprecated (16384): The ArrayAccess methods will be removed in 4.0.0.Use getParam(), getData() and getQuery() instead. - /home/brlfuser/public_html/src/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line: 151
 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php. [CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311]
Code Context


        trigger_error($message, E_USER_DEPRECATED);

    }
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 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php.'
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deprecationWarning - CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311
Cake\Http\ServerRequest::offsetGet() - CORE/src/Http/ServerRequest.php, line 2421
App\Controller\ArtileDetailController::index() - APP/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line 151
Cake\Controller\Controller::invokeAction() - CORE/src/Controller/Controller.php, line 610
Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::_invoke() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 120
Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::dispatch() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 94
Cake\Http\BaseApplication::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/BaseApplication.php, line 235
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Routing\Middleware\RoutingMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Routing/Middleware/RoutingMiddleware.php, line 162
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Routing\Middleware\AssetMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Routing/Middleware/AssetMiddleware.php, line 97
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Error\Middleware\ErrorHandlerMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Error/Middleware/ErrorHandlerMiddleware.php, line 96
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Http\Runner::run() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 51
Cake\Http\Server::run() - CORE/src/Http/Server.php, line 98

Warning (512): Unable to emit headers. Headers sent in file=/home/brlfuser/public_html/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/Error/Debugger.php line=853 [CORE/src/Http/ResponseEmitter.php, line 48]
Code Context
            if (Configure::read('debug')) {

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        NEWS ALERTS | What is in store for India’s imports?    </title>
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    <h1 class="cat-box-title">What is in store for India’s imports?</h1>
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                            <p style="text-align:justify">There is some respite expected for India in terms of prices of imported commodities. This may ease the <a href="https://rbi.org.in/Scripts/PublicationsView.aspx?id=21355" title="https://rbi.org.in/Scripts/PublicationsView.aspx?id=21355">depletion of its foreign exchange</a> <a href="https://rbi.org.in/Scripts/PublicationsView.aspx?id=21355" title="https://rbi.org.in/Scripts/PublicationsView.aspx?id=21355">reserves</a>.&nbsp;The country has faced a widening of its merchandise trade deficit from <a href="/upload/files/Press-Release%20Ministry%20of%20Commerce%20October-2022.pdf" title="/upload/files/Press-Release%20Ministry%20of%20Commerce%20October-2022.pdf">US$ -17.91 billion</a> to <a href="/upload/files/Press-Release%20Ministry%20of%20Commerce%20October-2022.pdf" title="/upload/files/Press-Release%20Ministry%20of%20Commerce%20October-2022.pdf">US$ -26.91 billion</a> between October 2021 and October 2022.&nbsp;The <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets" title="https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets">commodity price data</a> <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets" title="https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets">provided by the World Bank</a> in December 2022 <em>(termed as The Pink Sheet) </em>shows that energy prices plummeted by about -4.5 percent in November on a month-on-month <em>(m-o-m)</em> basis, thanks to a decline in the prices of coal <em>(-12.2 percent)</em>, and natural gas in Europe <em>(-8.5 percent)</em>.&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">On top of that, fertilizer prices crashed&nbsp;by -5.8 percent m-o-m in November this year. Raw material prices gained m-o-m in November by 2.1 percent, whereas metal prices saw a rise of around 5 percent thanks to nickel <em>(16 percent)</em>, tin <em>(9.6 percent),</em> and copper <em>(5.2 percent)</em>.</p><p style="text-align:justify"><strong>Energy prices</strong></p><p style="text-align:justify">The World Bank&rsquo;s monthly average energy price index for low- and middle-income countries <em>(2010=100)</em> had declined from <a href="https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/5d903e848db1d1b83e0ec8f744e55570-0350012021/related/CMO-Historical-Data-Monthly.xlsx" title="https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/5d903e848db1d1b83e0ec8f744e55570-0350012021/related/CMO-Historical-Data-Monthly.xlsx">158.2 to 146.2</a> between <a href="https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/5d903e848db1d1b83e0ec8f744e55570-0350012021/related/CMO-Historical-Data-Monthly.xlsx" title="https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/5d903e848db1d1b83e0ec8f744e55570-0350012021/related/CMO-Historical-Data-Monthly.xlsx">September and October</a> this year, and further went down to <a href="https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/5d903e848db1d1b83e0ec8f744e55570-0350012021/related/CMO-Historical-Data-Monthly.xlsx" title="https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/5d903e848db1d1b83e0ec8f744e55570-0350012021/related/CMO-Historical-Data-Monthly.xlsx">139.6 in November</a>.</p><p style="text-align:justify"><strong>Table 1: World Bank commodity price indices for low- and middle-income countries (2010=100)</strong></p><p style="text-align:justify"><img alt="" src="/upload/images/Table%201%20World%20Bank%20commodity%20price%20indices%20for%20low%20and%20middle%20income%20countries%202010%20equals%20to%20100.PNG" style="height:386px; width:1000px" /></p><p style="text-align:justify"><em><strong>Source: </strong>World Bank Commodities Price Data, The Pink Sheet, released on December 2, 2022, please <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/World%20Bank%20Commodities%20Price%20Data%20released%20on%202%20December%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/World%20Bank%20Commodities%20Price%20Data%20released%20on%202%20December%202022.pdf">click here</a> to access&nbsp;</em><br /><strong>---</strong></p><p style="text-align:justify">The <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/World%20Bank%20Commodities%20Price%20Data%20released%20on%202%20December%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/World%20Bank%20Commodities%20Price%20Data%20released%20on%202%20December%202022.pdf">World Bank&#39;s quarterly average</a> <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/World%20Bank%20Commodities%20Price%20Data%20released%20on%202%20December%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/World%20Bank%20Commodities%20Price%20Data%20released%20on%202%20December%202022.pdf">energy price index</a> surged gradually over the quarters from 100.6 in July-September 2021 to 167.6 in July-September this year. On a year-on-year <em>(y-o-y) </em>basis, therefore, the quarterly average energy price index for low- and middle-income countries went up by 66.6 percent in July-September 2022 over the corresponding period last year. Please see table-1.&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify"><strong>Table 2: International prices of various commodities as per the World Bank</strong>&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify"><img alt="" src="/upload/images/Table%202%20International%20Prices%20of%20various%20commodities%20as%20per%20the%20WB.PNG" style="height:596px; width:992px" /></p><p style="text-align:justify"><em><strong>Notes and Abbreviations:</strong> a/ Included in the energy index; b/ Included in the non-energy index&nbsp;</em></p><p style="text-align:justify"><em><strong>Source: </strong>Same as table-1</em><br /><strong>---</strong></p><p style="text-align:justify">The quarterly average price of Brent crude oil <em>(included in the World Bank&#39;s energy index)</em> shot up over the quarters to US$ 112.7 per barrel in April-June 2022 from US$ 73.0 per barrel in July-September last year. The quarterly average price of Brent crude oil fell to US$ 99.2 per barrel in July-September this year. Please see table-2.&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">The <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/Commodity%20Markets%20Outlook%20October%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/Commodity%20Markets%20Outlook%20October%202022.pdf">Commodity Markets Outlook</a>&nbsp;brought out by the World Bank in October this year mentions that the crude oil prices are expected to ease in 2023-24. Brent crude oil prices are forecast to average US$ 92 per barrel in 2023 <em>(close to their current level)</em>, before declining to US$ 80 per barrel in 2024.</p><p style="text-align:justify"><strong>Chart 1: World Bank Commodity Price Index: Groups and weights</strong></p><p style="text-align:justify"><img alt="" src="/upload/images/Groups%20and%20Weights%20World%20Bank%20Commodity%20Price%20Index.PNG" style="height:450px; width:312px" /></p><p style="text-align:justify"><em><strong>Source: </strong>World Bank Prospects Group&nbsp;</em></p><p style="text-align:justify"><strong>---</strong></p><p style="text-align:justify">It is worth noting that within the commodity group &#39;energy&#39;, the weight for crude oil&nbsp;<em>(used in the World Bank Energy Price Index) </em>is 84.6 percent, whereas that of coal and natural gas are 4.7 percent and 10.8 percent, respectively. Please consult chart-1. &nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">It should be added that on December 6 this year, the <a href="https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-economics/g7-russia-oil-price-cap-explained-8308305/" title="https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-economics/g7-russia-oil-price-cap-explained-8308305/">Brent crude price</a> climbed <a href="https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-economics/g7-russia-oil-price-cap-explained-8308305/" title="https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-economics/g7-russia-oil-price-cap-explained-8308305/">60-70 cents a barrel</a> in early trade. This happened following the proposal of imposing a price cap of <a href="https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-economics/g7-russia-oil-price-cap-explained-8308305/" title="https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-economics/g7-russia-oil-price-cap-explained-8308305/">US$ 60 per barrel</a> on Russian seaborne oil by the Group of Seven (G7), European Union and Australia on December 5. As compared to <a href="https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-economics/g7-russia-oil-price-cap-explained-8308305/" title="https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-economics/g7-russia-oil-price-cap-explained-8308305/">US$ 85 per barrel</a> for Brent crude, the Russian crude is trading at nearly US$ 68 per barrel. The estimated cost of production of Russia&rsquo;s main crude variants such as the Urals, is nearly <a href="https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-economics/g7-russia-oil-price-cap-explained-8308305/" title="https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-economics/g7-russia-oil-price-cap-explained-8308305/">US$ 20-US$ 44 a barrel</a> in that region. Hence, the price cap of US$ 60 per barrel on Russian seaborne oil is not going to have much impact on Russia&#39;s oil trade and profit margins. So far India is non-committal on any such pricing cap arrangement. Thanks to the price gap between Brent crude and Russian crude, India is now importing over <a href="https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-economics/g7-russia-oil-price-cap-explained-8308305/" title="https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-economics/g7-russia-oil-price-cap-explained-8308305/">20 percent</a> of its total requirement from Russia, which used to be less than 1 percent of its total crude need prior to the Russia-Ukraine war.</p><p style="text-align:justify"><img alt="" src="/upload/images/Graphs%201a%20and%201b%281%29.png" style="height:1000px; width:634px" /></p><p style="text-align:justify"><em><strong>Source: </strong>Index Numbers of Wholesale Price in India for the Month of October, 2022 (Base Year: 2011-12), released on November 14, 2022, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, please <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/WPI%20released%20on%2014%20Nov%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/WPI%20released%20on%2014%20Nov%202022.pdf">click here</a> to access</em></p><p style="text-align:justify"><strong>---</strong></p><p style="text-align:justify">According to the <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/WPI%20released%20on%2014%20Nov%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/WPI%20released%20on%2014%20Nov%202022.pdf">data of the Ministry of Commerce and Industry</a>, the wholesale price index (WPI) for crude petroleum declined to 133.9 in September from 173.5 in June 2022. However, the same has escalated to 151.6 in October. On a y-o-y basis, the WPI-based inflation rates for crude petroleum were 78.67 percent in May, 72.98 percent in June, 58.77 percent in July, 50.57 percent in August, 32.18 percent in September, and 30.69 percent in October this year. Please look at graphs-1a and 1b.</p><p style="text-align:justify">It should be noted that the percentage share of petroleum, crude &amp; products in India&#39;s total imports <em>(in US$ million value terms) </em>stood at <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/PIB%20Merchandise%20Trade%20dated%203%20Sep%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/PIB%20Merchandise%20Trade%20dated%203%20Sep%202022.pdf">28.54 percent in</a> <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/PIB%20Merchandise%20Trade%20dated%203%20Sep%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/PIB%20Merchandise%20Trade%20dated%203%20Sep%202022.pdf">August 2022</a>. In the case of petroleum, crude and products, the value of imports expanded from <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/PIB%20Merchandise%20Trade%20dated%203%20Sep%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/PIB%20Merchandise%20Trade%20dated%203%20Sep%202022.pdf">US$ 9,443.19 million</a> in August 2021 to <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/PIB%20Merchandise%20Trade%20dated%203%20Sep%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/PIB%20Merchandise%20Trade%20dated%203%20Sep%202022.pdf">US$ 17,606.06 million</a> in August 2022 i.e., by 86.44 percent.</p><p style="text-align:justify"><strong>Fertilizer prices</strong></p><p style="text-align:justify">India&#39;s Green Revolution-based farming is dependent on chemical fertilizers. The monthly average fertilizer index prepared by the World Bank had increased from <a href="https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/5d903e848db1d1b83e0ec8f744e55570-0350012021/related/CMO-Historical-Data-Monthly.xlsx" title="https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/5d903e848db1d1b83e0ec8f744e55570-0350012021/related/CMO-Historical-Data-Monthly.xlsx">100.07 in February 2021</a> to <a href="https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/5d903e848db1d1b83e0ec8f744e55570-0350012021/related/CMO-Historical-Data-Monthly.xlsx" title="https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/5d903e848db1d1b83e0ec8f744e55570-0350012021/related/CMO-Historical-Data-Monthly.xlsx">208.01 in December 2021</a>. Due to the Russia-Ukraine war, the monthly average fertilizer index further climbed to <a href="https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/5d903e848db1d1b83e0ec8f744e55570-0350012021/related/CMO-Historical-Data-Monthly.xlsx" title="https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/5d903e848db1d1b83e0ec8f744e55570-0350012021/related/CMO-Historical-Data-Monthly.xlsx">254.97 in April</a> this year. Between October and November this year, the monthly fertilizer index fell by -5.8 percent.</p><p style="text-align:justify">The <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/World%20Bank%20Commodities%20Price%20Data%20released%20on%202%20December%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/World%20Bank%20Commodities%20Price%20Data%20released%20on%202%20December%202022.pdf">World Bank&#39;s</a> <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/World%20Bank%20Commodities%20Price%20Data%20released%20on%202%20December%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/World%20Bank%20Commodities%20Price%20Data%20released%20on%202%20December%202022.pdf">quarterly average fertilizer price index</a> for low- and middle-income countries <em>(2010=100)</em> grew over the quarters to 215.2 in July-September 2022 from 129.1 in the corresponding period last year. It means that the quarterly average fertilizer price index soared y-o-y by almost 66.7 percent in July-September this year over the corresponding period last year. Kindly see table-1.&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">The <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/World%20Bank%20Commodities%20Price%20Data%20released%20on%202%20December%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/World%20Bank%20Commodities%20Price%20Data%20released%20on%202%20December%202022.pdf">annual average price</a> of <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/World%20Bank%20Commodities%20Price%20Data%20released%20on%202%20December%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/World%20Bank%20Commodities%20Price%20Data%20released%20on%202%20December%202022.pdf">diammonium phosphate (DAP)</a>&nbsp;almost doubled from US$ 312.4 per metric ton in January-December 2020 to US$ 601.0 per metric ton in January-December 2021. Kindly have a look at table-2.&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">The <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">data provided by the Ministry</a> <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">of Chemicals and Fertilizers</a> shows that the average international price of DAP <em>(cost and freight, i.e., CFR) </em>escalated from <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">US$ 682 per metric tonne</a> in October last year to <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">US$ 945 per metric tonne</a> in July this year. The DAP price has gone down to <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">US$ 722 per metric tonne in October 2022</a>. On a y-o-y basis, the price of DAP <em>(CFR)</em> went up by <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">5.87 percent in October 2022</a> over the corresponding period last year.&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify"><a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">Official data</a> also shows that the average international price of Muriate of Potash i.e., MoP (CFR) went up from <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">US$ 280 per metric tonne</a> in October last year to <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">US$ 590 per metric tonne</a> in March 2022. From March to October this year, the average international price of MoP (CFR) has remained at the same rate. On a y-o-y basis, the price of MoP (CFR) soared by 110.71 percent in October 2022 over the corresponding period last year.&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">Belarus is one of the significant <a href="https://www.newsclick.in/fertiliser-crisis-making-government-denial" title="https://www.newsclick.in/fertiliser-crisis-making-government-denial">exporters of MoP to India</a>. On the contrary, China has emerged as the most important exporter of DAP to us in the recent years.</p><p style="text-align:justify">India&#39;s import of DAP stood at <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202021%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202021%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">6.39 lakh metric tonne</a> (LMT) in <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202021%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202021%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">October 2021</a>, <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20November%202021%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20November%202021%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">6.86 LMT</a> in <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20November%202021%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20November%202021%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">November 2021</a>, <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20December%202021%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20December%202021%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">3.66 LMT</a> in <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20December%202021%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20December%202021%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">December 2021</a>, <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20January%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20January%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">2.45 LMT</a> in <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20January%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20January%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">January 2022</a>, <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20February%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20February%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">4.81 LMT</a> in <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20February%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20February%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">February 2022</a>, <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20March%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20March%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">7.25 LMT</a> in <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20March%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20March%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">March 2022</a>, <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20April%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20April%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">4.10 LMT</a> in <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20April%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20April%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">April 2022</a>, <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20May%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20May%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">1.95 LMT</a> in <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20May%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20May%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">May 2022</a>, <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20June%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20June%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">2.71 LMT</a> in <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20June%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20June%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">June 2022</a>, <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20July%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20July%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">3.64 LMT</a> in <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20July%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20July%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">July 2022</a>, <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20August%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20August%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">7.30 LMT</a> in <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20August%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20August%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">August 2022</a>, <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20September%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20September%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">8.55 LMT</a> in <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20September%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20September%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">September 2022</a>, and <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers%282%29.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers%282%29.pdf">14.7 LMT</a> in <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers%282%29.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers%282%29.pdf">October 2022</a>. &nbsp; &nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">The country&#39;s import of MoP for both industrial use and agricultural use stood at <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202021%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202021%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">1.82 LMT</a>&nbsp;in <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202021%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202021%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">October 2021</a>, <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20November%202021%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20November%202021%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">1.18 LMT</a> in <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20November%202021%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20November%202021%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">November 2021</a>, <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20December%202021%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20December%202021%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">1.79 lakh LMT</a> in <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20December%202021%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20December%202021%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">December 2021</a>, <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20January%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20January%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">3.4 LMT</a> in <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20January%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20January%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">January 2022</a>, <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20February%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20February%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">3.26 LMT</a> in <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20February%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20February%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">February 2022</a>, <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20March%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20March%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">0.53 LMT</a> in <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20March%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20March%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">March 2022</a>, <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20April%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20April%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">2.50 LMT</a> in <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20April%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20April%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">April 2022</a>, <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20May%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20May%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">1.80 LMT</a> in <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20May%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20May%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">May 2022</a>, <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20June%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20June%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">1.22 LMT</a> in <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20June%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20June%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">June 2022</a>, <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20July%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20July%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">1.80 LMT</a> in <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20July%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20July%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">July 2022</a>, <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20August%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20August%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">1.44 LMT</a> in <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20August%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20August%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">August 2022</a>, <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20September%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20September%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">2.26 LMT</a> in <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20September%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20September%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">September 2022</a>, and <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers%282%29.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers%282%29.pdf">2.36 LMT</a> in <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers%282%29.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers%282%29.pdf">October 2022</a>.&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">India&#39;s <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/PIB%20Import%20of%20fertilizers.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/PIB%20Import%20of%20fertilizers.pdf">import of NPK fertilizers</a> -- nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and potassium (K) -- too has more than doubled from 5.21 LMT to 13.9 LMT between 2016-17 and 2020-21. &nbsp; &nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify"><strong>Edible oils</strong></p><p style="text-align:justify">The <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/World%20Bank%20Commodities%20Price%20Data%20released%20on%202%20December%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/World%20Bank%20Commodities%20Price%20Data%20released%20on%202%20December%202022.pdf">World Bank&rsquo;s monthly average oils and meals price index</a> for low- and middle-income countries <em>(2010=100)</em> had declined from 129.3 to 126.8 between September and October this year, and went up to 129.6 in November. Please see table-1.&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">The <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/World%20Bank%20Commodities%20Price%20Data%20released%20on%202%20December%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/World%20Bank%20Commodities%20Price%20Data%20released%20on%202%20December%202022.pdf">World Bank&#39;s quarterly average</a> <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/World%20Bank%20Commodities%20Price%20Data%20released%20on%202%20December%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/World%20Bank%20Commodities%20Price%20Data%20released%20on%202%20December%202022.pdf">oils and meals price index</a> rose gradually over the quarters from 126.5 in July-September 2021 to 162.9 in April-June this year, and fell to 133.0 in July-September 2022. On a y-o-y basis, therefore, the quarterly average oils and meals price index for low- and middle-income countries (2010=100) grew by 5.14 percent in July-September 2022 over the corresponding period last year.&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">The World Bank&#39;s <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/World%20Bank%20Commodities%20Price%20Data%20released%20on%202%20December%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/World%20Bank%20Commodities%20Price%20Data%20released%20on%202%20December%202022.pdf">annual average oils and meals price</a> <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/World%20Bank%20Commodities%20Price%20Data%20released%20on%202%20December%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/World%20Bank%20Commodities%20Price%20Data%20released%20on%202%20December%202022.pdf">index</a> climbed up over the years from 77.5 in January-December 2019 to 89.8 in January-December 2020, and increased further to 127.1 in January-December 2021.</p><p style="text-align:justify">Among others, the <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/World%20Bank%20Commodities%20Price%20Data%20released%20on%202%20December%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/World%20Bank%20Commodities%20Price%20Data%20released%20on%202%20December%202022.pdf">quarterly average price of palm oil</a> <em>(included in the World Bank&#39;s non-energy index)</em> rose over the quarters to US$ 1,634 per metric ton in April-June 2022 from US$ 1,129 per metric ton in the July-September last year. The quarterly average price of palm oil decreased to US$ 997 per metric ton in July-September this year. The annual average of palm oil jumped from US$ 601 per metric ton in January-December 2019 to US$ 752 per metric ton in January-December 2020, and further to US$ 1,131 per metric ton in January-December 2021. Please have a look at table-2.&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">The major vegetable oils <em>(mostly edible oils) </em>imported <em>(in volume terms)</em> during 2021-22 were crude palm oil <em>(<a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/CACP%20Rabi%202023-24%20marketing%20season.png" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/CACP%20Rabi%202023-24%20marketing%20season.png">44.9 percent</a>)</em>, soybean oil <em>(<a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/CACP%20Rabi%202023-24%20marketing%20season.png" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/CACP%20Rabi%202023-24%20marketing%20season.png">27.2 percent</a>)</em>, and sunflower oil <em>(<a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/CACP%20Rabi%202023-24%20marketing%20season.png" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/CACP%20Rabi%202023-24%20marketing%20season.png">14.5 percent</a>)</em>.</p><p style="text-align:justify">Please note that the percentage share of vegetable oils <em>(mostly edible oils) </em>in India&#39;s total imports <em>(in US$ million value terms) </em>stood at <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/PIB%20Merchandise%20Trade%20dated%203%20Sep%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/PIB%20Merchandise%20Trade%20dated%203%20Sep%202022.pdf">3.06 percent in August 2022</a>. In the case of vegetable oils, the value of imports expanded from <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/PIB%20Merchandise%20Trade%20dated%203%20Sep%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/PIB%20Merchandise%20Trade%20dated%203%20Sep%202022.pdf">US$ 1,335.50 million</a> in August 2021 to <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/PIB%20Merchandise%20Trade%20dated%203%20Sep%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/PIB%20Merchandise%20Trade%20dated%203%20Sep%202022.pdf">US$ 1,890.43 million</a> in August 2022 i.e., by 41.55 percent.</p><p style="text-align:justify">Our country depends on imports of oilseeds and edibles oils to meet its domestic requirements. Around <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/Price%20Policy%20Rabi%20Crops%20Marketing%20Season%202023-24.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/Price%20Policy%20Rabi%20Crops%20Marketing%20Season%202023-24.pdf">60 percent of India&rsquo;s edible oils</a> requirement is met through imports. On average, each Indian consumes roughly <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/Price%20Policy%20Rabi%20Crops%20Marketing%20Season%202023-24.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/Price%20Policy%20Rabi%20Crops%20Marketing%20Season%202023-24.pdf">19 kg edible oil per year</a>. Although cultivation of various oilseed crops takes place in the country, the domestic production of edible oils is insufficient vis-&agrave;-vis domestic demand owing to low productivity, among other things.&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">In quantity terms, the country&#39;s import of vegetable oils&nbsp;<em>(mostly edible oils)</em> grew from <a href="/upload/files/CACP%20Rabi%202023-24%20marketing%20season.png" title="/upload/files/CACP%20Rabi%202023-24%20marketing%20season.png">8.4 million tonnes</a> to around <a href="/upload/files/CACP%20Rabi%202023-24%20marketing%20season.png" title="/upload/files/CACP%20Rabi%202023-24%20marketing%20season.png">14.3 million tonnes</a> between 2011-12 and 2021-22. In value terms, the import of edible oils has almost tripled from <a href="/upload/files/CACP%20Rabi%202023-24%20marketing%20season.png" title="/upload/files/CACP%20Rabi%202023-24%20marketing%20season.png">Rs. 46,334 crores</a> to <a href="/upload/files/CACP%20Rabi%202023-24%20marketing%20season.png" title="/upload/files/CACP%20Rabi%202023-24%20marketing%20season.png">Rs. 1,41,541 crores</a> between 2011-12 and 2021-22.</p><p style="text-align:justify">The <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/WPI%20released%20on%2014%20Nov%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/WPI%20released%20on%2014%20Nov%202022.pdf">data of the</a> <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/WPI%20released%20on%2014%20Nov%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/WPI%20released%20on%2014%20Nov%202022.pdf">Ministry of Commerce and Industry</a> shows that the WPI for oilseeds declined to 189.0 in October from 223.7 in May 2022. On a y-o-y basis, the WPI-based inflation rates for oilseeds were 7.08 percent in May, 2.74 percent in June, -4.06 percent in July, -13.48 percent in August, -16.55 percent in September, and -5.36 in October this year. Please look at graphs-1a and 1b.</p><p style="text-align:justify">Please <a href="http://im4change.org/news-alerts-57/it-s-time-to-protect-the-poor-and-the-migrants-from-rising-edible-oil-prices.html" title="http://im4change.org/news-alerts-57/it-s-time-to-protect-the-poor-and-the-migrants-from-rising-edible-oil-prices.html">click here</a> in order to know more about the edible oil situation in India during the COVID-19 pandemic.&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify"><strong><em>References</em></strong></p><p style="text-align:justify">Price Policy Rabi Crops Marketing Season 2023-24, Commission for Agricultural Costs &amp; Prices, Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers&#39; Welfare, please <a href="/upload/files/Price%20Policy%20Rabi%20Crops%20Marketing%20Season%202023-24.pdf" title="/upload/files/Price%20Policy%20Rabi%20Crops%20Marketing%20Season%202023-24.pdf">click here</a> to access&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">Commodity Prices and Markets, World Bank, please <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets" title="https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets">click here</a> to access &nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">World Bank Commodities Price Data (The Pink Sheet), released on December 2, 2022, please <a href="/upload/files/World%20Bank%20Commodities%20Price%20Data%20released%20on%202%20December%202022.pdf" title="/upload/files/World%20Bank%20Commodities%20Price%20Data%20released%20on%202%20December%202022.pdf">click here</a> to access&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">World Bank Commodity Price Data, monthly indices based on nominal US dollars, 2010=100, 1960 to present, released in December 2022, please <a href="https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/5d903e848db1d1b83e0ec8f744e55570-0350012021/related/CMO-Historical-Data-Monthly.xlsx" title="https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/5d903e848db1d1b83e0ec8f744e55570-0350012021/related/CMO-Historical-Data-Monthly.xlsx">click here</a> to access</p><p style="text-align:justify">Commodity Markets Outlook: Pandemic, war, recession: Drivers of aluminium and copper prices, released in October 2022, World Bank, please <a href="/upload/files/Commodity%20Markets%20Outlook%20October%202022.pdf" title="/upload/files/Commodity%20Markets%20Outlook%20October%202022.pdf">click here</a> to access&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">Index Numbers of Wholesale Price in India for the Month of October, 2022 (Base Year: 2011-12), released on November 14, 2022, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, please <a href="/upload/files/WPI%20released%20on%2014%20Nov%202022.pdf" title="/upload/files/WPI%20released%20on%2014%20Nov%202022.pdf">click here</a> to access&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">Monthly Bulletins, Ministry of Chemicals and Fertilizers, please <a href="https://www.fert.nic.in/monthly-bulletin" title="https://www.fert.nic.in/monthly-bulletin">click here</a> to access &nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">Press release: India&#39;s Foreign Trade in October 2022, released on November 15, 2022, Ministry of Commerce and Industry please <a href="/upload/files/Press-Release%20Ministry%20of%20Commerce%20October-2022.pdf" title="/upload/files/Press-Release%20Ministry%20of%20Commerce%20October-2022.pdf">click here</a> to access</p><p style="text-align:justify">Press release: India&#39;s Merchandise Trade: Preliminary Data of August 2022, released on September 3, 2022 Press Information Bureau, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, please <a href="/upload/files/PIB%20Merchandise%20Trade%20dated%203%20Sep%202022.pdf" title="/upload/files/PIB%20Merchandise%20Trade%20dated%203%20Sep%202022.pdf">click here</a> to access&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">Press release: Import of fertilizers in the country, released on March 29, 2022, Ministry of Chemicals and Fertilizers, please <a href="/upload/files/PIB%20Import%20of%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/PIB%20Import%20of%20fertilizers.pdf">click here</a> to access&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">News alert: It&rsquo;s time to protect the poor and the migrants from rising edible oil prices, Inclusive Media for Change, published on Jun 11, 2021, please <a href="https://im4change.org/news-alerts-57/it-s-time-to-protect-the-poor-and-the-migrants-from-rising-edible-oil-prices.html" title="https://im4change.org/news-alerts-57/it-s-time-to-protect-the-poor-and-the-migrants-from-rising-edible-oil-prices.html">click here</a> to read more</p><p style="text-align:justify">Why the G7&rsquo;s oil price cap is unlikely to impact Russia -Anil Sasi, The Indian Express, December 6, 2022, please <a href="https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-economics/g7-russia-oil-price-cap-explained-8308305/" title="https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-economics/g7-russia-oil-price-cap-explained-8308305/">click here</a> to access &nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">Fertilizer Crisis a Making of Government&#39;s Denial -Suresh Garimella, Newsclick.in, March 10, 2022, please <a href="https://www.newsclick.in/fertiliser-crisis-making-government-denial" title="https://www.newsclick.in/fertiliser-crisis-making-government-denial">click here</a> to access &nbsp; &nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify"><strong>Image Courtesy: <a href="https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/20445/908110ESW0WHIT0ctor0Report008008013.pdf?sequence=1&amp;isAllowed=y" title="https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/20445/908110ESW0WHIT0ctor0Report008008013.pdf?sequence=1&amp;isAllowed=y">Reforming the Indian Ports Sector</a></strong></p>                                                           
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                            <p style="text-align:justify">There is some respite expected for India in terms of prices of imported commodities. This may ease the <a href="https://rbi.org.in/Scripts/PublicationsView.aspx?id=21355" title="https://rbi.org.in/Scripts/PublicationsView.aspx?id=21355">depletion of its foreign exchange</a> <a href="https://rbi.org.in/Scripts/PublicationsView.aspx?id=21355" title="https://rbi.org.in/Scripts/PublicationsView.aspx?id=21355">reserves</a>.&nbsp;The country has faced a widening of its merchandise trade deficit from <a href="/upload/files/Press-Release%20Ministry%20of%20Commerce%20October-2022.pdf" title="/upload/files/Press-Release%20Ministry%20of%20Commerce%20October-2022.pdf">US$ -17.91 billion</a> to <a href="/upload/files/Press-Release%20Ministry%20of%20Commerce%20October-2022.pdf" title="/upload/files/Press-Release%20Ministry%20of%20Commerce%20October-2022.pdf">US$ -26.91 billion</a> between October 2021 and October 2022.&nbsp;The <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets" title="https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets">commodity price data</a> <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets" title="https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets">provided by the World Bank</a> in December 2022 <em>(termed as The Pink Sheet) </em>shows that energy prices plummeted by about -4.5 percent in November on a month-on-month <em>(m-o-m)</em> basis, thanks to a decline in the prices of coal <em>(-12.2 percent)</em>, and natural gas in Europe <em>(-8.5 percent)</em>.&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">On top of that, fertilizer prices crashed&nbsp;by -5.8 percent m-o-m in November this year. Raw material prices gained m-o-m in November by 2.1 percent, whereas metal prices saw a rise of around 5 percent thanks to nickel <em>(16 percent)</em>, tin <em>(9.6 percent),</em> and copper <em>(5.2 percent)</em>.</p><p style="text-align:justify"><strong>Energy prices</strong></p><p style="text-align:justify">The World Bank&rsquo;s monthly average energy price index for low- and middle-income countries <em>(2010=100)</em> had declined from <a href="https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/5d903e848db1d1b83e0ec8f744e55570-0350012021/related/CMO-Historical-Data-Monthly.xlsx" title="https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/5d903e848db1d1b83e0ec8f744e55570-0350012021/related/CMO-Historical-Data-Monthly.xlsx">158.2 to 146.2</a> between <a href="https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/5d903e848db1d1b83e0ec8f744e55570-0350012021/related/CMO-Historical-Data-Monthly.xlsx" title="https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/5d903e848db1d1b83e0ec8f744e55570-0350012021/related/CMO-Historical-Data-Monthly.xlsx">September and October</a> this year, and further went down to <a href="https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/5d903e848db1d1b83e0ec8f744e55570-0350012021/related/CMO-Historical-Data-Monthly.xlsx" title="https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/5d903e848db1d1b83e0ec8f744e55570-0350012021/related/CMO-Historical-Data-Monthly.xlsx">139.6 in November</a>.</p><p style="text-align:justify"><strong>Table 1: World Bank commodity price indices for low- and middle-income countries (2010=100)</strong></p><p style="text-align:justify"><img alt="" src="/upload/images/Table%201%20World%20Bank%20commodity%20price%20indices%20for%20low%20and%20middle%20income%20countries%202010%20equals%20to%20100.PNG" style="height:386px; width:1000px" /></p><p style="text-align:justify"><em><strong>Source: </strong>World Bank Commodities Price Data, The Pink Sheet, released on December 2, 2022, please <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/World%20Bank%20Commodities%20Price%20Data%20released%20on%202%20December%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/World%20Bank%20Commodities%20Price%20Data%20released%20on%202%20December%202022.pdf">click here</a> to access&nbsp;</em><br /><strong>---</strong></p><p style="text-align:justify">The <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/World%20Bank%20Commodities%20Price%20Data%20released%20on%202%20December%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/World%20Bank%20Commodities%20Price%20Data%20released%20on%202%20December%202022.pdf">World Bank&#39;s quarterly average</a> <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/World%20Bank%20Commodities%20Price%20Data%20released%20on%202%20December%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/World%20Bank%20Commodities%20Price%20Data%20released%20on%202%20December%202022.pdf">energy price index</a> surged gradually over the quarters from 100.6 in July-September 2021 to 167.6 in July-September this year. On a year-on-year <em>(y-o-y) </em>basis, therefore, the quarterly average energy price index for low- and middle-income countries went up by 66.6 percent in July-September 2022 over the corresponding period last year. Please see table-1.&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify"><strong>Table 2: International prices of various commodities as per the World Bank</strong>&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify"><img alt="" src="/upload/images/Table%202%20International%20Prices%20of%20various%20commodities%20as%20per%20the%20WB.PNG" style="height:596px; width:992px" /></p><p style="text-align:justify"><em><strong>Notes and Abbreviations:</strong> a/ Included in the energy index; b/ Included in the non-energy index&nbsp;</em></p><p style="text-align:justify"><em><strong>Source: </strong>Same as table-1</em><br /><strong>---</strong></p><p style="text-align:justify">The quarterly average price of Brent crude oil <em>(included in the World Bank&#39;s energy index)</em> shot up over the quarters to US$ 112.7 per barrel in April-June 2022 from US$ 73.0 per barrel in July-September last year. The quarterly average price of Brent crude oil fell to US$ 99.2 per barrel in July-September this year. Please see table-2.&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">The <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/Commodity%20Markets%20Outlook%20October%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/Commodity%20Markets%20Outlook%20October%202022.pdf">Commodity Markets Outlook</a>&nbsp;brought out by the World Bank in October this year mentions that the crude oil prices are expected to ease in 2023-24. Brent crude oil prices are forecast to average US$ 92 per barrel in 2023 <em>(close to their current level)</em>, before declining to US$ 80 per barrel in 2024.</p><p style="text-align:justify"><strong>Chart 1: World Bank Commodity Price Index: Groups and weights</strong></p><p style="text-align:justify"><img alt="" src="/upload/images/Groups%20and%20Weights%20World%20Bank%20Commodity%20Price%20Index.PNG" style="height:450px; width:312px" /></p><p style="text-align:justify"><em><strong>Source: </strong>World Bank Prospects Group&nbsp;</em></p><p style="text-align:justify"><strong>---</strong></p><p style="text-align:justify">It is worth noting that within the commodity group &#39;energy&#39;, the weight for crude oil&nbsp;<em>(used in the World Bank Energy Price Index) </em>is 84.6 percent, whereas that of coal and natural gas are 4.7 percent and 10.8 percent, respectively. Please consult chart-1. &nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">It should be added that on December 6 this year, the <a href="https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-economics/g7-russia-oil-price-cap-explained-8308305/" title="https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-economics/g7-russia-oil-price-cap-explained-8308305/">Brent crude price</a> climbed <a href="https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-economics/g7-russia-oil-price-cap-explained-8308305/" title="https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-economics/g7-russia-oil-price-cap-explained-8308305/">60-70 cents a barrel</a> in early trade. This happened following the proposal of imposing a price cap of <a href="https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-economics/g7-russia-oil-price-cap-explained-8308305/" title="https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-economics/g7-russia-oil-price-cap-explained-8308305/">US$ 60 per barrel</a> on Russian seaborne oil by the Group of Seven (G7), European Union and Australia on December 5. As compared to <a href="https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-economics/g7-russia-oil-price-cap-explained-8308305/" title="https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-economics/g7-russia-oil-price-cap-explained-8308305/">US$ 85 per barrel</a> for Brent crude, the Russian crude is trading at nearly US$ 68 per barrel. The estimated cost of production of Russia&rsquo;s main crude variants such as the Urals, is nearly <a href="https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-economics/g7-russia-oil-price-cap-explained-8308305/" title="https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-economics/g7-russia-oil-price-cap-explained-8308305/">US$ 20-US$ 44 a barrel</a> in that region. Hence, the price cap of US$ 60 per barrel on Russian seaborne oil is not going to have much impact on Russia&#39;s oil trade and profit margins. So far India is non-committal on any such pricing cap arrangement. Thanks to the price gap between Brent crude and Russian crude, India is now importing over <a href="https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-economics/g7-russia-oil-price-cap-explained-8308305/" title="https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-economics/g7-russia-oil-price-cap-explained-8308305/">20 percent</a> of its total requirement from Russia, which used to be less than 1 percent of its total crude need prior to the Russia-Ukraine war.</p><p style="text-align:justify"><img alt="" src="/upload/images/Graphs%201a%20and%201b%281%29.png" style="height:1000px; width:634px" /></p><p style="text-align:justify"><em><strong>Source: </strong>Index Numbers of Wholesale Price in India for the Month of October, 2022 (Base Year: 2011-12), released on November 14, 2022, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, please <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/WPI%20released%20on%2014%20Nov%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/WPI%20released%20on%2014%20Nov%202022.pdf">click here</a> to access</em></p><p style="text-align:justify"><strong>---</strong></p><p style="text-align:justify">According to the <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/WPI%20released%20on%2014%20Nov%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/WPI%20released%20on%2014%20Nov%202022.pdf">data of the Ministry of Commerce and Industry</a>, the wholesale price index (WPI) for crude petroleum declined to 133.9 in September from 173.5 in June 2022. However, the same has escalated to 151.6 in October. On a y-o-y basis, the WPI-based inflation rates for crude petroleum were 78.67 percent in May, 72.98 percent in June, 58.77 percent in July, 50.57 percent in August, 32.18 percent in September, and 30.69 percent in October this year. Please look at graphs-1a and 1b.</p><p style="text-align:justify">It should be noted that the percentage share of petroleum, crude &amp; products in India&#39;s total imports <em>(in US$ million value terms) </em>stood at <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/PIB%20Merchandise%20Trade%20dated%203%20Sep%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/PIB%20Merchandise%20Trade%20dated%203%20Sep%202022.pdf">28.54 percent in</a> <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/PIB%20Merchandise%20Trade%20dated%203%20Sep%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/PIB%20Merchandise%20Trade%20dated%203%20Sep%202022.pdf">August 2022</a>. In the case of petroleum, crude and products, the value of imports expanded from <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/PIB%20Merchandise%20Trade%20dated%203%20Sep%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/PIB%20Merchandise%20Trade%20dated%203%20Sep%202022.pdf">US$ 9,443.19 million</a> in August 2021 to <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/PIB%20Merchandise%20Trade%20dated%203%20Sep%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/PIB%20Merchandise%20Trade%20dated%203%20Sep%202022.pdf">US$ 17,606.06 million</a> in August 2022 i.e., by 86.44 percent.</p><p style="text-align:justify"><strong>Fertilizer prices</strong></p><p style="text-align:justify">India&#39;s Green Revolution-based farming is dependent on chemical fertilizers. The monthly average fertilizer index prepared by the World Bank had increased from <a href="https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/5d903e848db1d1b83e0ec8f744e55570-0350012021/related/CMO-Historical-Data-Monthly.xlsx" title="https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/5d903e848db1d1b83e0ec8f744e55570-0350012021/related/CMO-Historical-Data-Monthly.xlsx">100.07 in February 2021</a> to <a href="https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/5d903e848db1d1b83e0ec8f744e55570-0350012021/related/CMO-Historical-Data-Monthly.xlsx" title="https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/5d903e848db1d1b83e0ec8f744e55570-0350012021/related/CMO-Historical-Data-Monthly.xlsx">208.01 in December 2021</a>. Due to the Russia-Ukraine war, the monthly average fertilizer index further climbed to <a href="https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/5d903e848db1d1b83e0ec8f744e55570-0350012021/related/CMO-Historical-Data-Monthly.xlsx" title="https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/5d903e848db1d1b83e0ec8f744e55570-0350012021/related/CMO-Historical-Data-Monthly.xlsx">254.97 in April</a> this year. Between October and November this year, the monthly fertilizer index fell by -5.8 percent.</p><p style="text-align:justify">The <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/World%20Bank%20Commodities%20Price%20Data%20released%20on%202%20December%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/World%20Bank%20Commodities%20Price%20Data%20released%20on%202%20December%202022.pdf">World Bank&#39;s</a> <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/World%20Bank%20Commodities%20Price%20Data%20released%20on%202%20December%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/World%20Bank%20Commodities%20Price%20Data%20released%20on%202%20December%202022.pdf">quarterly average fertilizer price index</a> for low- and middle-income countries <em>(2010=100)</em> grew over the quarters to 215.2 in July-September 2022 from 129.1 in the corresponding period last year. It means that the quarterly average fertilizer price index soared y-o-y by almost 66.7 percent in July-September this year over the corresponding period last year. Kindly see table-1.&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">The <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/World%20Bank%20Commodities%20Price%20Data%20released%20on%202%20December%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/World%20Bank%20Commodities%20Price%20Data%20released%20on%202%20December%202022.pdf">annual average price</a> of <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/World%20Bank%20Commodities%20Price%20Data%20released%20on%202%20December%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/World%20Bank%20Commodities%20Price%20Data%20released%20on%202%20December%202022.pdf">diammonium phosphate (DAP)</a>&nbsp;almost doubled from US$ 312.4 per metric ton in January-December 2020 to US$ 601.0 per metric ton in January-December 2021. Kindly have a look at table-2.&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">The <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">data provided by the Ministry</a> <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">of Chemicals and Fertilizers</a> shows that the average international price of DAP <em>(cost and freight, i.e., CFR) </em>escalated from <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">US$ 682 per metric tonne</a> in October last year to <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">US$ 945 per metric tonne</a> in July this year. The DAP price has gone down to <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">US$ 722 per metric tonne in October 2022</a>. On a y-o-y basis, the price of DAP <em>(CFR)</em> went up by <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">5.87 percent in October 2022</a> over the corresponding period last year.&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify"><a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">Official data</a> also shows that the average international price of Muriate of Potash i.e., MoP (CFR) went up from <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">US$ 280 per metric tonne</a> in October last year to <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">US$ 590 per metric tonne</a> in March 2022. From March to October this year, the average international price of MoP (CFR) has remained at the same rate. On a y-o-y basis, the price of MoP (CFR) soared by 110.71 percent in October 2022 over the corresponding period last year.&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">Belarus is one of the significant <a href="https://www.newsclick.in/fertiliser-crisis-making-government-denial" title="https://www.newsclick.in/fertiliser-crisis-making-government-denial">exporters of MoP to India</a>. On the contrary, China has emerged as the most important exporter of DAP to us in the recent years.</p><p style="text-align:justify">India&#39;s import of DAP stood at <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202021%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202021%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">6.39 lakh metric tonne</a> (LMT) in <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202021%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202021%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">October 2021</a>, <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20November%202021%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20November%202021%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">6.86 LMT</a> in <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20November%202021%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20November%202021%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">November 2021</a>, <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20December%202021%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20December%202021%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">3.66 LMT</a> in <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20December%202021%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20December%202021%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">December 2021</a>, <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20January%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20January%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">2.45 LMT</a> in <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20January%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20January%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">January 2022</a>, <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20February%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20February%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">4.81 LMT</a> in <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20February%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20February%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">February 2022</a>, <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20March%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20March%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">7.25 LMT</a> in <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20March%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20March%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">March 2022</a>, <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20April%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20April%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">4.10 LMT</a> in <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20April%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20April%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">April 2022</a>, <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20May%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20May%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">1.95 LMT</a> in <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20May%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20May%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">May 2022</a>, <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20June%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20June%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">2.71 LMT</a> in <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20June%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20June%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">June 2022</a>, <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20July%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20July%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">3.64 LMT</a> in <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20July%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20July%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">July 2022</a>, <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20August%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20August%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">7.30 LMT</a> in <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20August%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20August%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">August 2022</a>, <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20September%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20September%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">8.55 LMT</a> in <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20September%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20September%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">September 2022</a>, and <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers%282%29.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers%282%29.pdf">14.7 LMT</a> in <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers%282%29.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers%282%29.pdf">October 2022</a>. &nbsp; &nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">The country&#39;s import of MoP for both industrial use and agricultural use stood at <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202021%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202021%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">1.82 LMT</a>&nbsp;in <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202021%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202021%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">October 2021</a>, <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20November%202021%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20November%202021%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">1.18 LMT</a> in <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20November%202021%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20November%202021%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">November 2021</a>, <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20December%202021%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20December%202021%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">1.79 lakh LMT</a> in <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20December%202021%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20December%202021%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">December 2021</a>, <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20January%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20January%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">3.4 LMT</a> in <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20January%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20January%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">January 2022</a>, <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20February%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20February%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">3.26 LMT</a> in <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20February%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20February%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">February 2022</a>, <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20March%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20March%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">0.53 LMT</a> in <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20March%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20March%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">March 2022</a>, <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20April%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20April%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">2.50 LMT</a> in <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20April%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20April%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">April 2022</a>, <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20May%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20May%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">1.80 LMT</a> in <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20May%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20May%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">May 2022</a>, <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20June%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20June%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">1.22 LMT</a> in <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20June%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20June%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">June 2022</a>, <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20July%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20July%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">1.80 LMT</a> in <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20July%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20July%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">July 2022</a>, <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20August%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20August%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">1.44 LMT</a> in <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20August%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20August%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">August 2022</a>, <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20September%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20September%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">2.26 LMT</a> in <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20September%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20September%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">September 2022</a>, and <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers%282%29.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers%282%29.pdf">2.36 LMT</a> in <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers%282%29.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers%282%29.pdf">October 2022</a>.&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">India&#39;s <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/PIB%20Import%20of%20fertilizers.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/PIB%20Import%20of%20fertilizers.pdf">import of NPK fertilizers</a> -- nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and potassium (K) -- too has more than doubled from 5.21 LMT to 13.9 LMT between 2016-17 and 2020-21. &nbsp; &nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify"><strong>Edible oils</strong></p><p style="text-align:justify">The <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/World%20Bank%20Commodities%20Price%20Data%20released%20on%202%20December%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/World%20Bank%20Commodities%20Price%20Data%20released%20on%202%20December%202022.pdf">World Bank&rsquo;s monthly average oils and meals price index</a> for low- and middle-income countries <em>(2010=100)</em> had declined from 129.3 to 126.8 between September and October this year, and went up to 129.6 in November. Please see table-1.&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">The <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/World%20Bank%20Commodities%20Price%20Data%20released%20on%202%20December%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/World%20Bank%20Commodities%20Price%20Data%20released%20on%202%20December%202022.pdf">World Bank&#39;s quarterly average</a> <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/World%20Bank%20Commodities%20Price%20Data%20released%20on%202%20December%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/World%20Bank%20Commodities%20Price%20Data%20released%20on%202%20December%202022.pdf">oils and meals price index</a> rose gradually over the quarters from 126.5 in July-September 2021 to 162.9 in April-June this year, and fell to 133.0 in July-September 2022. On a y-o-y basis, therefore, the quarterly average oils and meals price index for low- and middle-income countries (2010=100) grew by 5.14 percent in July-September 2022 over the corresponding period last year.&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">The World Bank&#39;s <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/World%20Bank%20Commodities%20Price%20Data%20released%20on%202%20December%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/World%20Bank%20Commodities%20Price%20Data%20released%20on%202%20December%202022.pdf">annual average oils and meals price</a> <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/World%20Bank%20Commodities%20Price%20Data%20released%20on%202%20December%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/World%20Bank%20Commodities%20Price%20Data%20released%20on%202%20December%202022.pdf">index</a> climbed up over the years from 77.5 in January-December 2019 to 89.8 in January-December 2020, and increased further to 127.1 in January-December 2021.</p><p style="text-align:justify">Among others, the <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/World%20Bank%20Commodities%20Price%20Data%20released%20on%202%20December%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/World%20Bank%20Commodities%20Price%20Data%20released%20on%202%20December%202022.pdf">quarterly average price of palm oil</a> <em>(included in the World Bank&#39;s non-energy index)</em> rose over the quarters to US$ 1,634 per metric ton in April-June 2022 from US$ 1,129 per metric ton in the July-September last year. The quarterly average price of palm oil decreased to US$ 997 per metric ton in July-September this year. The annual average of palm oil jumped from US$ 601 per metric ton in January-December 2019 to US$ 752 per metric ton in January-December 2020, and further to US$ 1,131 per metric ton in January-December 2021. Please have a look at table-2.&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">The major vegetable oils <em>(mostly edible oils) </em>imported <em>(in volume terms)</em> during 2021-22 were crude palm oil <em>(<a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/CACP%20Rabi%202023-24%20marketing%20season.png" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/CACP%20Rabi%202023-24%20marketing%20season.png">44.9 percent</a>)</em>, soybean oil <em>(<a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/CACP%20Rabi%202023-24%20marketing%20season.png" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/CACP%20Rabi%202023-24%20marketing%20season.png">27.2 percent</a>)</em>, and sunflower oil <em>(<a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/CACP%20Rabi%202023-24%20marketing%20season.png" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/CACP%20Rabi%202023-24%20marketing%20season.png">14.5 percent</a>)</em>.</p><p style="text-align:justify">Please note that the percentage share of vegetable oils <em>(mostly edible oils) </em>in India&#39;s total imports <em>(in US$ million value terms) </em>stood at <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/PIB%20Merchandise%20Trade%20dated%203%20Sep%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/PIB%20Merchandise%20Trade%20dated%203%20Sep%202022.pdf">3.06 percent in August 2022</a>. In the case of vegetable oils, the value of imports expanded from <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/PIB%20Merchandise%20Trade%20dated%203%20Sep%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/PIB%20Merchandise%20Trade%20dated%203%20Sep%202022.pdf">US$ 1,335.50 million</a> in August 2021 to <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/PIB%20Merchandise%20Trade%20dated%203%20Sep%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/PIB%20Merchandise%20Trade%20dated%203%20Sep%202022.pdf">US$ 1,890.43 million</a> in August 2022 i.e., by 41.55 percent.</p><p style="text-align:justify">Our country depends on imports of oilseeds and edibles oils to meet its domestic requirements. Around <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/Price%20Policy%20Rabi%20Crops%20Marketing%20Season%202023-24.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/Price%20Policy%20Rabi%20Crops%20Marketing%20Season%202023-24.pdf">60 percent of India&rsquo;s edible oils</a> requirement is met through imports. On average, each Indian consumes roughly <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/Price%20Policy%20Rabi%20Crops%20Marketing%20Season%202023-24.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/Price%20Policy%20Rabi%20Crops%20Marketing%20Season%202023-24.pdf">19 kg edible oil per year</a>. Although cultivation of various oilseed crops takes place in the country, the domestic production of edible oils is insufficient vis-&agrave;-vis domestic demand owing to low productivity, among other things.&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">In quantity terms, the country&#39;s import of vegetable oils&nbsp;<em>(mostly edible oils)</em> grew from <a href="/upload/files/CACP%20Rabi%202023-24%20marketing%20season.png" title="/upload/files/CACP%20Rabi%202023-24%20marketing%20season.png">8.4 million tonnes</a> to around <a href="/upload/files/CACP%20Rabi%202023-24%20marketing%20season.png" title="/upload/files/CACP%20Rabi%202023-24%20marketing%20season.png">14.3 million tonnes</a> between 2011-12 and 2021-22. In value terms, the import of edible oils has almost tripled from <a href="/upload/files/CACP%20Rabi%202023-24%20marketing%20season.png" title="/upload/files/CACP%20Rabi%202023-24%20marketing%20season.png">Rs. 46,334 crores</a> to <a href="/upload/files/CACP%20Rabi%202023-24%20marketing%20season.png" title="/upload/files/CACP%20Rabi%202023-24%20marketing%20season.png">Rs. 1,41,541 crores</a> between 2011-12 and 2021-22.</p><p style="text-align:justify">The <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/WPI%20released%20on%2014%20Nov%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/WPI%20released%20on%2014%20Nov%202022.pdf">data of the</a> <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/WPI%20released%20on%2014%20Nov%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/WPI%20released%20on%2014%20Nov%202022.pdf">Ministry of Commerce and Industry</a> shows that the WPI for oilseeds declined to 189.0 in October from 223.7 in May 2022. On a y-o-y basis, the WPI-based inflation rates for oilseeds were 7.08 percent in May, 2.74 percent in June, -4.06 percent in July, -13.48 percent in August, -16.55 percent in September, and -5.36 in October this year. Please look at graphs-1a and 1b.</p><p style="text-align:justify">Please <a href="http://im4change.org/news-alerts-57/it-s-time-to-protect-the-poor-and-the-migrants-from-rising-edible-oil-prices.html" title="http://im4change.org/news-alerts-57/it-s-time-to-protect-the-poor-and-the-migrants-from-rising-edible-oil-prices.html">click here</a> in order to know more about the edible oil situation in India during the COVID-19 pandemic.&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify"><strong><em>References</em></strong></p><p style="text-align:justify">Price Policy Rabi Crops Marketing Season 2023-24, Commission for Agricultural Costs &amp; Prices, Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers&#39; Welfare, please <a href="/upload/files/Price%20Policy%20Rabi%20Crops%20Marketing%20Season%202023-24.pdf" title="/upload/files/Price%20Policy%20Rabi%20Crops%20Marketing%20Season%202023-24.pdf">click here</a> to access&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">Commodity Prices and Markets, World Bank, please <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets" title="https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets">click here</a> to access &nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">World Bank Commodities Price Data (The Pink Sheet), released on December 2, 2022, please <a href="/upload/files/World%20Bank%20Commodities%20Price%20Data%20released%20on%202%20December%202022.pdf" title="/upload/files/World%20Bank%20Commodities%20Price%20Data%20released%20on%202%20December%202022.pdf">click here</a> to access&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">World Bank Commodity Price Data, monthly indices based on nominal US dollars, 2010=100, 1960 to present, released in December 2022, please <a href="https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/5d903e848db1d1b83e0ec8f744e55570-0350012021/related/CMO-Historical-Data-Monthly.xlsx" title="https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/5d903e848db1d1b83e0ec8f744e55570-0350012021/related/CMO-Historical-Data-Monthly.xlsx">click here</a> to access</p><p style="text-align:justify">Commodity Markets Outlook: Pandemic, war, recession: Drivers of aluminium and copper prices, released in October 2022, World Bank, please <a href="/upload/files/Commodity%20Markets%20Outlook%20October%202022.pdf" title="/upload/files/Commodity%20Markets%20Outlook%20October%202022.pdf">click here</a> to access&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">Index Numbers of Wholesale Price in India for the Month of October, 2022 (Base Year: 2011-12), released on November 14, 2022, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, please <a href="/upload/files/WPI%20released%20on%2014%20Nov%202022.pdf" title="/upload/files/WPI%20released%20on%2014%20Nov%202022.pdf">click here</a> to access&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">Monthly Bulletins, Ministry of Chemicals and Fertilizers, please <a href="https://www.fert.nic.in/monthly-bulletin" title="https://www.fert.nic.in/monthly-bulletin">click here</a> to access &nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">Press release: India&#39;s Foreign Trade in October 2022, released on November 15, 2022, Ministry of Commerce and Industry please <a href="/upload/files/Press-Release%20Ministry%20of%20Commerce%20October-2022.pdf" title="/upload/files/Press-Release%20Ministry%20of%20Commerce%20October-2022.pdf">click here</a> to access</p><p style="text-align:justify">Press release: India&#39;s Merchandise Trade: Preliminary Data of August 2022, released on September 3, 2022 Press Information Bureau, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, please <a href="/upload/files/PIB%20Merchandise%20Trade%20dated%203%20Sep%202022.pdf" title="/upload/files/PIB%20Merchandise%20Trade%20dated%203%20Sep%202022.pdf">click here</a> to access&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">Press release: Import of fertilizers in the country, released on March 29, 2022, Ministry of Chemicals and Fertilizers, please <a href="/upload/files/PIB%20Import%20of%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/PIB%20Import%20of%20fertilizers.pdf">click here</a> to access&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">News alert: It&rsquo;s time to protect the poor and the migrants from rising edible oil prices, Inclusive Media for Change, published on Jun 11, 2021, please <a href="https://im4change.org/news-alerts-57/it-s-time-to-protect-the-poor-and-the-migrants-from-rising-edible-oil-prices.html" title="https://im4change.org/news-alerts-57/it-s-time-to-protect-the-poor-and-the-migrants-from-rising-edible-oil-prices.html">click here</a> to read more</p><p style="text-align:justify">Why the G7&rsquo;s oil price cap is unlikely to impact Russia -Anil Sasi, The Indian Express, December 6, 2022, please <a href="https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-economics/g7-russia-oil-price-cap-explained-8308305/" title="https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-economics/g7-russia-oil-price-cap-explained-8308305/">click here</a> to access &nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">Fertilizer Crisis a Making of Government&#39;s Denial -Suresh Garimella, Newsclick.in, March 10, 2022, please <a href="https://www.newsclick.in/fertiliser-crisis-making-government-denial" title="https://www.newsclick.in/fertiliser-crisis-making-government-denial">click here</a> to access &nbsp; &nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify"><strong>Image Courtesy: <a href="https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/20445/908110ESW0WHIT0ctor0Report008008013.pdf?sequence=1&amp;isAllowed=y" title="https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/20445/908110ESW0WHIT0ctor0Report008008013.pdf?sequence=1&amp;isAllowed=y">Reforming the Indian Ports Sector</a></strong></p>                                                           
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        NEWS ALERTS | What is in store for India’s imports?    </title>
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    <h1 class="cat-box-title">What is in store for India’s imports?</h1>
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                            <p style="text-align:justify">There is some respite expected for India in terms of prices of imported commodities. This may ease the <a href="https://rbi.org.in/Scripts/PublicationsView.aspx?id=21355" title="https://rbi.org.in/Scripts/PublicationsView.aspx?id=21355">depletion of its foreign exchange</a> <a href="https://rbi.org.in/Scripts/PublicationsView.aspx?id=21355" title="https://rbi.org.in/Scripts/PublicationsView.aspx?id=21355">reserves</a>.&nbsp;The country has faced a widening of its merchandise trade deficit from <a href="/upload/files/Press-Release%20Ministry%20of%20Commerce%20October-2022.pdf" title="/upload/files/Press-Release%20Ministry%20of%20Commerce%20October-2022.pdf">US$ -17.91 billion</a> to <a href="/upload/files/Press-Release%20Ministry%20of%20Commerce%20October-2022.pdf" title="/upload/files/Press-Release%20Ministry%20of%20Commerce%20October-2022.pdf">US$ -26.91 billion</a> between October 2021 and October 2022.&nbsp;The <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets" title="https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets">commodity price data</a> <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets" title="https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets">provided by the World Bank</a> in December 2022 <em>(termed as The Pink Sheet) </em>shows that energy prices plummeted by about -4.5 percent in November on a month-on-month <em>(m-o-m)</em> basis, thanks to a decline in the prices of coal <em>(-12.2 percent)</em>, and natural gas in Europe <em>(-8.5 percent)</em>.&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">On top of that, fertilizer prices crashed&nbsp;by -5.8 percent m-o-m in November this year. Raw material prices gained m-o-m in November by 2.1 percent, whereas metal prices saw a rise of around 5 percent thanks to nickel <em>(16 percent)</em>, tin <em>(9.6 percent),</em> and copper <em>(5.2 percent)</em>.</p><p style="text-align:justify"><strong>Energy prices</strong></p><p style="text-align:justify">The World Bank&rsquo;s monthly average energy price index for low- and middle-income countries <em>(2010=100)</em> had declined from <a href="https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/5d903e848db1d1b83e0ec8f744e55570-0350012021/related/CMO-Historical-Data-Monthly.xlsx" title="https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/5d903e848db1d1b83e0ec8f744e55570-0350012021/related/CMO-Historical-Data-Monthly.xlsx">158.2 to 146.2</a> between <a href="https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/5d903e848db1d1b83e0ec8f744e55570-0350012021/related/CMO-Historical-Data-Monthly.xlsx" title="https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/5d903e848db1d1b83e0ec8f744e55570-0350012021/related/CMO-Historical-Data-Monthly.xlsx">September and October</a> this year, and further went down to <a href="https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/5d903e848db1d1b83e0ec8f744e55570-0350012021/related/CMO-Historical-Data-Monthly.xlsx" title="https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/5d903e848db1d1b83e0ec8f744e55570-0350012021/related/CMO-Historical-Data-Monthly.xlsx">139.6 in November</a>.</p><p style="text-align:justify"><strong>Table 1: World Bank commodity price indices for low- and middle-income countries (2010=100)</strong></p><p style="text-align:justify"><img alt="" src="/upload/images/Table%201%20World%20Bank%20commodity%20price%20indices%20for%20low%20and%20middle%20income%20countries%202010%20equals%20to%20100.PNG" style="height:386px; width:1000px" /></p><p style="text-align:justify"><em><strong>Source: </strong>World Bank Commodities Price Data, The Pink Sheet, released on December 2, 2022, please <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/World%20Bank%20Commodities%20Price%20Data%20released%20on%202%20December%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/World%20Bank%20Commodities%20Price%20Data%20released%20on%202%20December%202022.pdf">click here</a> to access&nbsp;</em><br /><strong>---</strong></p><p style="text-align:justify">The <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/World%20Bank%20Commodities%20Price%20Data%20released%20on%202%20December%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/World%20Bank%20Commodities%20Price%20Data%20released%20on%202%20December%202022.pdf">World Bank&#39;s quarterly average</a> <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/World%20Bank%20Commodities%20Price%20Data%20released%20on%202%20December%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/World%20Bank%20Commodities%20Price%20Data%20released%20on%202%20December%202022.pdf">energy price index</a> surged gradually over the quarters from 100.6 in July-September 2021 to 167.6 in July-September this year. On a year-on-year <em>(y-o-y) </em>basis, therefore, the quarterly average energy price index for low- and middle-income countries went up by 66.6 percent in July-September 2022 over the corresponding period last year. Please see table-1.&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify"><strong>Table 2: International prices of various commodities as per the World Bank</strong>&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify"><img alt="" src="/upload/images/Table%202%20International%20Prices%20of%20various%20commodities%20as%20per%20the%20WB.PNG" style="height:596px; width:992px" /></p><p style="text-align:justify"><em><strong>Notes and Abbreviations:</strong> a/ Included in the energy index; b/ Included in the non-energy index&nbsp;</em></p><p style="text-align:justify"><em><strong>Source: </strong>Same as table-1</em><br /><strong>---</strong></p><p style="text-align:justify">The quarterly average price of Brent crude oil <em>(included in the World Bank&#39;s energy index)</em> shot up over the quarters to US$ 112.7 per barrel in April-June 2022 from US$ 73.0 per barrel in July-September last year. The quarterly average price of Brent crude oil fell to US$ 99.2 per barrel in July-September this year. Please see table-2.&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">The <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/Commodity%20Markets%20Outlook%20October%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/Commodity%20Markets%20Outlook%20October%202022.pdf">Commodity Markets Outlook</a>&nbsp;brought out by the World Bank in October this year mentions that the crude oil prices are expected to ease in 2023-24. Brent crude oil prices are forecast to average US$ 92 per barrel in 2023 <em>(close to their current level)</em>, before declining to US$ 80 per barrel in 2024.</p><p style="text-align:justify"><strong>Chart 1: World Bank Commodity Price Index: Groups and weights</strong></p><p style="text-align:justify"><img alt="" src="/upload/images/Groups%20and%20Weights%20World%20Bank%20Commodity%20Price%20Index.PNG" style="height:450px; width:312px" /></p><p style="text-align:justify"><em><strong>Source: </strong>World Bank Prospects Group&nbsp;</em></p><p style="text-align:justify"><strong>---</strong></p><p style="text-align:justify">It is worth noting that within the commodity group &#39;energy&#39;, the weight for crude oil&nbsp;<em>(used in the World Bank Energy Price Index) </em>is 84.6 percent, whereas that of coal and natural gas are 4.7 percent and 10.8 percent, respectively. Please consult chart-1. &nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">It should be added that on December 6 this year, the <a href="https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-economics/g7-russia-oil-price-cap-explained-8308305/" title="https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-economics/g7-russia-oil-price-cap-explained-8308305/">Brent crude price</a> climbed <a href="https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-economics/g7-russia-oil-price-cap-explained-8308305/" title="https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-economics/g7-russia-oil-price-cap-explained-8308305/">60-70 cents a barrel</a> in early trade. This happened following the proposal of imposing a price cap of <a href="https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-economics/g7-russia-oil-price-cap-explained-8308305/" title="https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-economics/g7-russia-oil-price-cap-explained-8308305/">US$ 60 per barrel</a> on Russian seaborne oil by the Group of Seven (G7), European Union and Australia on December 5. As compared to <a href="https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-economics/g7-russia-oil-price-cap-explained-8308305/" title="https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-economics/g7-russia-oil-price-cap-explained-8308305/">US$ 85 per barrel</a> for Brent crude, the Russian crude is trading at nearly US$ 68 per barrel. The estimated cost of production of Russia&rsquo;s main crude variants such as the Urals, is nearly <a href="https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-economics/g7-russia-oil-price-cap-explained-8308305/" title="https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-economics/g7-russia-oil-price-cap-explained-8308305/">US$ 20-US$ 44 a barrel</a> in that region. Hence, the price cap of US$ 60 per barrel on Russian seaborne oil is not going to have much impact on Russia&#39;s oil trade and profit margins. So far India is non-committal on any such pricing cap arrangement. Thanks to the price gap between Brent crude and Russian crude, India is now importing over <a href="https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-economics/g7-russia-oil-price-cap-explained-8308305/" title="https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-economics/g7-russia-oil-price-cap-explained-8308305/">20 percent</a> of its total requirement from Russia, which used to be less than 1 percent of its total crude need prior to the Russia-Ukraine war.</p><p style="text-align:justify"><img alt="" src="/upload/images/Graphs%201a%20and%201b%281%29.png" style="height:1000px; width:634px" /></p><p style="text-align:justify"><em><strong>Source: </strong>Index Numbers of Wholesale Price in India for the Month of October, 2022 (Base Year: 2011-12), released on November 14, 2022, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, please <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/WPI%20released%20on%2014%20Nov%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/WPI%20released%20on%2014%20Nov%202022.pdf">click here</a> to access</em></p><p style="text-align:justify"><strong>---</strong></p><p style="text-align:justify">According to the <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/WPI%20released%20on%2014%20Nov%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/WPI%20released%20on%2014%20Nov%202022.pdf">data of the Ministry of Commerce and Industry</a>, the wholesale price index (WPI) for crude petroleum declined to 133.9 in September from 173.5 in June 2022. However, the same has escalated to 151.6 in October. On a y-o-y basis, the WPI-based inflation rates for crude petroleum were 78.67 percent in May, 72.98 percent in June, 58.77 percent in July, 50.57 percent in August, 32.18 percent in September, and 30.69 percent in October this year. Please look at graphs-1a and 1b.</p><p style="text-align:justify">It should be noted that the percentage share of petroleum, crude &amp; products in India&#39;s total imports <em>(in US$ million value terms) </em>stood at <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/PIB%20Merchandise%20Trade%20dated%203%20Sep%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/PIB%20Merchandise%20Trade%20dated%203%20Sep%202022.pdf">28.54 percent in</a> <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/PIB%20Merchandise%20Trade%20dated%203%20Sep%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/PIB%20Merchandise%20Trade%20dated%203%20Sep%202022.pdf">August 2022</a>. In the case of petroleum, crude and products, the value of imports expanded from <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/PIB%20Merchandise%20Trade%20dated%203%20Sep%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/PIB%20Merchandise%20Trade%20dated%203%20Sep%202022.pdf">US$ 9,443.19 million</a> in August 2021 to <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/PIB%20Merchandise%20Trade%20dated%203%20Sep%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/PIB%20Merchandise%20Trade%20dated%203%20Sep%202022.pdf">US$ 17,606.06 million</a> in August 2022 i.e., by 86.44 percent.</p><p style="text-align:justify"><strong>Fertilizer prices</strong></p><p style="text-align:justify">India&#39;s Green Revolution-based farming is dependent on chemical fertilizers. The monthly average fertilizer index prepared by the World Bank had increased from <a href="https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/5d903e848db1d1b83e0ec8f744e55570-0350012021/related/CMO-Historical-Data-Monthly.xlsx" title="https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/5d903e848db1d1b83e0ec8f744e55570-0350012021/related/CMO-Historical-Data-Monthly.xlsx">100.07 in February 2021</a> to <a href="https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/5d903e848db1d1b83e0ec8f744e55570-0350012021/related/CMO-Historical-Data-Monthly.xlsx" title="https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/5d903e848db1d1b83e0ec8f744e55570-0350012021/related/CMO-Historical-Data-Monthly.xlsx">208.01 in December 2021</a>. Due to the Russia-Ukraine war, the monthly average fertilizer index further climbed to <a href="https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/5d903e848db1d1b83e0ec8f744e55570-0350012021/related/CMO-Historical-Data-Monthly.xlsx" title="https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/5d903e848db1d1b83e0ec8f744e55570-0350012021/related/CMO-Historical-Data-Monthly.xlsx">254.97 in April</a> this year. Between October and November this year, the monthly fertilizer index fell by -5.8 percent.</p><p style="text-align:justify">The <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/World%20Bank%20Commodities%20Price%20Data%20released%20on%202%20December%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/World%20Bank%20Commodities%20Price%20Data%20released%20on%202%20December%202022.pdf">World Bank&#39;s</a> <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/World%20Bank%20Commodities%20Price%20Data%20released%20on%202%20December%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/World%20Bank%20Commodities%20Price%20Data%20released%20on%202%20December%202022.pdf">quarterly average fertilizer price index</a> for low- and middle-income countries <em>(2010=100)</em> grew over the quarters to 215.2 in July-September 2022 from 129.1 in the corresponding period last year. It means that the quarterly average fertilizer price index soared y-o-y by almost 66.7 percent in July-September this year over the corresponding period last year. Kindly see table-1.&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">The <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/World%20Bank%20Commodities%20Price%20Data%20released%20on%202%20December%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/World%20Bank%20Commodities%20Price%20Data%20released%20on%202%20December%202022.pdf">annual average price</a> of <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/World%20Bank%20Commodities%20Price%20Data%20released%20on%202%20December%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/World%20Bank%20Commodities%20Price%20Data%20released%20on%202%20December%202022.pdf">diammonium phosphate (DAP)</a>&nbsp;almost doubled from US$ 312.4 per metric ton in January-December 2020 to US$ 601.0 per metric ton in January-December 2021. Kindly have a look at table-2.&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">The <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">data provided by the Ministry</a> <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">of Chemicals and Fertilizers</a> shows that the average international price of DAP <em>(cost and freight, i.e., CFR) </em>escalated from <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">US$ 682 per metric tonne</a> in October last year to <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">US$ 945 per metric tonne</a> in July this year. The DAP price has gone down to <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">US$ 722 per metric tonne in October 2022</a>. On a y-o-y basis, the price of DAP <em>(CFR)</em> went up by <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">5.87 percent in October 2022</a> over the corresponding period last year.&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify"><a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">Official data</a> also shows that the average international price of Muriate of Potash i.e., MoP (CFR) went up from <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">US$ 280 per metric tonne</a> in October last year to <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">US$ 590 per metric tonne</a> in March 2022. From March to October this year, the average international price of MoP (CFR) has remained at the same rate. On a y-o-y basis, the price of MoP (CFR) soared by 110.71 percent in October 2022 over the corresponding period last year.&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">Belarus is one of the significant <a href="https://www.newsclick.in/fertiliser-crisis-making-government-denial" title="https://www.newsclick.in/fertiliser-crisis-making-government-denial">exporters of MoP to India</a>. On the contrary, China has emerged as the most important exporter of DAP to us in the recent years.</p><p style="text-align:justify">India&#39;s import of DAP stood at <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202021%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202021%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">6.39 lakh metric tonne</a> (LMT) in <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202021%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202021%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">October 2021</a>, <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20November%202021%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20November%202021%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">6.86 LMT</a> in <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20November%202021%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20November%202021%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">November 2021</a>, <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20December%202021%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20December%202021%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">3.66 LMT</a> in <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20December%202021%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20December%202021%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">December 2021</a>, <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20January%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20January%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">2.45 LMT</a> in <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20January%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20January%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">January 2022</a>, <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20February%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20February%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">4.81 LMT</a> in <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20February%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20February%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">February 2022</a>, <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20March%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20March%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">7.25 LMT</a> in <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20March%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20March%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">March 2022</a>, <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20April%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20April%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">4.10 LMT</a> in <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20April%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20April%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">April 2022</a>, <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20May%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20May%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">1.95 LMT</a> in <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20May%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20May%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">May 2022</a>, <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20June%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20June%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">2.71 LMT</a> in <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20June%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20June%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">June 2022</a>, <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20July%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20July%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">3.64 LMT</a> in <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20July%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20July%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">July 2022</a>, <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20August%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20August%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">7.30 LMT</a> in <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20August%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20August%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">August 2022</a>, <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20September%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20September%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">8.55 LMT</a> in <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20September%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20September%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">September 2022</a>, and <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers%282%29.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers%282%29.pdf">14.7 LMT</a> in <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers%282%29.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers%282%29.pdf">October 2022</a>. &nbsp; &nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">The country&#39;s import of MoP for both industrial use and agricultural use stood at <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202021%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202021%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">1.82 LMT</a>&nbsp;in <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202021%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202021%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">October 2021</a>, <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20November%202021%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20November%202021%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">1.18 LMT</a> in <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20November%202021%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20November%202021%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">November 2021</a>, <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20December%202021%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20December%202021%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">1.79 lakh LMT</a> in <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20December%202021%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20December%202021%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">December 2021</a>, <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20January%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20January%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">3.4 LMT</a> in <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20January%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20January%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">January 2022</a>, <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20February%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20February%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">3.26 LMT</a> in <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20February%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20February%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">February 2022</a>, <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20March%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20March%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">0.53 LMT</a> in <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20March%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20March%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">March 2022</a>, <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20April%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20April%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">2.50 LMT</a> in <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20April%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20April%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">April 2022</a>, <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20May%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20May%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">1.80 LMT</a> in <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20May%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20May%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">May 2022</a>, <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20June%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20June%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">1.22 LMT</a> in <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20June%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20June%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">June 2022</a>, <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20July%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20July%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">1.80 LMT</a> in <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20July%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20July%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">July 2022</a>, <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20August%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20August%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">1.44 LMT</a> in <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20August%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20August%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">August 2022</a>, <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20September%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20September%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">2.26 LMT</a> in <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20September%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20September%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers.pdf">September 2022</a>, and <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers%282%29.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers%282%29.pdf">2.36 LMT</a> in <a href="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers%282%29.pdf" title="/upload/files/Monthly%20Bulletin%20month%20of%20October%202022%20for%20chemical%20fertilizers%282%29.pdf">October 2022</a>.&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">India&#39;s <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/PIB%20Import%20of%20fertilizers.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/PIB%20Import%20of%20fertilizers.pdf">import of NPK fertilizers</a> -- nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and potassium (K) -- too has more than doubled from 5.21 LMT to 13.9 LMT between 2016-17 and 2020-21. &nbsp; &nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify"><strong>Edible oils</strong></p><p style="text-align:justify">The <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/World%20Bank%20Commodities%20Price%20Data%20released%20on%202%20December%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/World%20Bank%20Commodities%20Price%20Data%20released%20on%202%20December%202022.pdf">World Bank&rsquo;s monthly average oils and meals price index</a> for low- and middle-income countries <em>(2010=100)</em> had declined from 129.3 to 126.8 between September and October this year, and went up to 129.6 in November. Please see table-1.&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">The <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/World%20Bank%20Commodities%20Price%20Data%20released%20on%202%20December%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/World%20Bank%20Commodities%20Price%20Data%20released%20on%202%20December%202022.pdf">World Bank&#39;s quarterly average</a> <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/World%20Bank%20Commodities%20Price%20Data%20released%20on%202%20December%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/World%20Bank%20Commodities%20Price%20Data%20released%20on%202%20December%202022.pdf">oils and meals price index</a> rose gradually over the quarters from 126.5 in July-September 2021 to 162.9 in April-June this year, and fell to 133.0 in July-September 2022. On a y-o-y basis, therefore, the quarterly average oils and meals price index for low- and middle-income countries (2010=100) grew by 5.14 percent in July-September 2022 over the corresponding period last year.&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">The World Bank&#39;s <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/World%20Bank%20Commodities%20Price%20Data%20released%20on%202%20December%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/World%20Bank%20Commodities%20Price%20Data%20released%20on%202%20December%202022.pdf">annual average oils and meals price</a> <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/World%20Bank%20Commodities%20Price%20Data%20released%20on%202%20December%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/World%20Bank%20Commodities%20Price%20Data%20released%20on%202%20December%202022.pdf">index</a> climbed up over the years from 77.5 in January-December 2019 to 89.8 in January-December 2020, and increased further to 127.1 in January-December 2021.</p><p style="text-align:justify">Among others, the <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/World%20Bank%20Commodities%20Price%20Data%20released%20on%202%20December%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/World%20Bank%20Commodities%20Price%20Data%20released%20on%202%20December%202022.pdf">quarterly average price of palm oil</a> <em>(included in the World Bank&#39;s non-energy index)</em> rose over the quarters to US$ 1,634 per metric ton in April-June 2022 from US$ 1,129 per metric ton in the July-September last year. The quarterly average price of palm oil decreased to US$ 997 per metric ton in July-September this year. The annual average of palm oil jumped from US$ 601 per metric ton in January-December 2019 to US$ 752 per metric ton in January-December 2020, and further to US$ 1,131 per metric ton in January-December 2021. Please have a look at table-2.&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">The major vegetable oils <em>(mostly edible oils) </em>imported <em>(in volume terms)</em> during 2021-22 were crude palm oil <em>(<a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/CACP%20Rabi%202023-24%20marketing%20season.png" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/CACP%20Rabi%202023-24%20marketing%20season.png">44.9 percent</a>)</em>, soybean oil <em>(<a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/CACP%20Rabi%202023-24%20marketing%20season.png" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/CACP%20Rabi%202023-24%20marketing%20season.png">27.2 percent</a>)</em>, and sunflower oil <em>(<a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/CACP%20Rabi%202023-24%20marketing%20season.png" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/CACP%20Rabi%202023-24%20marketing%20season.png">14.5 percent</a>)</em>.</p><p style="text-align:justify">Please note that the percentage share of vegetable oils <em>(mostly edible oils) </em>in India&#39;s total imports <em>(in US$ million value terms) </em>stood at <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/PIB%20Merchandise%20Trade%20dated%203%20Sep%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/PIB%20Merchandise%20Trade%20dated%203%20Sep%202022.pdf">3.06 percent in August 2022</a>. In the case of vegetable oils, the value of imports expanded from <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/PIB%20Merchandise%20Trade%20dated%203%20Sep%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/PIB%20Merchandise%20Trade%20dated%203%20Sep%202022.pdf">US$ 1,335.50 million</a> in August 2021 to <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/PIB%20Merchandise%20Trade%20dated%203%20Sep%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/PIB%20Merchandise%20Trade%20dated%203%20Sep%202022.pdf">US$ 1,890.43 million</a> in August 2022 i.e., by 41.55 percent.</p><p style="text-align:justify">Our country depends on imports of oilseeds and edibles oils to meet its domestic requirements. Around <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/Price%20Policy%20Rabi%20Crops%20Marketing%20Season%202023-24.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/Price%20Policy%20Rabi%20Crops%20Marketing%20Season%202023-24.pdf">60 percent of India&rsquo;s edible oils</a> requirement is met through imports. On average, each Indian consumes roughly <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/Price%20Policy%20Rabi%20Crops%20Marketing%20Season%202023-24.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/Price%20Policy%20Rabi%20Crops%20Marketing%20Season%202023-24.pdf">19 kg edible oil per year</a>. Although cultivation of various oilseed crops takes place in the country, the domestic production of edible oils is insufficient vis-&agrave;-vis domestic demand owing to low productivity, among other things.&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">In quantity terms, the country&#39;s import of vegetable oils&nbsp;<em>(mostly edible oils)</em> grew from <a href="/upload/files/CACP%20Rabi%202023-24%20marketing%20season.png" title="/upload/files/CACP%20Rabi%202023-24%20marketing%20season.png">8.4 million tonnes</a> to around <a href="/upload/files/CACP%20Rabi%202023-24%20marketing%20season.png" title="/upload/files/CACP%20Rabi%202023-24%20marketing%20season.png">14.3 million tonnes</a> between 2011-12 and 2021-22. In value terms, the import of edible oils has almost tripled from <a href="/upload/files/CACP%20Rabi%202023-24%20marketing%20season.png" title="/upload/files/CACP%20Rabi%202023-24%20marketing%20season.png">Rs. 46,334 crores</a> to <a href="/upload/files/CACP%20Rabi%202023-24%20marketing%20season.png" title="/upload/files/CACP%20Rabi%202023-24%20marketing%20season.png">Rs. 1,41,541 crores</a> between 2011-12 and 2021-22.</p><p style="text-align:justify">The <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/WPI%20released%20on%2014%20Nov%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/WPI%20released%20on%2014%20Nov%202022.pdf">data of the</a> <a href="https://im4change.org/upload/files/WPI%20released%20on%2014%20Nov%202022.pdf" title="https://im4change.org/upload/files/WPI%20released%20on%2014%20Nov%202022.pdf">Ministry of Commerce and Industry</a> shows that the WPI for oilseeds declined to 189.0 in October from 223.7 in May 2022. On a y-o-y basis, the WPI-based inflation rates for oilseeds were 7.08 percent in May, 2.74 percent in June, -4.06 percent in July, -13.48 percent in August, -16.55 percent in September, and -5.36 in October this year. Please look at graphs-1a and 1b.</p><p style="text-align:justify">Please <a href="http://im4change.org/news-alerts-57/it-s-time-to-protect-the-poor-and-the-migrants-from-rising-edible-oil-prices.html" title="http://im4change.org/news-alerts-57/it-s-time-to-protect-the-poor-and-the-migrants-from-rising-edible-oil-prices.html">click here</a> in order to know more about the edible oil situation in India during the COVID-19 pandemic.&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify"><strong><em>References</em></strong></p><p style="text-align:justify">Price Policy Rabi Crops Marketing Season 2023-24, Commission for Agricultural Costs &amp; Prices, Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers&#39; Welfare, please <a href="/upload/files/Price%20Policy%20Rabi%20Crops%20Marketing%20Season%202023-24.pdf" title="/upload/files/Price%20Policy%20Rabi%20Crops%20Marketing%20Season%202023-24.pdf">click here</a> to access&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">Commodity Prices and Markets, World Bank, please <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets" title="https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets">click here</a> to access &nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">World Bank Commodities Price Data (The Pink Sheet), released on December 2, 2022, please <a href="/upload/files/World%20Bank%20Commodities%20Price%20Data%20released%20on%202%20December%202022.pdf" title="/upload/files/World%20Bank%20Commodities%20Price%20Data%20released%20on%202%20December%202022.pdf">click here</a> to access&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">World Bank Commodity Price Data, monthly indices based on nominal US dollars, 2010=100, 1960 to present, released in December 2022, please <a href="https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/5d903e848db1d1b83e0ec8f744e55570-0350012021/related/CMO-Historical-Data-Monthly.xlsx" title="https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/5d903e848db1d1b83e0ec8f744e55570-0350012021/related/CMO-Historical-Data-Monthly.xlsx">click here</a> to access</p><p style="text-align:justify">Commodity Markets Outlook: Pandemic, war, recession: Drivers of aluminium and copper prices, released in October 2022, World Bank, please <a href="/upload/files/Commodity%20Markets%20Outlook%20October%202022.pdf" title="/upload/files/Commodity%20Markets%20Outlook%20October%202022.pdf">click here</a> to access&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">Index Numbers of Wholesale Price in India for the Month of October, 2022 (Base Year: 2011-12), released on November 14, 2022, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, please <a href="/upload/files/WPI%20released%20on%2014%20Nov%202022.pdf" title="/upload/files/WPI%20released%20on%2014%20Nov%202022.pdf">click here</a> to access&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">Monthly Bulletins, Ministry of Chemicals and Fertilizers, please <a href="https://www.fert.nic.in/monthly-bulletin" title="https://www.fert.nic.in/monthly-bulletin">click here</a> to access &nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">Press release: India&#39;s Foreign Trade in October 2022, released on November 15, 2022, Ministry of Commerce and Industry please <a href="/upload/files/Press-Release%20Ministry%20of%20Commerce%20October-2022.pdf" title="/upload/files/Press-Release%20Ministry%20of%20Commerce%20October-2022.pdf">click here</a> to access</p><p style="text-align:justify">Press release: India&#39;s Merchandise Trade: Preliminary Data of August 2022, released on September 3, 2022 Press Information Bureau, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, please <a href="/upload/files/PIB%20Merchandise%20Trade%20dated%203%20Sep%202022.pdf" title="/upload/files/PIB%20Merchandise%20Trade%20dated%203%20Sep%202022.pdf">click here</a> to access&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">Press release: Import of fertilizers in the country, released on March 29, 2022, Ministry of Chemicals and Fertilizers, please <a href="/upload/files/PIB%20Import%20of%20fertilizers.pdf" title="/upload/files/PIB%20Import%20of%20fertilizers.pdf">click here</a> to access&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">News alert: It&rsquo;s time to protect the poor and the migrants from rising edible oil prices, Inclusive Media for Change, published on Jun 11, 2021, please <a href="https://im4change.org/news-alerts-57/it-s-time-to-protect-the-poor-and-the-migrants-from-rising-edible-oil-prices.html" title="https://im4change.org/news-alerts-57/it-s-time-to-protect-the-poor-and-the-migrants-from-rising-edible-oil-prices.html">click here</a> to read more</p><p style="text-align:justify">Why the G7&rsquo;s oil price cap is unlikely to impact Russia -Anil Sasi, The Indian Express, December 6, 2022, please <a href="https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-economics/g7-russia-oil-price-cap-explained-8308305/" title="https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-economics/g7-russia-oil-price-cap-explained-8308305/">click here</a> to access &nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">Fertilizer Crisis a Making of Government&#39;s Denial -Suresh Garimella, Newsclick.in, March 10, 2022, please <a href="https://www.newsclick.in/fertiliser-crisis-making-government-denial" title="https://www.newsclick.in/fertiliser-crisis-making-government-denial">click here</a> to access &nbsp; &nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify">&nbsp;</p><p style="text-align:justify"><strong>Image Courtesy: <a href="https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/20445/908110ESW0WHIT0ctor0Report008008013.pdf?sequence=1&amp;isAllowed=y" title="https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/20445/908110ESW0WHIT0ctor0Report008008013.pdf?sequence=1&amp;isAllowed=y">Reforming the Indian Ports Sector</a></strong></p>                                                           
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What is in store for India’s imports?

Published on Dec 9, 2022   Modified on Dec 22, 2022

There is some respite expected for India in terms of prices of imported commodities. This may ease the depletion of its foreign exchange reserves. The country has faced a widening of its merchandise trade deficit from US$ -17.91 billion to US$ -26.91 billion between October 2021 and October 2022. The commodity price data provided by the World Bank in December 2022 (termed as The Pink Sheet) shows that energy prices plummeted by about -4.5 percent in November on a month-on-month (m-o-m) basis, thanks to a decline in the prices of coal (-12.2 percent), and natural gas in Europe (-8.5 percent).  On top of that, fertilizer prices crashed by -5.8 percent m-o-m in November this year. Raw material prices gained m-o-m in November by 2.1 percent, whereas metal prices saw a rise of around 5 percent thanks to nickel (16 percent), tin (9.6 percent), and copper (5.2 percent). Energy prices The World Bank’s monthly average energy price index for low- and middle-income countries (2010=100) had declined from 158.2 to 146.2 between September and October this year, and further went down to 139.6 in November. Table 1: World Bank commodity price indices for low- and middle-income countries (2010=100) Source: World Bank Commodities Price Data, The Pink Sheet, released on December 2, 2022, please click here to access  --- The World Bank's quarterly average energy price index surged gradually over the quarters from 100.6 in July-September 2021 to 167.6 in July-September this year. On a year-on-year (y-o-y) basis, therefore, the quarterly average energy price index for low- and middle-income countries went up by 66.6 percent in July-September 2022 over the corresponding period last year. Please see table-1.  Table 2: International prices of various commodities as per the World Bank  Notes and Abbreviations: a/ Included in the energy index; b/ Included in the non-energy index  Source: Same as table-1 --- The quarterly average price of Brent crude oil (included in the World Bank's energy index) shot up over the quarters to US$ 112.7 per barrel in April-June 2022 from US$ 73.0 per barrel in July-September last year. The quarterly average price of Brent crude oil fell to US$ 99.2 per barrel in July-September this year. Please see table-2.  The Commodity Markets Outlook brought out by the World Bank in October this year mentions that the crude oil prices are expected to ease in 2023-24. Brent crude oil prices are forecast to average US$ 92 per barrel in 2023 (close to their current level), before declining to US$ 80 per barrel in 2024. Chart 1: World Bank Commodity Price Index: Groups and weights Source: World Bank Prospects Group  --- It is worth noting that within the commodity group 'energy', the weight for crude oil (used in the World Bank Energy Price Index) is 84.6 percent, whereas that of coal and natural gas are 4.7 percent and 10.8 percent, respectively. Please consult chart-1.   It should be added that on December 6 this year, the Brent crude price climbed 60-70 cents a barrel in early trade. This happened following the proposal of imposing a price cap of US$ 60 per barrel on Russian seaborne oil by the Group of Seven (G7), European Union and Australia on December 5. As compared to US$ 85 per barrel for Brent crude, the Russian crude is trading at nearly US$ 68 per barrel. The estimated cost of production of Russia’s main crude variants such as the Urals, is nearly US$ 20-US$ 44 a barrel in that region. Hence, the price cap of US$ 60 per barrel on Russian seaborne oil is not going to have much impact on Russia's oil trade and profit margins. So far India is non-committal on any such pricing cap arrangement. Thanks to the price gap between Brent crude and Russian crude, India is now importing over 20 percent of its total requirement from Russia, which used to be less than 1 percent of its total crude need prior to the Russia-Ukraine war. Source: Index Numbers of Wholesale Price in India for the Month of October, 2022 (Base Year: 2011-12), released on November 14, 2022, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, please click here to access --- According to the data of the Ministry of Commerce and Industry, the wholesale price index (WPI) for crude petroleum declined to 133.9 in September from 173.5 in June 2022. However, the same has escalated to 151.6 in October. On a y-o-y basis, the WPI-based inflation rates for crude petroleum were 78.67 percent in May, 72.98 percent in June, 58.77 percent in July, 50.57 percent in August, 32.18 percent in September, and 30.69 percent in October this year. Please look at graphs-1a and 1b. It should be noted that the percentage share of petroleum, crude & products in India's total imports (in US$ million value terms) stood at 28.54 percent in August 2022. In the case of petroleum, crude and products, the value of imports expanded from US$ 9,443.19 million in August 2021 to US$ 17,606.06 million in August 2022 i.e., by 86.44 percent. Fertilizer prices India's Green Revolution-based farming is dependent on chemical fertilizers. The monthly average fertilizer index prepared by the World Bank had increased from 100.07 in February 2021 to 208.01 in December 2021. Due to the Russia-Ukraine war, the monthly average fertilizer index further climbed to 254.97 in April this year. Between October and November this year, the monthly fertilizer index fell by -5.8 percent. The World Bank's quarterly average fertilizer price index for low- and middle-income countries (2010=100) grew over the quarters to 215.2 in July-September 2022 from 129.1 in the corresponding period last year. It means that the quarterly average fertilizer price index soared y-o-y by almost 66.7 percent in July-September this year over the corresponding period last year. Kindly see table-1.  The annual average price of diammonium phosphate (DAP) almost doubled from US$ 312.4 per metric ton in January-December 2020 to US$ 601.0 per metric ton in January-December 2021. Kindly have a look at table-2.  The data provided by the Ministry of Chemicals and Fertilizers shows that the average international price of DAP (cost and freight, i.e., CFR) escalated from US$ 682 per metric tonne in October last year to US$ 945 per metric tonne in July this year. The DAP price has gone down to US$ 722 per metric tonne in October 2022. On a y-o-y basis, the price of DAP (CFR) went up by 5.87 percent in October 2022 over the corresponding period last year.  Official data also shows that the average international price of Muriate of Potash i.e., MoP (CFR) went up from US$ 280 per metric tonne in October last year to US$ 590 per metric tonne in March 2022. From March to October this year, the average international price of MoP (CFR) has remained at the same rate. On a y-o-y basis, the price of MoP (CFR) soared by 110.71 percent in October 2022 over the corresponding period last year.  Belarus is one of the significant exporters of MoP to India. On the contrary, China has emerged as the most important exporter of DAP to us in the recent years. India's import of DAP stood at 6.39 lakh metric tonne (LMT) in October 2021, 6.86 LMT in November 2021, 3.66 LMT in December 2021, 2.45 LMT in January 2022, 4.81 LMT in February 2022, 7.25 LMT in March 2022, 4.10 LMT in April 2022, 1.95 LMT in May 2022, 2.71 LMT in June 2022, 3.64 LMT in July 2022, 7.30 LMT in August 2022, 8.55 LMT in September 2022, and 14.7 LMT in October 2022.     The country's import of MoP for both industrial use and agricultural use stood at 1.82 LMT in October 2021, 1.18 LMT in November 2021, 1.79 lakh LMT in December 2021, 3.4 LMT in January 2022, 3.26 LMT in February 2022, 0.53 LMT in March 2022, 2.50 LMT in April 2022, 1.80 LMT in May 2022, 1.22 LMT in June 2022, 1.80 LMT in July 2022, 1.44 LMT in August 2022, 2.26 LMT in September 2022, and 2.36 LMT in October 2022.  India's import of NPK fertilizers -- nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and potassium (K) -- too has more than doubled from 5.21 LMT to 13.9 LMT between 2016-17 and 2020-21.     Edible oils The World Bank’s monthly average oils and meals price index for low- and middle-income countries (2010=100) had declined from 129.3 to 126.8 between September and October this year, and went up to 129.6 in November. Please see table-1.  The World Bank's quarterly average oils and meals price index rose gradually over the quarters from 126.5 in July-September 2021 to 162.9 in April-June this year, and fell to 133.0 in July-September 2022. On a y-o-y basis, therefore, the quarterly average oils and meals price index for low- and middle-income countries (2010=100) grew by 5.14 percent in July-September 2022 over the corresponding period last year.  The World Bank's annual average oils and meals price index climbed up over the years from 77.5 in January-December 2019 to 89.8 in January-December 2020, and increased further to 127.1 in January-December 2021. Among others, the quarterly average price of palm oil (included in the World Bank's non-energy index) rose over the quarters to US$ 1,634 per metric ton in April-June 2022 from US$ 1,129 per metric ton in the July-September last year. The quarterly average price of palm oil decreased to US$ 997 per metric ton in July-September this year. The annual average of palm oil jumped from US$ 601 per metric ton in January-December 2019 to US$ 752 per metric ton in January-December 2020, and further to US$ 1,131 per metric ton in January-December 2021. Please have a look at table-2.  The major vegetable oils (mostly edible oils) imported (in volume terms) during 2021-22 were crude palm oil (44.9 percent), soybean oil (27.2 percent), and sunflower oil (14.5 percent). Please note that the percentage share of vegetable oils (mostly edible oils) in India's total imports (in US$ million value terms) stood at 3.06 percent in August 2022. In the case of vegetable oils, the value of imports expanded from US$ 1,335.50 million in August 2021 to US$ 1,890.43 million in August 2022 i.e., by 41.55 percent. Our country depends on imports of oilseeds and edibles oils to meet its domestic requirements. Around 60 percent of India’s edible oils requirement is met through imports. On average, each Indian consumes roughly 19 kg edible oil per year. Although cultivation of various oilseed crops takes place in the country, the domestic production of edible oils is insufficient vis-à-vis domestic demand owing to low productivity, among other things.  In quantity terms, the country's import of vegetable oils (mostly edible oils) grew from 8.4 million tonnes to around 14.3 million tonnes between 2011-12 and 2021-22. In value terms, the import of edible oils has almost tripled from Rs. 46,334 crores to Rs. 1,41,541 crores between 2011-12 and 2021-22. The data of the Ministry of Commerce and Industry shows that the WPI for oilseeds declined to 189.0 in October from 223.7 in May 2022. On a y-o-y basis, the WPI-based inflation rates for oilseeds were 7.08 percent in May, 2.74 percent in June, -4.06 percent in July, -13.48 percent in August, -16.55 percent in September, and -5.36 in October this year. Please look at graphs-1a and 1b. Please click here in order to know more about the edible oil situation in India during the COVID-19 pandemic.  References Price Policy Rabi Crops Marketing Season 2023-24, Commission for Agricultural Costs & Prices, Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers' Welfare, please click here to access  Commodity Prices and Markets, World Bank, please click here to access   World Bank Commodities Price Data (The Pink Sheet), released on December 2, 2022, please click here to access  World Bank Commodity Price Data, monthly indices based on nominal US dollars, 2010=100, 1960 to present, released in December 2022, please click here to access Commodity Markets Outlook: Pandemic, war, recession: Drivers of aluminium and copper prices, released in October 2022, World Bank, please click here to access  Index Numbers of Wholesale Price in India for the Month of October, 2022 (Base Year: 2011-12), released on November 14, 2022, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, please click here to access  Monthly Bulletins, Ministry of Chemicals and Fertilizers, please click here to access   Press release: India's Foreign Trade in October 2022, released on November 15, 2022, Ministry of Commerce and Industry please click here to access Press release: India's Merchandise Trade: Preliminary Data of August 2022, released on September 3, 2022 Press Information Bureau, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, please click here to access  Press release: Import of fertilizers in the country, released on March 29, 2022, Ministry of Chemicals and Fertilizers, please click here to access  News alert: It’s time to protect the poor and the migrants from rising edible oil prices, Inclusive Media for Change, published on Jun 11, 2021, please click here to read more Why the G7’s oil price cap is unlikely to impact Russia -Anil Sasi, The Indian Express, December 6, 2022, please click here to access   Fertilizer Crisis a Making of Government's Denial -Suresh Garimella, Newsclick.in, March 10, 2022, please click here to access       Image Courtesy: Reforming the Indian Ports Sector

Tagged with: Brent crude oil Chemical Fertilizers Cooking Oils crude palm oil Crude petroleum Edible Oils Energy energy price index Exports Fertilizers foreign exchange reserves Imports Merchandise Trade Ministry of Commerce and Industry Muriate of Potash NPK fertilizers Petroleum soybean oil sunflower oil Vegetable Oils Wholesale Price Index World Bank

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• 9 of World's 10 most air-polluted cities in South Asia, deadly air causes 2 million premature deaths - World Bank
• Limited Room for Public Spending - Santosh Mehrotra
• India's wheat output may set new record of over 112 lakh tonnes in 2022-23 - PTI/Economic Times

 

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