-The Indian Express New GDP back series does what the government needs it to — shows that growth during its term has been higher than during the UPA regime. Controversy over the growth performance of the Indian economy took another turn with The Indian Express breaking the story about Niti Aayog not allowing the back series to be announced three years back because it showed a higher growth rate during the...
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A self-goal for India -Santosh Mehrotra
-The Hindu There are substantive reasons for the questions being raised about the new GDP back series Without in any way impugning the integrity of the Central Statistics Office (CSO), most knowledgeable people are asking: if most important indicators of the Indian economy were better in 2004-2014, how is the GDP growth rate higher in estimates just released (7.4% per annum since 2014 and only 6.7% per annum in 2005-2014)? This is...
More »Decoding the CSO's backcasting of national income data -KR Srivats
-The Hindu Business Line ‘GDP growth rates for 2004-11 were bound to come down’ New Delhi: “You can slice and dice the data anyway you want, but India’s GDP growth rates between 2004 and 2011 were bound to come down in the backcasting computation effort,” said TCA Anant, former Chief Statistician of India. When the new base year of 2011-12 came out, the Central Statistics Office (CSO) had documented and recognised that the...
More »Is the New GDP series a travesty of statistics? -Himanshu
-Livemint.com India’s statistical system suffered credibility shocks when the GDP series was released Last week, the NITI Aayog released the back series of gross domestic product (GDP) data on base 2011-12 for the years 2004-05 to 2011-12. The series was eagerly awaited by researchers as well as policymakers ever since the base was revised in January 2015. This release follows an unofficial release of the report of the committee on real...
More »India's GDP Debate: What Explains Reduced Growth Rates Under the UPA? -R Nagaraj
-TheWire.in How correct was it for the Central Statistics Office to have selectively used contested methods for preparing the back series data? The spotlight is back on India’s growth rates, three years after the gross domestic product (GDP) data using the 2011-12 base year was released. Before trying to delve into the controversy surrounding the back-series data – which saw GDP growth from 2006-2012 reduce significantly – it is important to understand how...
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