-Frontline.in Recently released data from the CSO, which claimed that demonetisation had had no significant impact on the performance of the economy, raise more questions than provide answers. Official data released by the Central Statistical Organisation (CSO) on the last day of February, which claimed that the national gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 7 per cent in the October-December period, the third quarter of 2016-17, came as a morale booster...
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Politically opportune data -Jayati Ghosh
-The Indian Express GDP estimates are advance figures, but by the time they are revised only staid economists will be interested in them Unless we simply dreamt it, demonetisation delivered a massive shock to the economy in early November, which continued well into December because of slow pace remonetisation. The ensuing liquidity crunch affected most informal economic activity and some formal business, and economists generally agreed that declines in demand and disruption...
More »Database limited, more complete information by next year: Chief Statistician TCA Anant -Aanchal Magazine & Anil Sasi
-The Indian Express On the credibility of quarterly data releases, Anant underlined “it is a careful statistical exercise” and that in many areas, “more complete information would be available in many ways by next year”. Facing criticism that GDP growth estimates by his office of 7 per cent for the third quarter ending December 2016 sharply overshot most projections — even those in the Economic Survey and by the RBI — India’s...
More »Holes in the security net -Anindita Adhikari & Inayat Anaita Sabhikhi
-The Indian Express Demonetisation shows India’s social welfare measures like MGNREGS to be worryingly patchy Following the announcement of demonetisation, reports of its devastating impact on informal sector workers, farmers and migrants began to pour in from across the country. Seeking evidence on two questions — do social security measures work in the face of such an economic shock, and do these programmes themselves face disruption because of demonetisation — we conducted...
More »Salt to the wound -Prabhat Patnaik
-The Indian Express Government could have undone the damage of demonetisation through the budget. The opportunity has been missed in deference to the whims of global finance. Since 97 per cent of the value of demonetised currency has returned to the banks, causing, contrary to the government’s expectations, very little extinction of currency, it is obvious that demonetisation has totally failed to achieve its purported objective of denting the black economy. It...
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