-The Indian Express GDP estimates are advance figures, but by the time they are revised only staid economists will be interested in them Unless we simply dreamt it, demonetisation delivered a massive shock to the economy in early November, which continued well into December because of slow pace remonetisation. The ensuing liquidity crunch affected most informal economic activity and some formal business, and economists generally agreed that declines in demand and disruption...
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Database limited, more complete information by next year: Chief Statistician TCA Anant -Aanchal Magazine & Anil Sasi
-The Indian Express On the credibility of quarterly data releases, Anant underlined “it is a careful statistical exercise” and that in many areas, “more complete information would be available in many ways by next year”. Facing criticism that GDP growth estimates by his office of 7 per cent for the third quarter ending December 2016 sharply overshot most projections — even those in the Economic Survey and by the RBI — India’s...
More »Consumption mystery could be traced to piling up of inventories -Aanchal Magazine
-The Indian Express As per the methodology, since no direct data of expenditure is used, most of the GDP data is calculated based on output data The answer to the puzzling rise in Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) in the second advance estimate of GDP for 2016-17 despite the evident cash squeeze due to demonetisation may very well lie in the methodology used for calculating the new series of GDP. As per...
More »Holes in DeMo armour
-The Telegraph Mumbai: Prime Minister Narendra Modi could well choose to crow about the 7 per cent GDP growth in the third quarter of 2016-17 which, he believes, has blunted criticism about his demonetisation drive and its widely anticipated crippling impact on the economy. But analysts have started to focus attention on how the Central Statistics Office (CSO) "cooked" the numbers of the third quarter of 2015-16 to make the growth rate...
More »Five reasons why economists doubt India's October-December GDP growth of 7% -Raj Kumar Ray
-Hindustan Times New Delhi: India’s economic growth of 7% during October-December has sparked a debate on how output grew so fast at a time when the country was facing its biggest-ever cash crunch after Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced on November 8 the demonetisation exercise, which weeded out 86% of the currency notes in circulation. Economists and experts cite at least five reasons why the government data of a robust economic growth...
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