-Frontline.in Recently released data from the CSO, which claimed that demonetisation had had no significant impact on the performance of the economy, raise more questions than provide answers. Official data released by the Central Statistical Organisation (CSO) on the last day of February, which claimed that the national gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 7 per cent in the October-December period, the third quarter of 2016-17, came as a morale booster...
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Demonetisation and the GDP: knock-out punch or mild tap? -Aarati Krishnan
-The Hindu The CSO has been consistent with its methods, allowing little room for suspicion of window dressing. Did demonetisation deal a knock-out punch to the Indian economy? Or was it just a mild tap from which it is already recovering? This debate should have been settled with the latest second advance estimates from the Central Statistics Office (CSO) which peg FY17 GDP growth at 7.1%. But commentators who believe that the economy...
More »Politically opportune data -Jayati Ghosh
-The Indian Express GDP estimates are advance figures, but by the time they are revised only staid economists will be interested in them Unless we simply dreamt it, demonetisation delivered a massive shock to the economy in early November, which continued well into December because of slow pace remonetisation. The ensuing liquidity crunch affected most informal economic activity and some formal business, and economists generally agreed that declines in demand and disruption...
More »Database limited, more complete information by next year: Chief Statistician TCA Anant -Aanchal Magazine & Anil Sasi
-The Indian Express On the credibility of quarterly data releases, Anant underlined “it is a careful statistical exercise” and that in many areas, “more complete information would be available in many ways by next year”. Facing criticism that GDP growth estimates by his office of 7 per cent for the third quarter ending December 2016 sharply overshot most projections — even those in the Economic Survey and by the RBI — India’s...
More »Harvardian estimates not wrong; cash ban cut Rs 1.2 lakh crore from nominal GDP -Dhananjay Sinha
-The Economic Times The enigma around the GDP growth numbers has compounded, as it understated the impact of demonetisation. Eliminating the dissonance created by large revisions, nominal GDP growth in December quarter may have been impacted by 240 bp and 320 bp on a year-on-year and sequential basis, respectively. The 7 per cent Real GDP Growth print for Q3FY17 released by the CSO on Tuesday gives an impression that the demonetisation shock...
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